|
|
Enron Mail |
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 Deve= lopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue Sui= te 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version of= Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you would l= ike to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncrasy= at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscribe_T= raderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this daily em= ail list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com - I= f you would like to be removed from this daily email please reply to = this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary= @syncrasy.com Data last updated: Wednesday, Oct 24, 2001 at 07:40AM ET = Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Oct 24, 2001 at 10:19AM ET Meteorol= ogist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulations Andy W= eingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Sea= sonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aqu= ila Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' = Today: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 72 +1 ERCOT(SP) 87 +2 FRCC(SE) 87 NC MAAC(= NE) 77 +1 MAIN(CTR) 57 NC MAPP(HP) 46 -1 NPCC(NE) 68 NC SERC(SE) 85 NC SPP(= SP) 70 NC WSCC(NW) 51 -1 WSCC(RK) 48 +2 WSCC(SW) 73 +1 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 58 45 67 46 43 = 79 78 71 Max 64 51 72 52 51 85 83 75 Min 55 39 64 41 34 75 72 65 Range 9 12= 8 11 17 10 11 10 StD-P 1.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 5.1 3.5 3.8 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 1= 0 10 10 10 Day 1-5 Discussion: Major Spring/Winter storm moving throug= h the Midwest. Record warm temperatures to be replaced by an unseasonably c= old air mass. However, pattern remains progressive so everything changes ag= ain next week. I try to avoid the hype that many use in regards to storms.= But, POTENTIALLY, this storm system could be one to remember. The Storm Pr= ediction Center in Oklahoma has placed parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Ke= ntucky and Michigan in a "High Risk" for severe weather this afternoon and = evening. This is a large area and very unusual for late October. Significan= t Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are possible. Farther East along the E= astern Seaboard, a day of near record highs are expected before the cold fr= ont arrives Thursday night. There is also a winter component to this storm.= Arctic air pouring in! to the upper Plains has produced some snow and near= zero wind chills in North Dakota. Very gusty winds and a 20-30 degree temp= erature drop will shift South and East over the next several days. There is= very little to write about in the West. The current pattern is zonal comin= g in from off the Pacific. The Northwest may be a little damp, but the rest= of the West remains dry and close to seasonal. This weekend, as the East C= oast trough reaches maximum amplitude, the jet in the Eastern Pacific shoul= d start to buckle allowing for a weak ridge to form in the Rockies. Tomorr= ow: Thursday, October 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility= Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en= large) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 NC ERCOT(SP) 76 +2 FRCC(SE) 86 +1 MAAC(NE) = 68 +1 MAIN(CTR) 49 NC MAPP(HP) 43 -1 NPCC(NE) 64 NC SERC(SE) 75 NC SPP(SP) = 64 NC WSCC(NW) 56 NC WSCC(RK) 53 NC WSCC(SW) 75 +1 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 43 45 63 51 48 72 6= 9 72 Max 48 53 66 57 55 77 78 76 Min 38 37 61 47 39 67 58 67 Range 10 16 5 = 10 16 10 20 9 StD-P 2.6 4.2 1.7 3.1 5.7 3.2 4.8 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10= 10 10 Day 3: Friday, October 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on i= mage to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 -2 ERCOT(SP) 75 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 -1= MAAC(NE) 53 NC MAIN(CTR) 46 -1 MAPP(HP) 41 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 +1 SERC(SE) 66 N= C SPP(SP) 63 NC WSCC(NW) 59 +2 WSCC(RK) 56 +5 WSCC(SW) 75 NC Range Stan= dard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 45 45 = 57 53 62 67 72 Max 44 52 50 61 60 67 75 75 Min 35 36 41 52 43 56 57 69 Rang= e 9 16 9 9 17 11 18 6 StD-P 2.4 4.5 2.7 2.5 5.2 3.5 5.5 2.0 Count 8 8 8 8 8= 8 8 8 Day 4: Saturday, October 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp= . Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on= image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +1 ERCOT(SP) 74 +5 FRCC(SE) 70 = -5 MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 47 +5 MAPP(HP) 50 +9 NPCC(NE) 46 -1 SERC(SE) 60= NC SPP(SP) 65 +7 WSCC(NW) 54 -5 WSCC(RK) 65 +8 WSCC(SW) 72 -1 Range St= andard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 52 4= 2 52 57 54 65 68 Max 46 59 46 56 66 61 72 72 Min 33 47 40 48 51 49 58 65 Ra= nge 13 12 6 8 15 12 14 7 StD-P 3.4 3.9 1.7 2.4 4.7 3.3 5.0 2.3 Count 6 6 6 = 6 6 6 6 6 Day 5: Sunday, October 28, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Tem= p. