Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Dec 26, 2001

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st updated: Wednesday, Dec 26, 2001 at 08:22AM EST [IMAGE]Congratulation=
s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA=
/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A=
MS or Aquila [IMAGE]New! << Printable [IMAGE]PDFTrader Summary (You must =
have Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a defini=
tion of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Wednesday, December =
26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click o=
n image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 24 NC ERCOT(SP) 56 NC FRCC(SE) 61 -2 MAAC=
(NE) 35 NC MAIN(CTR) 20 +2 MAPP(HP) 22 +3 NPCC(NE) 32 +2 SERC(SE) 45 +1 SPP=
(SP) 41 +2 WSCC(NW) 38 -2 WSCC(RK) 35 NC WSCC(SW) 57 NC Range Standard =
Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 20 28 31 35 27 45 45 51 Max =
24 34 34 38 36 49 54 57 Min 17 23 28 32 19 40 36 47 Range 7 11 6 6 17 9 18 =
10 StD-P 1.2 3.2 1.7 1.6 4.9 2.3 5.2 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Clic=
k Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Tom=
orrow: Thursday, December 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volat=
ility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 25 +3 ERCOT(SP)=
61 +2 FRCC(SE) 61 NC MAAC(NE) 32 +1 MAIN(CTR) 27 +3 MAPP(HP) 24 +4 NPCC(NE=
) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 46 +2 SPP(SP) 44 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(RK) 34 +2 WSCC(SW)=
58 +1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24=
29 28 38 29 46 52 53 Max 28 34 33 41 37 52 61 57 Min 20 25 23 36 22 42 45 =
49 Range 8 9 10 5 15 10 16 8 StD-P 1.9 3.2 2.2 1.1 4.6 2.7 3.8 2.9 Count 14=
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within t=
he Volatility Matrix Day 3: Friday, December 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choic=
e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECA=
R(CTR) 29 +3 ERCOT(SP) 63 +3 FRCC(SE) 70 +3 MAAC(NE) 37 +4 MAIN(CTR) 26 +1 =
MAPP(HP) 14 -1 NPCC(NE) 30 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +3 SPP(SP) 44 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 +2 W=
SCC(RK) 31 +2 WSCC(SW) 57 NC Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE =
NW RK SE SP SW Mean 22 24 28 41 32 51 54 54 Max 24 35 31 44 36 54 59 58 Min=
16 19 23 38 27 49 44 49 Range 8 16 8 6 9 5 15 9 StD-P 1.8 3.7 2.0 1.3 3.2 =
1.4 4.3 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo=
recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Saturday, December 29, 20=
01 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on imag=
e to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 25 NC ERCOT(SP) 59 +3 FRCC(SE) 71 +4 MAAC(NE) 3=
6 +3 MAIN(CTR) 19 NC MAPP(HP) 9 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +1 SERC(SE) 48 +2 SPP(SP) 35=
+2 WSCC(NW) 42 +2 WSCC(RK) 28 +2 WSCC(SW) 57 NC Range Standard Deviati=
on Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 18 18 27 41 31 51 52 53 Max 22 24 3=
1 45 36 54 61 58 Min 14 10 21 37 25 46 44 49 Range 8 14 10 8 11 8 17 9 StD-=
P 2.9 4.5 2.1 2.0 3.2 2.5 5.0 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here =
to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Su=
nday, December 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri=
x (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 22 -2 ERCOT(SP) 58 +8 FRCC=
(SE) 67 +1 MAAC(NE) 31 -1 MAIN(CTR) 19 NC MAPP(HP) 9 -3 NPCC(NE) 28 +1 SERC=
(SE) 44 +2 SPP(SP) 34 +3 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 27 -1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 R=
ange Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 16 16 25 39 29=
47 50 53 Max 21 21 28 42 34 53 57 57 Min 11 10 18 35 23 40 44 49 Range 10 =
