Non-firm power curve building

Hi Vince,

Amitava and I have received a request to build a non-firm power curve for
each region from David Hoog's Double Trigger folks. The objective, as they
explain it, is to allow the Desk to buy non-firm from the market, buy David's
outage product, and sell firm to the market. Accountants would like a curve
to mark the non-firm position.
My initial thought is that the desk should provide this non-firm curve, but
it seems that this market is very illiquid and they are reluctant so they
have put the ball in David Hoog's court to build the curve if David wants to
sell his product internally to the desk.
Assuming we build the curve, the next issue is how to define "non-firm"?
The only way I can think of is to tie the non-firmness to a specific
generation unit or group of units. This will allow the purchase of David's
outage product to cover the non-firmness risk. Tying the definition of
non-firmness to a whole region seems implausible --- what does it mean to
give a marketer the option to not deliver power if there is any problem
anywhere in the region? Consequently, the non-firm curve takes on a
unit-level interpretation, and not a region-level interpretation.
Consequently, I do not see how we can talk about the "non-firm curve for the
region"? We will need to build a non-firm curve for each generation unit or
group of units.

Maybe I could get your thoughts later today.

Thanks,

Vasant