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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 08, 2002 at 07= :39AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 08, 2002 at 10:11AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulati= ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI= LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:= AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Ado= be Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of= 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 67 +1 FRCC(SE) 56 NC MAAC(NE) 36 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 +1 MA= PP(HP) 49 +3 NPCC(NE) 29 +1 SERC(SE) 48 NC SPP(SP) 64 +4 WSCC(NW) 49 +3 WSC= C(RK) 53 +3 WSCC(SW) 64 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 49 28 45 42 45 59 59 Max 42 60 34 49 53 = 52 69 64 Min 35 43 24 42 35 41 52 55 Range 7 17 10 7 18 11 17 9 StD-P 2.6 5= .8 2.5 2.2 5.4 3.1 4.9 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discuss= ion: Thaw underway for the short term. Longer range models continue to in= sist (as I continue to resist) that real arctic air arrives later in the mo= nth. There is some potential for yet another winter storm in the East late= in the five day period. The point in question is how much cold air is avai= lable or is it just another cold rain for many folks. That will be answered= later in the week. The overall pattern definitely looks warmer for now tho= ugh some of this energy goes into melting snow cover rather than warming th= e air. The absence of snow in the Plains is one reason why they are so much= warmer relative to normal than areas farther East. But, most of the countr= y goes warmer than normal before the end of the week. The last to catch on = to this trend is the Southeast. Tomorrow: Wednesday, January 9, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 45 +2 ERCOT(SP) 73 +1 FRCC(SE) 62 NC MAAC(NE) 42 -2 MAIN(CTR) 51 +3 MA= PP(HP) 45 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 -1 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 63 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WSC= C(RK) 42 -1 WSCC(SW) 63 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 45 36 42 39 54 65 58 Max 48 59 41 49 52 = 63 75 64 Min 39 38 32 39 32 50 58 53 Range 9 21 9 10 20 13 17 11 StD-P 2.3 = 5.8 2.2 2.8 5.5 3.0 3.7 3.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to Se= e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Thursday= , January 10, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge= ) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +4= MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 35 NC NPCC(NE) 43 +4 SERC(SE) 60 NC SPP(SP) 49 -3= WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 37 -5 WSCC(SW) 62 NC Range Standard Deviation = [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 38 40 41 30 58 59 57 = Max 47 49 45 46 43 62 69 62 Min 35 33 36 37 19 57 54 52 Range 12 16 9 9 24 = 5 15 10 StD-P 2.9 4.7 1.7 2.1 6.1 1.3 3.9 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12= Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix= Day 4: Friday, January 11, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vol= atility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on= image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 -1 FRCC(SE) 70 = NC MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 32 -2 NPCC(NE) 36 +4 SERC(SE) 51= -3 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 45 +1 WSCC(RK) 41 -1 WSCC(SW) 62 NC Range St= andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 3= 7 43 32 55 51 58 Max 39 41 44 45 41 63 61 62 Min 32 34 33 39 23 52 42 54 Ra= nge 7 7 11 6 18 11 19 8 StD-P 2.0 2.5 3.1 1.4 5.1 2.9 5.8 2.4 Count 10 10 1= 0 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V= olatility Matrix Day 5: Saturday, January 12, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -1 ERCOT(SP) = 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -4 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 38 -1 NPCC(NE)= 32 +2 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 51 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 44 +1 WSCC(SW) = 61 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 34 39 32 42 37 48 51 57 Max 36 45 39 44 43 58 59 62 Min 32 36 29= 39 30 43 42 53 Range 4 9 10 5 13 15 17 9 StD-P 1.2 2.6 3.0 1.8 3.4 4.1 4.8= 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast= Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: I am not as bul= lish as the charts (and some forecasters) in regards to cold air developing= in the medium range period