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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at = 07:45AM EST Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Nov 21, 2001 at 09:21AM = EST Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratu= lations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 = AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please vi= sit: AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximu= m Temperature' Today: Wednesday, November 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice:= Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE= ][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 48 +1 ERCOT(SP)= 64 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 54 +3 MAPP(HP) 56 +4 NPCC(NE= ) 41 +1 SERC(SE) 60 +2 SPP(SP) 61 +2 WSCC(NW) 51 +2 WSCC(RK) 52 +3 WSCC(SW)= 64 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE= SP SW Mean 45 48 40 46 43 57 57 60 Max 54 57 47 51 52 64 66 66 Min 39 41 3= 4 42 36 49 51 56 Range 15 16 13 9 16 15 15 10 StD-P 5.5 5.4 3.7 2.7 4.8 4.1= 4.5 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Fore= cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Battle deve= lops between tropical ridge in the Atlantic and Arctic air flooding Canada.= The Atlantic ridge will prevail? for now. A series of weather systems wil= l move into the West Coast and head East through the Thanksgiving holiday w= eekend. While the pattern will be more active than recent weeks, no one big= storm is likely to bring travel problems on a large scale. In addition, th= ere is little additional cold air available to spin up a Winter Storm, so m= ost precip will be in the form of light to moderate rain. Exceptions to thi= s will be the mountains of the West where ski resort snows will fall. Also,= the far Northern reaches of the U.S. could see some light snows. Temperatu= re departures are expected to go largely above normal again with the highes= t numbers in the North, though not to the de! gree of earlier in the month.= Negative numbers though not significant are confined to the West where sto= rms come in off the ocean and in the Southeast where this time of year is n= ot cold anyway. Tomorrow: Thursday, November 22, 2001 Syncrasy's Choic= e: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 51 NC ERCOT(S= P) 71 +1 FRCC(SE) 77 NC MAAC(NE) 51 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 47 +1 NPCC(= NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 64 +1 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC(NW) 47 NC WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(S= W) 62 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK = SE SP SW Mean 46 44 44 43 39 62 64 58 Max 56 54 54 50 50 69 72 64 Min 42 39= 36 40 32 58 58 55 Range 14 15 18 10 18 11 14 9 StD-P 3.2 3.8 3.9 2.4 3.8 3= .1 3.0 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Friday, November 23, 2001= Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR= (CTR) 55 +4 ERCOT(SP) 74 +4 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 54 +2 MAIN(CTR) 52 +5 M= APP(HP) 46 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +1 SERC(SE) 68 +5 SPP(SP) 59 +2 WSCC(NW) 44 -1 WS= CC(RK) 40 -3 WSCC(SW) 59 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 41 44 40 31 66 66 54 Max 51 46 50 45 40= 69 72 59 Min 46 38 40 37 25 63 60 49 Range 5 8 10 8 15 6 12 10 StD-P 1.2 2= .3 2.6 1.9 3.3 1.7 3.3 2.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Saturday,= November 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge= ) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 58 +7 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 80 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +3= MAIN(CTR) 51 +2 MAPP(HP) 42 NC NPCC(NE) 50 +5 SERC(SE) 69 +2 SPP(SP) 58 +1= WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 38 -1 WSCC(SW) 55 -1 Range Standard Deviation = [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 49 37 53 37 31 68 61 51 = Max 51 42 55 42 39 71 69 55 Min 48 33 51 35 26 66 54 48 Range 3 9 4 7 13 5 = 15 7 StD-P 0.9 2.4 1.2 1.5 3.3 1.5 4.6 2.1 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here= to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: S= unday, November 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Mat= rix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to e= nlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 74 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 -1 MAAC(NE)= 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 49 -1 MAPP(HP) 40 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +3 SERC(SE) 70 +2 SPP(SP)= 60 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Devi= ation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 37 53 35 32 66 = 66 49 Max 47 41 55 40 39 72 72 56 Min 41 34 52 31 27 64 61 45 Range 6 7 3 9= 12 8 11 11 StD-P 1.8 2.