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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 07= :39AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 09:08AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulati= ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI= LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:= AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Ado= be Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of= 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(= CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 67 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MA= PP(HP) 24 +1 NPCC(NE) 38 NC SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 52 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSC= C(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] R= eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 38 32 28 54 58 50 Max 34 28 41 37 32 = 61 66 56 Min 27 22 33 27 23 50 54 46 Range 7 6 8 10 9 11 12 10 StD-P 1.7 1.= 9 2.0 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.9 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussi= on: The battle rages on between the Hudson Bay polar vortex and the Cari= bbean ridge. While widespread cold is still not likely, widespread stormine= ss is. I don't expect any large storms during the period, but a series of= weak to moderate ones appear likely. With the jet stream in a zonal flow, = it gets difficult to bring up much in the way of Gulf moisture. Therefore, = precipitation production is more a function of the dynamics of the storm it= self. Bottom line, nothing heavy for a while. This zonal flow is also keepi= ng the polar and subtropical jet streams separate and distinct. There is pl= enty of cold air now on this side of the pole in Canada waiting for an excu= se to come South. but, it runs into a wall in the Northern U.S. Any buckle = of the jet stream looks to be confined to the Western U.S. over the next se= veral ! days and probably longer. That trough in the West looks fairly weak= so the temperature departures from normal are slight. Tomorrow: Wednes= day, January 16, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enla= rge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 +1 ERCOT(SP) 68 -1 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 41= NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +4 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +1 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 49= +3 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 23 -2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2 Range Standard Deviati= on [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 33 32 21 55 61 = 49 Max 32 27 40 35 32 60 67 54 Min 27 22 27 26 13 50 57 44 Range 5 5 13 9 1= 9 10 10 10 StD-P 1.2 1.3 3.8 2.7 4.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14= 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat= rix Day 3: Thursday, January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE)= 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 27 NC MAPP(HP) 19 NC NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE= ) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 = 22 35 32 21 57 56 49 Max 29 25 38 37 25 61 64 53 Min 23 17 32 28 15 54 52 4= 5 Range 6 8 6 9 10 7 12 8 StD-P 1.9 2.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 Count 12 12= 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the= Volatility Matrix Day 4: Friday, January 18, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 31 -1 ERCOT(SP) = 63 -1 FRCC(SE) 77 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 NC MAIN(CTR) 26 +1 MAPP(HP) 15 -1 NPCC(NE)= 30 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) = 52 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 23 22 29 32 20 56 56 48 Max 26 27 35 35 27 62 59 53 Min 18 17 24= 26 11 51 53 43 Range 8 10 11 9 16 11 6 10 StD-P 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 5.7 3.3 1.= 4 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Saturday, January 19, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 58 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MAAC(NE) 37 +2 MAIN(CTR) 30 +1 MAPP= (HP) 25 NC NPCC(NE) 28 NC SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 42 NC WSCC(NW) 38 -3 WSCC(= RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 27 29 33 22 57 56 48 Max 34 32 33 38 29 62= 63 53 Min 23 22 23 28 14 54 50 43 Range 11 10 10 10 15 8 13 10 StD-P 3.6 3= .7 2.3 1.9 4.9 2.3 3.2 2.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discus= sion: The 6-10 day outlook in my view features more of the same. There is = frustration in that Day 10 models continue to show the Southward progressio= n of arctic cold, but without any real change in the upper level flow patte= rns. While I recognize cold air by weight can flow South on its own, it is = tough to get very far South. The NWS 6-10 day outlook is warm virtually eve= rywhere East of the Rockies. I am inclined to trim back the Northern part o= f that to allow for that slow South drift of arctic air. In addition this p= attern may grow more favorable for Great Lakes enhanced snows. But, without= a large surface High to press South out of the Yukon and with the Caribbea= n ridge still exerting an influence, I cannot see any large scale cold outb= reaks developing. Day 6: Sunday, January 20, 2002 Click Here for Syncr= asy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MA= AC(NE) 38 -1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 30 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 S= PP(SP) 46 NC WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 54 -1 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 29 30 35 = 26 58 56 48 Max 33 33 38 41 33 62 62 54 Min 25 24 25 30 17 54 49 44 Range 8= 9 13 11 16 8 13 10 StD-P 2.2 2.1 3.8 2.3 5.1 1.8 3.4 3.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9= 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Ma= trix Day 7: Monday, January 21, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) = 78 +2 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MAIN(CTR) 36 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +7 NPCC(NE) 36 +4 SERC(SE)= 58 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range= Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 3= 2 31 35 30 59 57 49 Max 36 37 38 40 37 66 61 57 Min 28 30 24 32 24 55 52 45= Range 8 7 14 8 13 11 9 12 StD-P 2.3 1.8 3.6 2.6 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 Count 9 9 = 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volati= lity Matrix Day 8: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta= Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +9 ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 = FRCC(SE) 72 +3 MAAC(NE) 40 +9 MAIN(CTR) 38 NC MAPP(HP) 33 -6 NPCC(NE) 33 +4= SERC(SE) 62 +14 SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 27 -3 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC(SW) 45 +2= Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW= Mean 35 32 34 34 28 62 61 49 Max 38 35 40 40 36 65 64 56 Min 31 28 29 27 2= 2 58 57 45 Range 7 7 11 13 14 7 7 11 StD-P 2.1 1.4 2.9 4.5 4.7 1.9 1.6 4.1 = Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT= (SP) 57 -9 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 55 +19 MAIN(CTR) 39 -7 MAPP(HP) 21 -16 N= PCC(NE) 41 +10 SERC(SE) 64 +6 SPP(SP) 43 -13 WSCC(NW) 30 +3 WSCC(RK) 13 -6 = WSCC(SW) 43 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 39 34 25 62 57 49 Max 38 37 47 39 37 66 63 55 Min= 29 23 34 29 12 58 52 43 Range 9 14 13 10 25 8 11 12 StD-P 2.2 3.9 4.7 3.6 = 8.1 2.2 3.3 4.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forec= ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thursday, January 24, 2002= Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR= (CTR) 24 -25 ERCOT(SP) 41 -14 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 51 -3 MAIN(CTR) 15 -2= 6 MAPP(HP) 18 -10 NPCC(NE) 44 -2 SERC(SE) 50 -12 SPP(SP) 39 -4 WSCC(NW) 35 = +3 WSCC(RK) 28 +10 WSCC(SW) 51 +6 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMA= GE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 29 39 33 21 52 42 42 Max 29 34 46= 38 26 57 50 51 Min 16 23 32 29 15 47 38 34 Range 13 11 14 9 11 10 12 17 St= D-P 4.4 4.2 5.7 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.3 6.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to Se= e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary= is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowW= all? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.co= m or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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