and beyond. I am not saying next week and the w= eek after will not be colder than this week, they likely will be. But, I co= ntinue to have questions as to intensity and Southern extent of whatever de= velops. First, we have yet to see any real polar flow so far this winter. S= econd, lack of deep snow cover in the Northern U.S. tends to inhibit bitter= cold. Third, and perhaps most important to me is the lack of high surface = pressures developing over Canada. Now, they may develop eventually, but I w= ant to see it first. Finally, most models have more of a West to East confi= guration at the jet stream level rather than a NW to SE orientation straigh= t out of the arctic. Given these conditions and recent history I! am just n= ot ready yet to pronounce any major cold developing. In fact, I would expec= t the Gulf Coast and SE to actually run warmer than normal through the 20't= h of the month. The Plains, Lakes and NE probably go back to below normal l= evels, but not excessively so. It looks comparable to the past couple of we= eks. The West is expected to take on a temperature profile that closely res= embles normal Mid-January levels. Day 6: Sunday, January 13, 2002 Clic= k Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta= Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +5 ERCOT(SP) 65 +2 = FRCC(SE) 62 -5 MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 38 +7 MAPP(HP) 35 +7 NPCC(NE) 34 +1= SERC(SE) 53 -3 SPP(SP) 53 +3 WSCC(NW) 37 -4 WSCC(RK) 36 -2 WSCC(SW) 58 -2 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW = Mean 36 39 32 36 34 48 54 55 Max 37 44 37 44 42 54 62 62 Min 34 35 28 28 23= 44 50 49 Range 3 9 9 16 19 10 12 13 StD-P 1.0 2.4 2.3 3.9 6.0 3.7 3.4 3.5 = Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Monday, January 14, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice= : Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +6 ERCOT(SP= ) 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 +2 MAAC(NE) 45 +6 MAIN(CTR) 36 +6 MAPP(HP) 27 +3 NPCC(N= E) 37 +6 SERC(SE) 57 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 -5 WSCC(RK) 31 -4 WSCC(SW= ) 56 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK S= E SP SW Mean 35 30 37 33 30 53 57 53 Max 38 42 39 41 42 59 63 61 Min 32 20 = 34 26 21 50 52 46 Range 6 22 5 15 21 9 11 15 StD-P 1.9 5.3 1.8 4.2 6.4 2.0 = 3.5 4.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 Syncras= y's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 += 5 ERCOT(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 62 -3 MAAC(NE) 37 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 2= 3 -1 NPCC(NE) 34 +19 SERC(SE) 50 -1 SPP(SP) 54 +5 WSCC(NW) 20 -9 WSCC(RK) 2= 0 -8 WSCC(SW) 42 -5 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT H= P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 27 37 31 30 55 58 50 Max 35 33 41 38 35 59 61 5= 8 Min 27 21 35 20 23 52 53 42 Range 8 12 6 18 12 7 8 16 StD-P 2.0 2.6 1.4 5= .9 3.8 2.5 3.2 4.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, January 16, 20= 02 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] EC= AR(CTR) 43 +8 ERCOT(SP) 68 +5 FRCC(SE) 64 -4 MAAC(NE) 39 +4 MAIN(CTR) 41 +6= MAPP(HP) 22 -6 NPCC(NE) 29 +16 SERC(SE) 54 -2 SPP(SP) 56 +3 WSCC(NW) 20 -6= WSCC(RK) 13 -8 WSCC(SW) 40 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]= Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 25 33 29 27 54 59 47 Max 37 28 37 37= 35 58 66 56 Min 21 17 29 20 15 47 51 40 Range 16 11 8 17 20 11 15 16 StD-P= 4.2 3.3 2.2 6.0 7.4 2.6 3.6 4.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See E= ach Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thursday,= January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)= [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 -1 ERCOT(SP) 63 +3 FRCC(SE) 66 -2 MAAC(NE) 47 +2 = MAIN(CTR) 24 -13 MAPP(HP) 15 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +11 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 35 -= 8 WSCC(NW) 25 -4 WSCC(RK) 13 NC WSCC(SW) 39 -5 Range Standard Deviation= [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 21 29 26 20 52 55 39= Max 27 28 42 28 26 61 58 45 Min 20 16 15 25 13 42 49 37 Range 7 12 27 3 13= 19 9 8 StD-P 2.5 4.5 8.7 1.1 4.7 6.1 3.2 1.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click H= ere to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trad= er Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays= , RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.s= yncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] = =09 =09=09=09
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