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Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 Deve= lopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue Sui= te 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version of= Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you would l= ike to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncrasy= at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscribe_T= raderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this daily em= ail list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com - I= f you would like to be removed from this daily email please reply to = this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary= @syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 07:39AM ET = Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 09:45AM ET Meteorol= ogist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations Andy W= eingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Sea= sonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aqu= ila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' = Today: Wednesday, December 19, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volat= ility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image = to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC= (NE) 50 +1 MAIN(CTR) 38 +2 MAPP(HP) 33 +1 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP= (SP) 49 +1 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 NC WSCC(SW) 57 -1 Range Standard = Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 32 40 37 32= 59 51 53 Max 41 40 45 41 41 63 59 58 Min 33 28 37 34 26 55 45 49 Range 8 1= 2 8 7 15 8 14 9 StD-P 2.2 3.9 2.6 1.5 4.2 2.3 3.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 = 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility = Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: The strong ridge/trough configuration of re= cent weeks relaxes temporarily. It will reload again this weekend on the wa= y to a transition to winter. The weather system in the Midwest this morni= ng is weak when compared to recent standards. There is however, a decent co= ol air push behind it though most of the precipitation with this is still l= iquid in nature. The gradual trend down in temperatures continues as the pa= ttern slowly changes. We have seen near record warming out ahead of these s= ystems early in December, now the warming is not quite so robust. There won= 't be many changes yet to 5 day temperature departures as they remain above= normal. Those changes may start to show up by Friday. The next system to h= it the West coast tonight and Thursday looks more robust. Models continue t= o show the evolution of thi! s storm as the window to the soul of the long = awaited pattern change. It will be a sizeable wet weather maker this weeken= d and into Christmas. There should be ample cold in the Northern U.S. for s= now, but most still see rain. It is a little early as to the potential of t= his storm with regard to the East Coast for Christmas. It is my feeling at = this early stage that the I95 corridor is mainly a rain event with snow for= the Lakes and Interior NE. Tomorrow: Thursday, December 20, 2001 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCO= T(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 35 NC NP= CC(NE) 38 +1 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 42 +4 WSC= C(SW) 54 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW = RK SE SP SW Mean 33 35 39 37 36 53 54 50 Max 39 42 45 41 45 62 64 57 Min 28= 30 35 33 31 46 46 44 Range 11 12 10 8 14 16 18 13 StD-P 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.1 4.= 1 4.6 4.8 4.0 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather F= orecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Friday, December 21, 200= 1 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) = 40 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP= ) 37 +7 NPCC(NE) 33 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +1 WSCC(RK)= 32 -3 WSCC(SW) 50 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT= HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 37 33 34 32 52 59 47 Max 40 39 40 39 45 58 62= 54 Min 30 33 28 30 24 46 56 42 Range 10 6 12 9 21 12 6 12 StD-P 2.3 2.0 2.= 9 2.4 5.5 3.7 2.1 3.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each W= eather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Saturday, Decemb= er 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +1 MAAC(NE) 44 NC MAIN(CTR) 40 = +8 MAPP(HP) 27 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 45 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 += 2 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 52 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 30 32 36 23 57 58 47 Max 41 37 39 3= 9 36 61 63 52 Min 38 26 27 34 15 54 55 43 Range 3 11 12 5 21 7 8 9 StD-P 1.