Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Jan 16, 2002

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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, =
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ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Jan 16, 2002 at =
07:34AM EST Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the =
$50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For mor=
e information please visit: AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader =
Summary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Cli=
ck here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today:=
Wednesday, January 16, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility=
Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image =
to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 +2 ERCOT(SP) 69 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 MAAC=
(NE) 41 NC MAIN(CTR) 36 +3 MAPP(HP) 25 +4 NPCC(NE) 33 +1 SERC(SE) 56 NC SPP=
(SP) 50 +1 WSCC(NW) 37 +4 WSCC(RK) 27 +4 WSCC(SW) 54 +2 Range Standard =
Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 27 32 33 21=
54 61 49 Max 36 31 36 37 28 60 65 55 Min 29 22 28 29 15 50 56 46 Range 7 9=
8 8 13 10 9 9 StD-P 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 4.1 3.2 2.5 2.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 1=
2 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility=
Matrix Andy Weingarten is out of the office; Due to his absence there =
will be no commentary today. Tomorrow: Thursday, January 17, 2002 S=
yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR=
) 35 NC ERCOT(SP) 68 +6 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 43 -1 MAIN(CTR) 27 +1 MAPP(=
HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 34 +1 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 43 +4 WSCC(NW) 35 -2 WSCC(R=
K) 24 NC WSCC(SW) 53 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg =
CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 24 35 32 22 58 59 49 Max 32 29 38 36 28 61 =
63 54 Min 24 20 31 27 14 55 55 45 Range 8 9 7 9 14 6 8 9 StD-P 2.1 2.2 1.4 =
2.6 4.1 2.2 2.4 2.9 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each W=
eather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Friday, January =
18, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I=
MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE=
] ECAR(CTR) 31 NC ERCOT(SP) 61 -2 FRCC(SE) 77 -1 MAAC(NE) 38 +1 MAIN(CTR)=
23 -3 MAPP(HP) 12 -3 NPCC(NE) 32 +2 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 37 -2 WSCC(NW) =
33 -2 WSCC(RK) 22 -1 WSCC(SW) 51 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [I=
MAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 20 30 30 22 56 56 48 Max 28 25 =
37 34 27 61 61 53 Min 14 14 25 25 15 53 53 43 Range 14 11 12 9 12 8 8 10 St=
D-P 3.2 3.9 3.3 3.3 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Her=
e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4:=
Saturday, January 19, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility =
Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t=
o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 29 -4 ERCOT(SP) 62 +4 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(=
NE) 36 -1 MAIN(CTR) 25 -5 MAPP(HP) 20 -5 NPCC(NE) 27 -1 SERC(SE) 52 -4 SPP(=
SP) 36 -6 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 26 -3 WSCC(SW) 51 -2 Range Standard D=
eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 24 27 32 21 =
57 57 46 Max 31 29 33 36 26 59 63 52 Min 19 19 20 28 12 56 54 41 Range 12 1=
0 13 8 14 3 9 11 StD-P 3.6 3.0 3.0 1.6 5.0 1.0 2.9 3.3 Count 10 10 10 10 10=
10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatili=
ty Matrix Day 5: Sunday, January 20, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem=
p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (=
Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 -4 ERCOT(SP) 59 -1 FRCC=
(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 37 -1 MAIN(CTR) 30 -5 MAPP(HP) 25 -5 NPCC(NE) 29 -3 SER=
C(SE) 53 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 31 -2 WSCC(SW) 54 NC =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean=
27 29 28 35 24 58 54 48 Max 32 34 34 40 31 61 60 54 Min 23 25 21 32 17 54 =
46 44 Range 9 9 13 8 14 7 14 10 StD-P 2.7 2.3 4.3 1.5 5.2 1.7 4.4 2.3 Count=
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used With=
in the Volatility Matrix Day 6: Monday, January 21, 2002 Click Here fo=
r Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V=
olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click =
on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 -6 ERCOT(SP) 60 -3 FRCC(SE) 7=
5 -2 MAAC(NE) 41 -4 MAIN(CTR) 33 -3 MAPP(HP) 28 -3 NPCC(NE) 30 -6 SERC(SE) =
55 -4 SPP(SP) 46 -4 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 35 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1 Range =
Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 32=
30 36 29 55 53 49 Max 33 36 33 41 35 59 59 56 Min 27 29 25 33 24 52 42 43 =
Range 6 7 8 8 11 7 17 13 StD-P 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.2 3.1 2.5 5.3 3.3 Count 9 9 9 =
9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatili=
ty Matrix Day 7: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Te=
mp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
(Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 -4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -3 FRC=
C(SE) 72 -4 MAAC(NE) 41 -3 MAIN(CTR) 36 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 +2 NPCC(NE) 31 -3 SE=
RC(SE) 55 -6 SPP(SP) 51 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 35 +3 WSCC(SW) 56 NC =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 33 34 30 34 30 55 59 48 Max 38 37 34 41 37 60 67 56 Min 30 30 24 30 25 47=
53 41 Range 8 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 StD-P 2.5 2.0 2.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.6 Co=
unt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within th=
e Volatility Matrix Day 8: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 Syncrasy's Choi=
ce: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM=
AGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 37 -10 ERCOT=
(SP) 63 +5 FRCC(SE) 68 -4 MAAC(NE) 36 -19 MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 31 +10 N=
PCC(NE) 32 -9 SERC(SE) 53 -12 SPP(SP) 46 +3 WSCC(NW) 32 +2 WSCC(RK) 15 +2 W=
SCC(SW) 41 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE N=
W RK SE SP SW Mean 36 30 35 35 24 59 60 47 Max 44 35 44 40 36 64 65 56 Min =
30 27 28 28 14 56 59 40 Range 14 8 16 12 22 8 6 16 StD-P 3.4 1.9 3.0 3.2 7.=
4 2.5 1.4 6.0 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, January 24, 2002 S=
yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR=
) 44 +21 ERCOT(SP) 48 +7 FRCC(SE) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 52 +1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +20 MAP=
P(HP) 22 +4 NPCC(NE) 42 -2 SERC(SE) 60 +10 SPP(SP) 35 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -2 WSC=
C(RK) 18 -10 WSCC(SW) 46 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] =
Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 26 40 35 22 61 52 47 Max 34 31 47 39 33=
66 60 55 Min 27 21 33 29 15 56 45 42 Range 7 10 14 10 18 10 15 13 StD-P 1.=
7 2.8 5.2 2.7 5.5 1.7 4.8 3.9 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each=
Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, Janu=
ary 25, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I=
MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 26 +1 ERCOT(SP) 45 -3 FRCC(SE) 69 +16 MAAC(NE) 43 +20 MAI=
N(CTR) 15 -18 MAPP(HP) 2 -34 NPCC(NE) 42 +26 SERC(SE) 45 +3 SPP(SP) 33 -10 =
WSCC(NW) 36 +1 WSCC(RK) 21 -12 WSCC(SW) 49 -4 Range Standard Deviation =
[IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 18 20 36 33 15 52 39 39 =
Max 22 22 42 36 20 58 44 49 Min 13 17 28 30 6 49 34 29 Range 9 5 14 6 14 9 =
10 20 StD-P 3.3 1.7 4.2 2.4 4.8 3.3 3.5 7.9 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Her=
e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader=
Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, =
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