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The McKinsey Quarterly Newsletter: January 2002 =09 If you would prefer to view this newsletter as a Web page, point your Web= browser to: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/2002_01.htm [IM= AGE] Greetings from The McKinsey Quarterly! How does a bull market differ= from a bubble? The question is more than academic. If history's greatest b= ull market was really a speculative bubble, the United States faces prolong= ed economic stagnation-much like the aftermath of nearly every speculative = explosion from Holland's tulip mania to Japan's "bubble economy." Certainl= y, some of the recent US stock market euphoria wasn't justified. But the un= derpinnings of the US economy-unlike Japan's-are sound. Twenty-five years o= f deregulation, healthy competition, and renewed entrepreneurship have made= the US economy stronger than ever. A yearlong research project by the McK= insey Global Institute (MGI) found that US productivity growth rates nearly= doubled during the late 1990s, from 1.4 percent (1972-95) to 2.5 percent (= 1995-2000). The primary source of these gains, reports MGI, wasn't, as some= economists have claimed, increased demand resulting from the stock market = boom. Nor was it information technology. "What's right with the US economy= ," based on MGI's report, argues that the secret behind the new economy is= old-fashioned competition and managerial innovation. That offers ample rea= son for optimism. See you at the site! Lang Davison Editor, mckinseyquart= erly.com [IMAGE] This month at mckinseyquarterly.com Retail: The Wal-Ma= rt effect Retail may be the last place you would expect a productivity mi= racle. Yet retail productivity growth explains nearly one-quarter of the ec= onomy-wide acceleration in productivity that occurred in the United States = during the late 1990s. The reason can be stated in two syllables: Wal-Mart.= Computers: Why the party's over The computer- and semiconductor-manufac= turing industries account for a further one-quarter of the jump in the US p= roductivity growth rate during the late 1990s. But the tide has since turne= d for the worse-and the industries' fortunes may not improve in the next th= ree to five years. Banking: The IT paradox Surprisingly, dismal producti= vity growth trends in the banking industry stand in contrast to the success= stories in other parts of the US economy. It wasn't for lack of trying-the= industry's IT investments accelerated substantially. Why did its labor pro= ductivity growth rates actually fall? A tune-up for China's auto industry = Most global automakers have had big investments in China only since 1999,= so it may seem odd to advocate scaling them back now. Yet an asset-light s= trategy in China would allow carmakers to concentrate on what they do best-= developing products and brands-while contracting out the full production of= autos, and not just components, to Chinese manufacturers. For nonprofits,= time is money It isn't hard to fathom why nonprofits distribute their mo= ney cautiously. Yet society pays a price when foundations and nonprofit org= anizations stockpile their assets. The authors of this piece argue that gen= erously endowed nonprofits should spend their wealth sooner rather than lat= er. [IMAGE] Top 5 most popular articles in Health Care A new model for = disease management Unlocking the value in Big Pharma Health on-line-the b= est will get bigger Pharma: Can the middle hold? Hospitals get serious ab= out operations [IMAGE] The McKinsey Quarterly Reader Read the Reader! = Our current PDF bundle is "Strategy in an uncertain world ." Note: Adobe A= crobat Reader version 3.0 or higher is required. The large file size (740K)= may require a lengthy download time for users without a broadband connecti= on to the Internet. [IMAGE] Share the wealth! If you know colleagues who = would be interested in The McKinsey Quarterly, please forward this e-mail m= essage to them . [IMAGE] You are receiving this monthly newsletter because= you are a registered member of mckinseyquarterly.com , the on-line busines= s and economics journal published by McKinsey & Company, and have requested= this information be sent to you. Visit your member profile to change your= subscription preferences. There, you may unsubscribe from this newsletter= , subscribe to other McKinsey Quarterly e-mail services, change your e-mail= address, and make other revisions to your member account. To unsubscribe = from all McKinsey Quarterly mailing lists, click here to e-mail us your re= quest. YOU WILL RECEIVE NO FURTHER E-MAIL from The McKinsey Quarterly if yo= u take this action. PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS MESSAGE. Address question= s or comments to: quarterly_info@mckinsey.com =09 [IMAGE]
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