= 0 3.3 2.9 1.1 5.9 1.6 1.7 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto Se= e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Sunday, = December 23, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMA= GE] ECAR(CTR) 43 +8 ERCOT(SP) 54 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CT= R) 32 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +7 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW= ) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 29 -5 WSCC(SW) 54 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] = [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 23 38 39 22 58 48 49 Max 37 2= 9 42 41 29 61 60 54 Min 31 18 35 36 15 55 37 44 Range 6 11 7 5 14 6 23 10 S= tD-P 1.7 2.9 1.7 1.4 4.3 1.8 6.3 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click He= reto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-1= 0 Discussion: Model consensus remains fairly strong with the evolution of = the 6-10 day period. We should at long last start seeing negative departure= s East of the Rockies though I wouldn't call the numbers significant. It is= significant only when comparing to the last two months. Late in the period= , all of the models forecast a sizeable Western U.S. ridge and Eastern trou= gh. This brings the flow out of Canada and into the Plains. Now, attention = turns to source region of the air mass. It is clearly Canadian, but equally= clear to me it is not pure arctic. Thats why I dont think we are yet headi= ng way below normal. The coldest polar air is on the other side of the hemi= sphere. It can come around if this pattern were to lock in for a while, but= that is after the first of the year. There is potential for serious cold e= arly to mid January, but rig! ht now its all potential. Until then, the gra= dual step-down seems in order. Day 6: Monday, December 24, 2001 Click H= erefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on= image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 +3 ERCOT(SP) 51 -4 FRCC(SE) 70 = -1 MAAC(NE) 48 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 -1 MAPP(HP) 23 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +10 SERC(SE) = 50 -1 SPP(SP) 38 -7 WSCC(NW) 43 +3 WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 Range = Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 25= 40 41 24 52 43 50 Max 30 31 42 43 34 59 53 55 Min 24 19 37 38 17 46 33 45 = Range 6 12 5 5 17 13 20 10 StD-P 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.6 5.4 4.6 5.9 3.2 Count 9 9 = 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatili= ty Matrix Day 7: Tuesday, December 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta T= emp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 -6 FRCC(SE) = 65 -1 MAAC(NE) 41 +2 MAIN(CTR) 32 -3 MAPP(HP) 27 -5 NPCC(NE) 39 +8 SERC(SE)= 47 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 Range= Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 2= 7 36 40 28 45 41 51 Max 30 35 42 43 37 53 51 57 Min 20 20 32 36 22 40 34 46= Range 10 15 10 7 15 13 17 11 StD-P 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.3 4.2 4.5 6.1 3.6 Count 9= 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat= ility Matrix Day 8: Wednesday, December 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: De= lta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (= Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 28 +2 ERCOT(SP) 37 -9 FRCC= (SE) 55 NC MAAC(NE) 32 +4 MAIN(CTR) 23 -2 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 36 +18 SE= RC(SE) 36 -4 SPP(SP) 32 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 +3 WSCC(SW) 50 NC = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea= n 26 31 33 39 29 44 44 52 Max 31 36 38 42 37 51 54 57 Min 21 26 29 36 23 38= 36 48 Range 10 10 9 6 14 13 18 9 StD-P 2.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 5.2 4.2 5.9 3.3 Cou= nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V= olatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, December 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 24 +3 ERCOT(SP) 44 +2 F= RCC(SE) 53 -4 MAAC(NE) 31 +3 MAIN(CTR) 22 +6 MAPP(HP) 21 +12 NPCC(NE) 33 +1= 2 SERC(SE) 37 +1 SPP(SP) 35 +11 WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -= 1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S= W Mean 26 29 31 38 26 44 46 51 Max 31 37 36 43 37 50 54 57 Min 21 26 25 34 = 18 39 42 48 Range 10 11 11 9 19 11 12 9 StD-P 3.3 3.4 2.3 3.5 5.8 3.9 4.3 3= .3 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within= the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, December 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][= IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 18 +3 ERCOT(SP) 43= +9 FRCC(SE) 57 NC MAAC(NE) 24 +4 MAIN(CTR) 17 +5 MAPP(HP) 18 +15 NPCC(NE) = 25 +9 SERC(SE) 37 +8 SPP(SP) 31 +12 WSCC(NW) 35 -3 WSCC(RK) 21 -8 WSCC(SW) = 47 -7 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 19 23 25 32 17 40 38 41 Max 22 27 29 35 20 41 40 49 Min 16 20 23= 23 13 36 35 34 Range 6 7 6 12 7 5 5 15 StD-P 2.2 2.4 2.3 4.4 2.2 1.2 2.3 6= .0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within= the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted f= or the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary= can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor www.apbenergy.comor www.true= quote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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