![]() |
Enron Mail |
Hi Martina & Trena,
I made a few minor changes to the models... I reckon these models can be checked in Houston now - the raw data is included (see attached spreadsheets) and all the regression parameters and main statistics are displayed. I became interested in how far DZCV and PLLU should be below RPI and whether this model is reflecting any reversion to the RPI level; I believe that the forecasts are accurately reflecting this. Please see graphs below: Both models really need our RPI curve to be linked (at the moment I have just copied the 2.3% number forward). Because the auto-regressive error term is not very important, we can run the models forward with reasonable confidence. As I mentioned, I don't think we can really run this model more than 12 months, in fact, I think we should run for 9-12 months and blend the next 3-4 months out with the long-term model. Hope I can fix the long-term ones now with some new insight! Regards, Anjam x35383 PLLU: DZCV:
|