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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 10= :34AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Nov 27, 2001 at 09:38AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulati= ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI= LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:= AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Te= mperature' Today: Tuesday, November 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 57 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 -= 1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 58 +1 MAIN(CTR) 40 -1 MAPP(HP) 26 NC NPCC(NE) 51 = +2 SERC(SE) 70 +1 SPP(SP) 36 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -1 WSCC(SW) 50 N= C Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 43 21 50 34 18 69 50 45 Max 47 24 54 40 22 71 53 51 Min 40 17 48 29 = 14 66 46 40 Range 7 7 6 11 8 5 7 11 StD-P 1.3 1.7 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 C= ount 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used = Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Very stormy pattern fo= r the next few days as Canadian cold interacts with Atlantic warmth. A ser= ies of strong storms are expected to run through the Continental U.S. durin= g the five-day period. One has already produced heavy snows in the Northern= Plains and is producing another round of strong t-storms along the Gulf co= ast. The cold air has pushed far enough South through the Plains to produce= some snows into Northern Texas today. This cold is having a difficult time= pushing east thanks to a strong SE U.S. ridge. There will be somewhat of a= n eastern push later in the week, but with a sizeable weakening as it occur= s. The next in the series of storms for the West mid to late week appears t= o be a powerhouse. Rain along the coast will be measured in inches (primari= ly from San Francisco North), mountain snows! will be in feet and all of th= is will be accompanied by strong winds. The deep trough in the West will ke= ep temperatures all through the region below to much below normal. The extr= eme East remains above seasonal norms while the rest of the country sees a = fair amount of fluctuation on daily temperatures depending upon their locat= ion in respect to these storms. Tomorrow: Wednesday, November 28, 2001 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(C= TR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP) 43 -4 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 58 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +2 MAP= P(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +2 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 31 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC= (RK) 25 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Re= g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 21 50 37 20 69 40 45 Max 42 27 54 41 30 7= 1 49 52 Min 34 18 48 32 12 66 32 39 Range 8 9 6 9 18 5 17 13 StD-P 1.3 1.6 = 1.1 2.4 3.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 Count 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Click Here to See Ea= ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Thursday, No= vember 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 57 +7 ERCOT(SP) 54 -2 FRCC(SE) 80 +2 MAAC(NE) 62 NC MA= IN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 45 -3 SERC(SE) 63 +3 SPP(SP) 40 -4 WS= CC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 39 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IM= AGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 29 53 40 30 65 41 47 Max= 44 36 59 45 39 70 49 53 Min 35 23 50 38 26 62 33 44 Range 9 13 9 7 13 8 16= 9 StD-P 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.7 3.0 1.9 4.8 2.3 Count 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Clic= k Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix D= ay 4: Friday, November 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatil= ity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on ima= ge to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 63 -3 FRCC(SE) 78 +3 M= AAC(NE) 58 +3 MAIN(CTR) 43 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 +3 NPCC(NE) 54 +4 SERC(SE) 61 +1 = SPP(SP) 51 -2 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 39 +2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2 Range Standa= rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 35 52 36= 31 59 53 48 Max 42 40 58 44 40 67 59 54 Min 35 32 48 33 26 56 46 44 Range = 7 8 10 11 14 11 13 10 StD-P 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.7 3.