Enron Mail

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Subject:Natural Gas Futures Rally on Late Short-Covering
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Date:Tue, 29 Jan 2002 22:03:58 -0800 (PST)

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Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Wednesday, January 30 2002 No. 923
Visit: http://www.enerfax.com to view our web version or for Oil Prices &
News http://www.enerfaxgold.com

PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES
Gulf/Eastern Region
| Agua Dulce | 1.90 |
| ANR SE | 1.96 |
| Carthage TG | 1.95 |
| Chicago Citygate | 2.01 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 1.97 |
| Dominion South Point | 2.10 |
| Henry Hub | 1.97 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 2.01 |
| Katy Hub | 1.95 |
| NGPL LA Pool | 1.92 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 1.90 |
| NGPL STX | 1.92 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 1.91 |
| NNG Demarc. | 1.99 |
| Niagara | 2.17 |
| Sonat Tier 1 | 1.96 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 2.08 |
| Tetco ELa | 1.96 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.27 |
| Tetco STX | 1.92 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 1.92 |
| TGP Zone 1 (500 Leg) | 1.95 |
| TGT Zone SL | 1.97 |
| New York Citygate | 2.32 |
| Transco Station 65 | 2.05 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.32 |
| Trunk ELa | 1.95 |
| Western Region
| California Border | 2.07 |
| El Paso Keystone | 1.94 |
| El Paso San Juan-Blanco | 1.95 |
| Waha Hub | 1.93 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 2.73 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 2.12 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 2.00 |
| Wyoming Pool | 1.84 |
| Opal | 1.86 |
| PGT-Malin | 2.05 |
| Sumas | 2.00 |
Flow Date 1/30
-------------------------------------------------------------

NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub
12 Month Strip 2.4381 +0.0657
18 Month Strip 2.5883 +0.0617
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| FEB | 2.080 | 1.910 | 2.006 | +0.098 |
| MAR | 2.090 | 2.010 | 2.067 | +0.083 |
| APR | 2.180 | 2.100 | 2.150 | +0.071 |
| MAY | 2.270 | 2.200 | 2.240 | +0.065 |
| JUN | 2.350 | 2.280 | 2.320 | +0.065 |
| JUL | 2.395 | 2.350 | 2.393 | +0.063 |
| AUG | 2.445 | 2.390 | 2.453 | +0.063 |
| SEP | 2.455 | 2.420 | 2.458 | +0.059 |
| OCT | 2.480 | 2.450 | 2.488 | +0.059 |
| NOV | 2.720 | 2.690 | 2.718 | +0.054 |
| DEC | 2.930 | 2.900 | 2.933 | +0.054 |
| JAN | 3.025 | 3.000 | 3.031 | +0.054 |
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Natural Gas Futures Rally on Late Short-Covering


Natural gas futures for February delivery on the NYMEX powered upward
yesterday, driven by locals short-covering near the close. It ran as high
as $2.08 per MMBtu before expiring up $0.098 at $2.006 per MMBtu, but
still down 23% from when it began as the prompt month at $2.619 per MMBtu.
The March contract rose $0.083 to $2.067 per MMBtu. The expiration was the
lowest since October's $1.83 finish in late September. And prospects
remain bearish for the new prompt March contract, surrounded by bearish
technical and fundamental signals. Look for support at $1.76-$1.80. Mild
weather across much of the nation and the huge storage excess sent prices
mainly downward all month. Traders saw funds covering short positions
during the morning, with trading houses covering in the early afternoon.
Locals, which were short near the close, started buying. The market still
carries a huge $0.965 forward carry between the February-March contract
and January 2003. The larger that forward carry, the more bearish the
market can be. Look for more short-covering before selling brings the
market back down. The AGA will release its weekly storage report this
afternoon. Expect a withdrawal of about 110 - 120 Bcf. The 5-year average
for the week is 150 Bcf. A year ago there was a draw of 128 Bcf.
Yesterday's estimated volume was 127,000 contacts, with 47,000 of those
hedge or spreads. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and
Canada was generally flat to down $0.05 yesterday as cold weather moves
back into the Midwest. Natural gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub
lost $0.05 to $1.97 per MMBtu.
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Today's Power Bulletins
* Newfoundland Power 2001 Profit Up on Higher Sales
* Shares of Calpine Drop 8.6% Yesterday
* Shares of Mirant Drop 7.7% Yesterday
* FERC Meeting Today; Issues Include New Push to Address Market Power and
California Case
* Former FERC Chairman James Hoecker Spearheading New Lobbying Effort on
Behalf of Electricity Restructuring
* NRG Energy Achieves 2001 Earnings of $1.36 per Share
* Cleco Reports 2001 Earnings Up 8%
* PPL Reports 2001 Earnings Drop Sharply, But Increases Dividend by 36%
Forecasts 2002 EPS from Core Operations of $3.30 - $3.50.
* Capstone CEO to Speak at SSB Power Technology Conference February 5th
in
New York City
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FirstEnergy Merger-Related Staffing Reductions

