Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Jan 09, 2002

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ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Jan 09, 2002 at =
07:42AM EST Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Jan 09, 2002 at 09:34AM =
EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratu=
lations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 =
AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please vi=
sit: AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have=
Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definitio=
n of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Wednesday, January 9,=
2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAG=
E] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] =
ECAR(CTR) 48 +2 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 62 NC MAAC(NE) 43 +1 MAIN(CTR) 52=
+2 MAPP(HP) 47 +2 NPCC(NE) 37 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP(SP) 67 +4 WSCC(NW) 45 =
+1 WSCC(RK) 44 +2 WSCC(SW) 61 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAG=
E] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 44 44 37 41 37 56 66 57 Max 50 51 40 =
45 45 62 74 62 Min 40 40 33 37 33 53 60 53 Range 10 11 7 8 12 9 14 9 StD-P =
3.1 3.5 1.7 2.8 3.6 2.9 4.2 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here t=
o See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Di=
scussion: Bismarck, North Dakota was warmer yesterday than Miami, Florida=
! Overall weather pattern still finds bitter cold arctic air lurking... in =
the NW territories. Bismarck was 38 degrees above normal yesterday at 63 w=
hile Miami was about 12 degrees below normal at 61. Its all a product of th=
e jet stream pattern which has taken modified Canadian air deep into the So=
uth while allowing a downslope wind off the Rockies to really warm up the P=
lains. This warm air is heading East and will attack the Ohio Valley and Ea=
st Coast snow cover with a vengeance the next couple of days. I do see a re=
versal of temperatures gradually occurring in the South the rest of the wee=
k as the deep trough weakens. The current quiet pattern will become a littl=
e more active in the storm department later in the week. There is a benign =
loo! king system on the West Coast today which may redevelop over the Lower=
Mississippi Valley this weekend. While I would not give this a "major stor=
m" designation, it could provide the East some snow late in the period. In =
addition, another moderate cold front in the Northern branch will end the u=
nseasonable warmth in the Plains this weekend, but I would hardly call it c=
old. The five day numbers will still grade out well above normal. The stagn=
ant pattern in the West looks to continue as high pressure remains anchored=
over the Great Basin. Storms coming in off the Pacific have a small punch =
as they hit the coast, but rapidly weaken once inland. Overall, temperature=
s there look to remain a bit above normal. Tomorrow: Thursday, January 1=
0, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IM=
AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE]=
ECAR(CTR) 47 +2 ERCOT(SP) 67 +2 FRCC(SE) 70 +1 MAAC(NE) 53 +4 MAIN(CTR) =
40 +1 MAPP(HP) 36 +1 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 63 +3 SPP(SP) 46 -1 WSCC(NW) 4=
0 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -3 WSCC(SW) 59 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM=
AGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 38 41 40 30 60 61 56 Max 50 51 4=
7 45 45 66 72 61 Min 37 33 37 35 19 57 55 51 Range 13 18 10 10 26 9 17 10 S=
tD-P 2.9 4.5 2.0 2.5 6.1 2.4 4.0 3.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click He=
re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3:=
Friday, January 11, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Ma=
trix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to =
enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 57 -3 FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE=
) 43 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +2 MAPP(HP) 35 +3 NPCC(NE) 39 +3 SERC(SE) 54 +3 SPP(SP=
) 47 -1 WSCC(NW) 42 -3 WSCC(RK) 38 -3 WSCC(SW) 60 -2 Range Standard Dev=
iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 37 38 41 32 57=
51 57 Max 41 41 46 44 38 64 63 60 Min 32 32 33 38 24 51 42 51 Range 9 9 13=
6 14 13 21 9 StD-P 2.5 2.8 3.0 1.7 4.2 3.2 4.9 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12=
12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility =
Matrix Day 4: Saturday, January 12, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem=
p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (=
Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 +1 FRCC=
(SE) 68 +7 MAAC(NE) 42 +2 MAIN(CTR) 34 -2 MAPP(HP) 33 -5 NPCC(NE) 31 -1 SER=
C(SE) 51 +2 SPP(SP) 48 -3 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 39 -4 WSCC(SW) 60 -1 =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean=
33 36 31 41 35 50 51 57 Max 36 41 40 44 40 60 58 61 Min 31 31 26 37 30 45 =
41 52 Range 5 10 14 7 10 15 17 9 StD-P 1.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.0 2.6 Coun=
t 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wit=
hin the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Sunday, January 13, 2002 Syncrasy's C=
hoice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
[IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -4 ERC=
OT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 65 +3 MAAC(NE) 41 -1 MAIN(CTR) 36 -3 MAPP(HP) 33 -2 N=
