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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 1= 0:29AM ET Commentary last updated: Thursday, Oct 25, 2001 at 09:51AM ET = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote Congratulatio= ns Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUIL= A/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: = AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Tem= perature' Today: Thursday, October 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta= Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 79 +4 FRCC(SE) 85 -1 MAAC(NE) 71 += 2 MAIN(CTR) 48 -2 MAPP(HP) 41 -2 NPCC(NE) 67 +3 SERC(SE) 77 +2 SPP(SP) 64 N= C WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 52 -1 WSCC(SW) 75 NC Range Standard Deviation= [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 44 63 51 49 73 71 73= Max 49 52 67 55 55 79 78 78 Min 38 36 61 47 39 69 61 68 Range 11 16 6 8 16= 10 17 10 StD-P 2.4 3.9 2.1 2.5 4.8 3.5 4.8 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 = 10 Day 1-5 Discussion: Powerhouse storm is about to exit. The coldest = air of the season is about to enter. A significant warm up will commence la= te in the period. The "storm of the century", "Superstorm", or whatever yo= u want to call yesterdays event was over-hyped a bit in my opinion, but sig= nificant in some respects. There were some large tornadoes in Northern Indi= ana and the surface low pressure center had one of the lowest readings I ha= ve seen in an October storm. Otherwise, it was a squall line of t-storms wi= th a turn to colder and windier weather, things we have certainly seen befo= re and will see again. The cold front should reach the Atlantic coastline l= ater today and another line of t-storms may certainly go up along it. We al= so have some measurable snow in Minnesota this morning and could see "some"= lake effect snows! through Friday. Once this storm is off the field, the o= nly inclement weather threats appear to be the PNW from a trough in the Gul= f of Alaska and in Florida from something tropical. I do not mean from a na= med storm or hurricane, but merely that the disturbance originated in the C= aribbean. A large polar air mass has swept in behind this storm insuring a = drier and cooler than normal pattern from the Mississippi River and East th= rough the weekend. The Plains start to warm early next week is ridging star= ts to evolve in response to troughing off the West Coast. Neither of these = features look particularly strong in the short term and overall weather in = the West has a benign look to it. Tomorrow: Friday, October 26, 2001 Syn= crasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(S= E) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 52 NC MAIN(CTR) 48 NC MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 49 -1 SERC(= SE) 65 -1 SPP(SP) 66 NC WSCC(NW) 61 +1 WSCC(RK) 60 +2 WSCC(SW) 76 +1 Ra= nge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 4= 0 47 46 57 55 63 69 73 Max 47 58 50 61 63 70 78 77 Min 35 38 41 52 44 56 58= 68 Range 12 20 9 9 19 14 20 9 StD-P 2.8 5.1 2.5 2.8 5.8 3.8 5.3 2.8 Count = 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Day 3: Saturday, October 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Ch= oice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 -2 M= AAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 47 NC MAPP(HP) 49 -1 NPCC(NE) 48 +2 SERC(SE) 59 NC = SPP(SP) 65 NC WSCC(NW) 55 NC WSCC(RK) 66 +2 WSCC(SW) 72 NC Range Standa= rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 56 43 51= 61 56 69 69 Max 47 62 48 57 68 61 74 73 Min 34 49 40 47 53 50 60 65 Range = 13 13 8 10 15 11 14 8 StD-P 3.5 4.4 2.7 2.7 5.2 3.0 4.6 2.2 Count 8 8 8 8 8= 8 8 8 Day 4: Sunday, October 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 50 NC MAIN(= CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 59 +2 NPCC(NE) 47 NC SERC(SE) 60 -1 SPP(SP) 70 +1 WSCC(= NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 62 +1 WSCC(SW) 70 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 57 41 48 58 54 69 64 Max 55= 63 48 54 65 61 75 70 Min 42 51 37 45 52 49 64 62 Range 13 12 11 9 13 12 11= 8 StD-P 3.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 4.1 3.4 3.