FirstEnergy has implemented a work-force reduction affecting
duplicative positions resulting from its merger with GPU, which was
headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey. The reduction of 265 employees
is in line with staffing level recommendations made following an in-depth
study of operations. Affected employees primarily work in corporate
support groups in Reading, Pennsylvania, and Morristown, including
finance, legal, communications, human resources and information
technology. They qualify for severance benefits, including a lump-sum
payment based on years of service, career counseling, and up to three
months of career transition services. Merger related staffing actions to
date total 668 positions -- including this staffing reduction, 213
employees who left the company and will not be replaced, and 190 employees
who will be retained for several months up to 18 months to complete
merger-related transition assignments.
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Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
02FEB 65,394
02MAR 27,569
02APR 9,642
02MAY 4,348
02JUN 2,131
02JLY 4,109
02AUG 2,891
02SEP 1,714
02OCT 2,626
02NOV 1,293
02DEC 907
03JAN 2,158
03FEB 1,044
03MAR 1,015
03APR 60
03MAY 122
03JUN 821
03JLY 136
03AUG 202
03SEP 252
03OCT 14
03NOV 13
03DEC 63
04JAN 112
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Merrill Lynch Top Executives Involved in Enron Partnership

A report that Merrill Lynch executives invested in a limited
partnership, LJM2, which was used by Enron to inflate earnings and hide
debt from shareholders, has sent the investment company scurrying to deny
any wrongdoing. Merrill Lynch invited managing directors and senior
executives to invest in the partnerships after it helped Enron raise $349
million for the partnership from pension funds and other institutional
investors. Critics say that some investment banks may have been less
stringent in their scrutiny of Enron because senior executives were doing
business with it and had a vested interest in its profits, raising
questions about conflict of interest. The investments may be subject to
congressional examination after the House Energy and Commerce Committee
subpoenaed Enron's partnership records, including the identities of
investors. Enron has revealed that its former CFO made $30 million from 2
partnerships, including LJM2. Merrill Lynch says that the investment
partnership is in line with common industry practices. Merrill Lynch
claims that it was offered to qualified external as well as internal
investors, which would not be a conflict of interest.
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PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 19.25 | 18.15 | 18.55 |
| ECAR | 22.00 | 15.75 | 19.50 |
| ERCOT | 19.40 | 17.50 | 18.60 |
| Entergy | 18.00 | 16.00 | 16.95 |
| TVA | 20.40 | 18.65 | 19.35 |
| ComEd | 20.00 | 19.00 | 19.50 |
| Nepool | 27.75 | 27.00 | 27.30 |
| PJM West | 21.50 | 21.00 | 21.25 |
| Main | 20.00 | 17.50 | 18.90 |
| MAPP | 21.00 | 19.50 | 20.00 |
| Palo Verde | 26.00 | 23.50 | 24.30 |
| Mid C | 19.50 | 18.95 | 19.15 |
| COB | 22.00 | 21.00 | 21.35 |
| 4 Corners | 25.50 | 23.25 | 24.60 |
| Mead | 26.00 | 24.75 | 25.20 |
| NP 15 | 24.25 | 23.50 | 23.70 |
| SP 15 | 24.50 | 23.50 | 23.90 |
Power Delivered 1/30
-------------------------------------------------------------
CFTC Says No Enron Market Manipulation