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click o= n image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 50 +7 ERCOT(SP) 75 +8 FRCC(SE) 71= +2 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 57 +10 NPCC(NE) 47 +1 SERC(SE) = 60 +4 SPP(SP) 69 +9 WSCC(NW) 54 -3 WSCC(RK) 61 NC WSCC(SW) 69 -3 Range = Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 47 57= 41 47 57 55 69 64 Max 57 63 48 54 64 62 75 69 Min 41 51 37 44 51 48 63 61 = Range 16 12 11 10 13 14 12 8 StD-P 5.7 4.5 3.1 3.0 3.9 5.1 4.9 2.7 Count 6 = 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 day outlook should bring th= e atmosphere back to roughly the current state(minus the big storm. I think= it is important to mention that the arctic air forecast for the East in th= e short term is NOT the beginning of an endless winter. Winter forecasts co= ntinue to be released showing a cold and snowy East. That may be the case, = but the calendar is just now approaching November or the middle of Fall. In= fact, most medium range models redevelop the Eastern ridge and Western tro= ugh for this period. We will be starting cold East of the Mississippi, but = should warm rapidly. I suspect the models are a little fast and strong with= the ridge/trough set up, but the trend looks good. The MRF has a weak trou= gh progressing into the Midwest by day 10 and this looks reasonable. Day 6= : Monday, October 29, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Mat= rix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarg= e) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 56 +8 ERCOT(SP) 75 +7 FRCC(SE) 77 +4 MAAC(NE) 56 += 4 MAIN(CTR) 57 +8 MAPP(HP) 55 +5 NPCC(NE) 51 +2 SERC(SE) 66 +6 SPP(SP) 70 += 9 WSCC(NW) 54 -2 WSCC(RK) 59 NC WSCC(SW) 65 -7 Range Standard Deviation= [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 55 44 48 52 58 68 61= Max 59 59 53 54 61 68 74 66 Min 45 52 41 44 45 52 64 56 Range 14 7 12 10 1= 6 16 10 10 StD-P 5.7 2.6 3.6 2.7 3.7 6.1 4.5 3.4 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Da= y 7: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility= Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en= large) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 59 +6 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 80 +5 MAAC(NE) = 59 +3 MAIN(CTR) 57 +4 MAPP(HP) 56 +2 NPCC(NE) 54 +3 SERC(SE) 69 +6 SPP(SP) = 68 +4 WSCC(NW) 54 -3 WSCC(RK) 54 -4 WSCC(SW) 65 -7 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 51 56 47 48 47 60 6= 6 60 Max 57 60 56 54 54 71 73 66 Min 46 53 43 45 43 54 63 55 Range 11 7 13 = 9 11 17 10 11 StD-P 2.6 2.2 3.7 2.8 3.9 4.3 3.1 4.2 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 = Day 8: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volat= ility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image = to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 49 +6 ERCOT(SP) 69 +7 FRCC(SE) 72 +6 MAAC= (NE) 52 +8 MAIN(CTR) 50 +3 MAPP(HP) 54 +6 NPCC(NE) 51 +8 SERC(SE) 61 +14 SP= P(SP) 63 +9 WSCC(NW) 45 -9 WSCC(RK) 44 -5 WSCC(SW) 56 -12 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 56 52 47 = 48 64 68 60 Max 58 58 57 54 54 72 73 66 Min 51 54 50 45 43 61 63 57 Range 7= 4 7 9 11 11 10 9 StD-P 1.8 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.8 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5= 5 Day 9: Thursday, November 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +9 ERCOT(SP) 70 +9 FRCC(SE) 74 +7 = MAAC(NE) 55 +8 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 54 +7 NPCC(NE) 52 +7 SERC(SE) 64 +1= 4 SPP(SP) 60 +2 WSCC(NW) 43 -6 WSCC(RK) 41 -11 WSCC(SW) 59 -9 Range Sta= ndard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 53 51 52= 44 43 66 67 59 Max 55 52 53 46 48 67 69 59 Min 49 51 48 43 41 64 65 59 Ran= ge 6 1 5 3 7 3 4 0 StD-P 1.9 0.3 1.9 1.4 2.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 = 4 4 Day 10: Friday, November 2, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 56 +18 ERCOT(SP) 69 +5 FRCC(SE) 75 +8= MAAC(NE) 59 +20 MAIN(CTR) 55 +9 MAPP(HP) 48 -1 NPCC(NE) 55 +17 SERC(SE) 65= +12 SPP(SP) 60 -2 WSCC(NW) 47 +2 WSCC(RK) 38 -9 WSCC(SW) 62 -2 Range S= tandard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 50 46 = 48 43 36 63 65 55 Max 53 48 56 48 38 67 67 62 Min 46 42 33 39 33 58 62 47 R= ange 7 6 23 9 5 9 5 15 StD-P 3.5 2.1 8.8 4.0 2.4 3.4 2.1 7.1 Count 4 4 4 4 = 4 4 4 4 Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]= Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be vi= ewed from www.syncrasy.comor www.apbenergy.comor www.truequote.com [IM= AGE] =09 =09=09=09
|