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Mon= day, October 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 5= 7 +1 ERCOT(SP) 76 +1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP)= 54 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +1 SERC(SE) 66 -1 SPP(SP) 70 -1 WSCC(NW) 55 +1 WSCC(RK) = 58 -1 WSCC(SW) 68 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT = HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 54 47 49 54 58 69 63 Max 56 58 54 55 61 67 75 = 69 Min 45 50 43 46 49 52 63 60 Range 11 8 11 9 12 15 12 9 StD-P 4.3 3.2 3.1= 2.2 3.6 4.7 4.3 2.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: I don't= have a lot of change from yesterdays 6-10 day outlook other than advancing= things by one day. Warming that kicks in for the Plains advances East.Rela= tive to normal this will be more pronounced initially in the North than the= South though by late in the period all will share. I mentioned an atmosphe= ric turnaround yesterday and still feel there is potential by the middle of= next week to become almost as warm as the recent warm episode. The pattern= remains progressive, but not as volatile as recent weeks. Charts show anot= her trough pushing through the Plains and Eastern U.S. but it does not have= the amplitude that the current one does. Therefore, it can't tap the arcti= c air and bring it down. I have a fairly high confidence level that the fir= st week of November will be mild for the nation as a whole. Day 6: Tuesday= , October 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 57 -= 2 ERCOT(SP) 75 NC FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE) 59 NC MAIN(CTR) 56 -1 MAPP(HP) 52= -4 NPCC(NE) 53 -2 SERC(SE) 69 NC SPP(SP) 71 +2 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 56 = +2 WSCC(SW) 67 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP = NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 56 47 48 51 60 66 61 Max 55 58 54 54 57 71 74 68 = Min 47 54 44 44 48 57 60 58 Range 8 4 10 10 9 14 14 10 StD-P 2.7 1.5 3.0 2.= 6 2.6 4.1 4.6 2.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 7: Wednesday, October 31, 200= 1 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 58 -1 ERCOT(SP) 76 -1= FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -4 MAIN(CTR) 58 NC MAPP(HP) 55 -2 NPCC(NE) 50 -= 5 SERC(SE) 70 NC SPP(SP) 68 +1 WSCC(NW) 54 NC WSCC(RK) 54 NC WSCC(SW) 67 +1= Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW= Mean 53 55 46 48 46 64 68 62 Max 57 58 52 54 55 72 74 67 Min 50 52 41 44 4= 0 61 65 58 Range 7 6 11 10 15 11 9 9 StD-P 2.1 2.2 4.1 3.0 6.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 = Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Day 8: Thursday, November 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 NC ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 73 -1 MA= AC(NE) 57 +1 MAIN(CTR) 55 NC MAPP(HP) 53 -1 NPCC(NE) 51 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 S= PP(SP) 65 +4 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 +2 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 54 54 47 = 47 68 71 64 Max 58 57 56 54 54 73 75 68 Min 54 52 53 43 42 67 68 61 Range 4= 5 3 11 12 6 7 7 StD-P 1.0 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 = 5 Day 9: Friday, November 2, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vo= latility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] ECAR(CTR) 57 +1 ERCOT(SP) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 -1 MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR)= 58 +3 MAPP(HP) 49 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 -1 SERC(SE) 65 +1 SPP(SP) 62 +2 WSCC(NW) = 46 -2 WSCC(RK) 39 +1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I= MAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 50 55 47 44 67 69 65 Max 56 59 = 55 49 55 69 69 69 Min 52 46 54 46 38 66 69 62 Range 4 13 1 3 17 3 0 7 StD-P= 1.4 4.4 0.6 1.1 5.5 0.9 0.2 2.7 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Day 10: Saturday, = November 3, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 55 +3= ERCOT(SP) 65 -1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 61 +2 MAIN(CTR) 50 +4 MAPP(HP) 49 = +3 NPCC(NE) 56 -1 SERC(SE) 66 NC SPP(SP) 55 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 -6 WSCC(RK) 47 += 1 WSCC(SW) 65 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP N= E NW RK SE SP SW Mean 48 45 54 43 40 65 62 57 Max 52 51 57 45 48 67 65 64 M= in 39 36 49 38 31 62 59 49 Range 13 15 8 7 17 5 6 15 StD-P 4.8 6.0 3.5 2.7 = 8.1 2.5 1.6 7.3 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around = and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? = Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbene= rgy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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