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9= 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 5: Saturday, December 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Te= mp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 47 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 NC FRC= C(SE) 77 +3 MAAC(NE) 54 +1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +2 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 49 NC SE= RC(SE) 63 +2 SPP(SP) 52 NC WSCC(NW) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea= n 40 34 44 39 29 60 57 49 Max 42 41 53 44 41 65 63 56 Min 37 31 39 35 24 56= 48 46 Range 5 10 14 9 17 9 15 10 StD-P 1.7 3.5 3.6 2.2 4.9 2.8 4.3 3.1 Cou= nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the= Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 day period it is safe= to say will be less active than the short range. That's not much of a stre= tch though given the magnitude of short-term storms. The overall pattern do= es not change much with some degree of trough still expected in the West. W= e will probably beat down the SE ridge somewhat this period. It still looks= doubtful to me that we would see any sustainable cold air very far South i= nto the U.S. In fact, the trend in the arctic regions appears to be one of = cooling during this period. Typically when this happens, the result is one = of warming in the Southern half of Canada. I don't see a major warm up and = in fact many areas of the Lower 48 will be cooler than recent weeks. Howeve= r, in a relative to normal sense, I anticipate most areas to run near or sl= ightly above normal through ! the first week of December. Day 6: Sunday,= December 2, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge= ) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 +5 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +3 MAAC(NE) 51 +5= MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP) 39 +6 NPCC(NE) 45 +2 SERC(SE) 60 +3 SPP(SP) 55 +1= WSCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 43 +1 WSCC(SW) 58 -1 Range Standard Deviation = [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 38 37 45 38 33 60 57 51 = Max 41 45 49 43 44 65 63 58 Min 35 32 41 35 29 52 48 48 Range 6 13 8 8 15 1= 3 15 10 StD-P 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.4 4.0 4.5 5.2 3.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click H= ere to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7= : Monday, December 3, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility = Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 46 +5 ERCOT(SP) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 75 +5 MAAC(= NE) 50 +5 MAIN(CTR) 44 +3 MAPP(HP) 40 +4 NPCC(NE) 42 +3 SERC(SE) 61 +3 SPP(= SP) 57 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -2 WSCC(RK) 42 -3 WSCC(SW) 56 -3 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 40 42 36 35 = 58 60 49 Max 42 45 47 42 43 64 66 57 Min 39 35 37 33 30 51 56 45 Range 3 10= 10 9 13 13 10 12 StD-P 1.1 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8= 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Day 8: Tuesday, December 4, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 +3 ERCOT(SP) 65 +4 FRCC(SE)= 67 +3 MAAC(NE) 43 +3 MAIN(CTR) 44 +4 MAPP(HP) 38 +2 NPCC(NE) 39 +6 SERC(SE= ) 54 NC SPP(SP) 51 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 -3 WSCC(RK) 28 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -6 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 = 37 41 36 31 60 64 48 Max 48 42 46 42 42 64 69 56 Min 41 34 38 32 26 56 57 4= 5 Range 7 8 8 10 16 8 12 11 StD-P 1.6 2.6 2.1 3.1 4.8 2.7 3.0 3.9 Count 8 8= 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat= ility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, December 5, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: De= lta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 +6 ERCOT(SP) 67 += 6 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +7 MAPP(HP) 38 +7 NPCC(NE) 43 = +6 SERC(SE) 55 +4 SPP(SP) 56 +7 WSCC(NW) 34 -3 WSCC(RK) 32 -1 WSCC(SW) 47 += 1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 41 36 44 35 29 62 63 48 Max 47 41 47 41 39 66 67 56 Min 37 30 41 32 = 21 57 55 45 Range 10 11 6 9 18 9 12 11 StD-P 3.5 4.1 1.8 1.9 4.6 3.7 2.8 2.= 1 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi= n the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thursday, December 6, 2001 Syncrasy's= Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 +15 = ERCOT(SP) 66 +4 FRCC(SE) 68 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 +9 MAIN(CTR) 50 +19 MAPP(HP) 45 = +14 NPCC(NE) 33 +10 SERC(SE) 55 +3 SPP(SP) 59 +7 WSCC(NW) 32 -5 WSCC(RK) 27= NC WSCC(SW) 44 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 31 41 33 22 59 55 41 Max 47 41 50 36 28 63 64 45= Min 31 20 34 30 14 57 46 38 Range 16 21 16 6 14 6 18 7 StD-P 5.3 7.9 6.2 1= .3 5.2 1.9 6.3 2.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed arou= nd and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall= ? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apb= energy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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