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 2.6 3.0 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Cli= ck Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 6-10 Discussion: Models are going wild with a winter storm early in th= e 6-10 day period. I suspect surface pressures are a little overdone given = the upper level flow. However, the Gulf will be open and some significant m= oisture and wind are possible. The storm track will be well North which con= fines snow to the Northern U.S. Significant winter weather though from Wyom= ing to Minnesota is possible. The large scale pattern ending November will = be for a trough to sit in the Interior West while a strong ridge exists ove= r the Southeast. There is still plenty of arctic air available in Canada, = but with the jet stream in a broad West to SW flow, no means of delivery ap= pear available until at least December 1'st. In a general sense, I look for= temperatures to be below normal in the West with above normal in the South= and East. The North! is somewhat a question mark being closer to the arcti= c air and could go either way. I'll lean to normal for now. Day 6: Monday,= November 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge= ) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +2 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 FRCC(SE) 79 NC MAAC(NE) 55 +1= MAIN(CTR) 49 +2 MAPP(HP) 37 NC NPCC(NE) 49 NC SERC(SE) 68 NC SPP(SP) 58 +3= WSCC(NW) 39 -3 WSCC(RK) 31 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -3 Range Standard Deviation = [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 35 45 34 24 65 66 45 = Max 48 42 51 39 33 70 72 53 Min 43 32 42 30 17 62 62 40 Range 5 10 9 9 16 8= 10 13 StD-P 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 4.5 1.8 2.6 3.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click He= re to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7:= Tuesday, November 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility = Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +3 FRCC(SE) 78 +1 MAAC(= NE) 57 +3 MAIN(CTR) 41 +1 MAPP(HP) 29 -2 NPCC(NE) 49 +2 SERC(SE) 65 +3 SPP(= SP) 48 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 -4 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 25 46 33 20 = 65 56 46 Max 47 31 52 40 32 67 62 52 Min 39 20 41 28 13 62 51 40 Range 8 11= 11 12 19 5 11 12 StD-P 2.0 3.6 4.4 3.8 5.5 1.4 3.6 4.6 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7= 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Day 8: Wednesday, November 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Cli= ck on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 58 +6 FRCC(SE= ) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 53 +13 MAIN(CTR) 27 -2 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 49 +8 SERC(= SE) 61 +11 SPP(SP) 39 +2 WSCC(NW) 31 +4 WSCC(RK) 25 +6 WSCC(SW) 48 +6 R= ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean = 32 24 47 34 26 63 53 49 Max 36 32 50 41 36 65 59 57 Min 27 17 44 31 21 62 4= 6 45 Range 9 15 6 10 15 3 13 12 StD-P 3.3 3.7 2.1 3.1 3.4 0.8 2.6 2.3 Count= 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V= olatility Matrix Day 9: Thursday, November 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: = Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 NC ERCOT(SP) = 64 +3 FRCC(SE) 70 -3 MAAC(NE) 34 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +6 MAPP(HP) 35 +15 NPCC(NE= ) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 58 +3 SPP(SP) 50 +9 WSCC(NW) 31 +5 WSCC(RK) 36 +20 WSCC(SW= ) 49 +11 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK = SE SP SW Mean 31 29 40 33 31 60 57 47 Max 33 38 45 35 38 63 61 49 Min 26 20= 33 31 24 56 51 44 Range 7 18 12 4 14 7 10 5 StD-P 2.3 6.4 4.5 1.4 5.5 1.6 = 3.9 2.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Friday, November 30, 2001 Syncras= y's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 += 6 ERCOT(SP) 70 +13 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 33 -5 MAIN(CTR) 49 +20 MAPP(HP) = 46 +27 NPCC(NE) 27 -3 SERC(SE) 58 -6 SPP(SP) 63 +24 WSCC(NW) 33 +2 WSCC(RK)= 32 +17 WSCC(SW) 48 +7 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg C= T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 32 31 26 57 61 42 Max 47 43 37 33 34 60 6= 9 48 Min 27 21 28 30 17 53 49 33 Range 20 22 9 3 17 7 20 15 StD-P 7.4 8.4 2= .8 1.2 6.4 1.9 6.5 5.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weathe= r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed = around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and Data= Wall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www= .apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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