11 10 7 11 13 13 8 StD-P 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.8 4.3 3.9 2.2 Count 10 10 10 10 =
10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatil=
ity Matrix Day 6: Monday, December 31, 2001 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-=
10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix=
(Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 24 -2 ERCOT(SP) 50 +5 FRCC(=
SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 30 -3 MAIN(CTR) 20 -3 MAPP(HP) 12 -8 NPCC(NE) 26 -1 SERC=
(SE) 42 -1 SPP(SP) 31 -4 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 56 NC R=
ange Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 16 16 25 40 26=
47 45 53 Max 20 21 30 44 33 56 53 58 Min 10 8 16 36 15 40 38 48 Range 10 1=
3 14 8 18 16 15 10 StD-P 2.6 4.3 3.5 2.0 6.3 4.6 5.1 2.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 =
9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr=
ix Day 7: Tuesday, January 1, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V=
olatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 27 -2 ERCOT=
(SP) 50 -2 FRCC(SE) 67 NC MAAC(NE) 35 NC MAIN(CTR) 23 -3 MAPP(HP) 16 -9 NPC=
C(NE) 27 NC SERC(SE) 43 -1 SPP(SP) 34 -5 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 -4 WSCC=
(SW) 57 +1 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 17 18 24 41 29 42 41 53 Max 21 25 29 47 38 47 51 56 Min 12 11 17 38 20 35=
29 49 Range 9 14 12 9 18 12 22 7 StD-P 2.6 4.6 3.4 1.9 4.7 4.6 7.4 2.6 Cou=
nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the =
Volatility Matrix Day 8: Wednesday, January 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice:=
Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to enlarge) ECAR(=
CTR) 15 -4 ERCOT(SP) 36 +1 FRCC(SE) 62 +3 MAAC(NE) 24 NC MAIN(CTR) 13 -8 MA=
PP(HP) 6 -19 NPCC(NE) 17 -2 SERC(SE) 32 +1 SPP(SP) 20 -12 WSCC(NW) 42 -3 WS=
CC(RK) 24 -4 WSCC(SW) 49 -2 Range Standard Deviation Reg CT HP NE N=
W RK SE SP SW Mean 17 21 23 42 29 43 43 53 Max 22 26 30 44 35 49 59 56 Min =
12 14 17 37 22 37 32 48 Range 10 12 13 7 13 12 27 8 StD-P 3.4 4.8 4.0 1.0 4=
.7 4.1 7.2 3.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, January 3, 2002 =
Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Click on image to =
enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 17 -6 ERCOT(SP) 35 -8 FRCC(SE) 59 +4 MAAC(NE) 26 NC =
MAIN(CTR) 11 -9 MAPP(HP) 16 -5 NPCC(NE) 16 -6 SERC(SE) 32 -5 SPP(SP) 22 -14=
WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 33 +6 WSCC(SW) 53 +2 Range Standard Deviation =
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 26 23 41 32 42 44 53 Max 24 29 29 4=
4 36 49 56 56 Min 13 20 18 37 23 37 32 49 Range 11 9 11 7 13 12 24 7 StD-P =
3.8 2.8 4.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 8.3 1.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Eac=
h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, Janu=
ary 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix (Cli=
ck on image to enlarge) ECAR(CTR) 17 -2 ERCOT(SP) 48 +3 FRCC(SE) 53 -6 =
MAAC(NE) 24 -1 MAIN(CTR) 21 -4 MAPP(HP) 32 -3 NPCC(NE) 19 +2 SERC(SE) 31 -7=
SPP(SP) 41 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 +3 WSCC(RK) 27 -2 WSCC(SW) 54 +3 Range Stand=
ard Deviation Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 19 27 21 38 27 37 44 47 =
Max 23 35 24 41 30 40 51 54 Min 12 18 19 36 23 35 39 40 Range 11 17 5 5 7 5=
12 14 StD-P 2.7 5.4 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 4.1 5.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click He=
re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trade=
r Summary is designed around and formatted for the Plasma displays, Rainbo=
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