PCC(NE) 34 NC SERC(SE) 52 NC SPP(SP) 48 -5 WSCC(NW) 39 +2 WSCC(RK) 35 -1 WS=
CC(SW) 58 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW=
RK SE SP SW Mean 33 37 33 37 32 49 54 55 Max 37 41 36 43 41 55 59 60 Min 3=
0 32 29 31 21 44 48 50 Range 7 9 7 12 20 11 11 10 StD-P 1.5 2.8 1.8 3.2 7.3=
3.4 3.2 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather =
Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: My mid =
range forecast continues to disagree with many who are calling for much col=
der air to invade the Northern U.S. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day products seem=
to be leading this charge with strong probabilities of below normal temper=
atures over much of the country especially in the 8-14 day time frame. I th=
ink a mistake is being made in equating a large area of below normal probab=
ilities with very cold air. Keep in mind that in a probability forecast one=
degree below normal grades out the same as 30 degrees below normal. There =
are two distinct branches of the jet stream right now, but clearly the Paci=
fic branch is more dominant in the U.S. than the arctic branch. Repeated ef=
forts at reversing that have not yet materialized and I won't forecast that=
occurrence without more evidence. I am not arguing against cooler tha! n c=
urrent weather or even the return to below normal temperatures in the North=
next week. I just don't see the whole motherlode of arctic air coming down=
. This outlook will bust big time if I am wrong though if one looks at the =
extreme cold being predicted on the end panels (days 14-16) of the MRF in N=
W Canada. Those readings are as cold as anything I have ever seen. But, the=
y are at the end of the long range and in NW Canada. I think it has been pr=
oven several times already this winter it is very premature to bring that a=
ir down though if you hammer at it often enough it may eventually happen. =
Day 6: Monday, January 14, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary=
information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I=
MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -3 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 68 -2 MAAC(NE) 40 -5 MAIN(=
CTR) 35 -1 MAPP(HP) 29 +2 NPCC(NE) 31 -5 SERC(SE) 52 -5 SPP(SP) 47 -3 WSCC(=
NW) 38 +2 WSCC(RK) 33 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE=
] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 31 32 35 30 52 55 53 Max 38=
36 38 40 36 55 60 58 Min 32 26 25 30 18 47 47 47 Range 6 10 13 10 18 8 13 =
11 StD-P 1.4 3.7 3.3 3.1 6.3 2.3 4.9 3.5 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here =
to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Tue=
sday, January 15, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri=
x [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enl=
arge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 4=
1 -2 MAIN(CTR) 33 NC MAPP(HP) 25 +4 NPCC(NE) 32 -1 SERC(SE) 56 -1 SPP(SP) 4=
7 -3 WSCC(NW) 39 +3 WSCC(RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 +3 Range Standard Deviat=
ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 28 34 34 29 54 58=
51 Max 37 31 38 39 35 59 63 56 Min 27 22 31 26 19 50 51 46 Range 10 9 7 13=
16 9 12 10 StD-P 1.6 2.6 1.9 3.2 6.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Cli=
ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix =
Day 8: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vola=
tility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on =
image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 36 -7 ERCOT(SP) 65 -3 FRCC(SE) 64 N=
C MAAC(NE) 37 -2 MAIN(CTR) 31 -9 MAPP(HP) 27 +5 NPCC(NE) 34 +5 SERC(SE) 53 =
-1 SPP(SP) 42 -14 WSCC(NW) 34 +13 WSCC(RK) 20 +8 WSCC(SW) 46 +6 Range S=
tandard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 30 =
34 34 28 55 60 50 Max 34 34 39 40 34 58 66 56 Min 25 22 29 28 17 49 54 45 R=
ange 9 12 10 12 17 9 12 11 StD-P 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.5 6.5 2.1 2.4 3.9 Count 9 9 =
9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volati=
lity Matrix Day 9: Thursday, January 17, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta=
Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE=
] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 -6 ERCOT(SP) 50 -13=
FRCC(SE) 68 +2 MAAC(NE) 41 -6 MAIN(CTR) 32 +8 MAPP(HP) 33 +19 NPCC(NE) 34 =
-7 SERC(SE) 54 -6 SPP(SP) 36 +1 WSCC(NW) 38 +13 WSCC(RK) 26 +13 WSCC(SW) 50=
+11 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE S=
P SW Mean 33 30 33 34 27 57 57 50 Max 42 33 36 38 32 60 67 55 Min 26 25 26 =
30 18 52 47 45 Range 16 8 10 8 14 8 20 10 StD-P 4.1 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.7 2.0 6.0=
3.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi=
thin the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, January 18, 2002 Syncrasy's=
Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
[IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 +8 E=
RCOT(SP) 57 +10 FRCC(SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 32 NC MAIN(CTR) 35 +12 MAPP(HP) 35 =
+18 NPCC(NE) 31 +5 SERC(SE) 44 -3 SPP(SP) 44 +7 WSCC(NW) 38 +11 WSCC(RK) 29=
+11 WSCC(SW) 54 +9 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT H=
P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 34 31 22 52 54 43 Max 34 36 43 38 28 56 58 5=
4 Min 25 15 27 22 15 48 48 32 Range 9 21 16 16 13 8 10 22 StD-P 3.3 6.7 5.6=
5.2 4.4 2.8 3.0 8.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather =
Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed ar=
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