Enron did not try to engage in market manipulation at any futures
exchange, according to testimony before the Senate Energy Committee by the
chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Both the CFTC
chairman and the FERC chairman said they did not see a need for new
federal market regulation because of Enron. FERC has found no substantial
spillover effects into the energy markets because of Enron. In the
aftermath of Enron's collapse, prices and energy markets remained stable,
with neither electric nor natural gas deliveries being disrupted.
-------------------------------------------------------------
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-------------------------------------------------------------
Todays Gas Bulletins
* El Paso Shares Tumble 6.2 % Yesterday
* Anadarko Says 3rd Quarter Charges Should Be $1.7 Billion Higher
* Northern Border Partners Reports 25% Increase in 4th Quarter Net Income
* House Energy and Commerce Committee Seeks Data on Andersen-Enron
Consulting
* TransCanada PipeLines 4th Quarter Profit Slips 5%, But Dividend Up 11%
* House of Representatives Speaker Dennis Hastert Backs President Bush's
Decision Not to Hand Over Records to Congressional Investigators on
Involvement by Enron
* China Seeking Foreign Partners to Build City Natural Gas Grid in
Shanghai; Plans to Double Supply to Meet Booming Consumption
* TC PipeLines Announces 17% Increase in 2001 Earnings; New Nasdaq
Trading
Symbol 'TCLP'
* Sempra Energy Trading Acquires Enron Metals Limited; Plans to
Capitalize on Synergies Between Energy and Metals Trading Markets
------------------------------------------------------------
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Enron Names Bankruptcy Specialist as Interim CEO


Enron has named Stephen Cooper, managing partner of Zolfo Cooper, as
interim chief executive officer and chief restructuring officer. Enron
also named Jeff McMahon as president and chief operating officer and Ray
Bowen as CFO. Cooper, McMahon and Bowen will take on the task of trying to
raise Enron from the ashes after its collapse. Coopers firm specializes in
resurrecting bankrupt companies. Cooper is currently handling the
bankruptcy reorganization of Greyhound Lines parent Laidlaw Inc, but
Laidlaw's restructuring is almost complete. Industry experts say that
Cooper must now balance the demands of the bankruptcy with running the
remaining businesses and handling the lawsuits and investigations related
to Enron's collapse. The new CEO says that with more than 19,000 employees
worldwide, Enron has real businesses with real value. He said that his
team will work closely with the Board of Directors, management and the
creditors' committee to develop a reorganization plan to maximize value
for the company's shareholders. He has already begun working for Enron.
Greg Whalley, who had been president and CEO resigned to take a position
with UBS Warburg, which acquired Enron's energy trading unit 2 weeks ago.
Enron has also agreed to sell businesses and long-term contracts for more
than $520 million and relinquished control of Northern Natural Pipeline to
Dynegy. Additionally, it plans to sell Portland General Electric to
Northwest Natural Gas for about $3 billion. There has been no word of when
the Board of Directors will name a new chairman to replace Ken Lay.
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POWER FUTURES
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| FEB | 21.25 | +0.00 | 21.25 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 18.50 | +0.00 | 21.25 | +0.25 |
| APR | 20.00 | +0.00 | 14.00 | -8.25 |
| MAY | 18.25 | +0.00 | 14.50 | -8.75 |
| JUN | 20.00 | +0.00 | 16.50 | -11.25 |
| JUL | 29.50 | +0.00 | 37.50 | -0.25 |
| AUG | 40.00 | +0.00 | 42.75 | +0.25 |
| SEP | 34.00 | +0.00 | 33.00 | +0.75 |
| OCT | 28.00 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 27.50 | +0.00 | 26.75 | +0.50 |
| DEC | 28.50 | +0.00 | 27.25 | +0.50 |
| JAN | 28.50 | +0.00 | 28.50 | +0.25 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| FEB | 18.25 | +0.00 | 19.70 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 19.50 | +0.25 | 21.00 | +0.15 |
| APR | 19.50 | +0.25 | 21.00 | +0.15 |
| MAY | 23.00 | +0.40 | 24.50 | +0.25 |
| JUN | 27.00 | +0.25 | 29.50 | +0.50 |
| JUL | 34.25 | +0.75 | 38.00 | +0.75 |
| AUG | 34.25 | +0.75 | 38.00 | +0.75 |
| SEP | 21.50 | -4.50 | 22.75 | +0.45 |
| OCT | 21.50 | +0.15 | 22.30 | +0.45 |
| NOV | 21.50 | +0.15 | 22.30 | +0.45 |
| DEC | 21.50 | +0.15 | 22.30 | +0.45 |
| JAN | 24.15 | -0.10 | 25.50 | +0.25 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Power Futures
| Month | PJM | Change |
| FEB | 23.50 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 24.35 | +0.30 |
| APR | 34.35 | +0.30 |
| MAY | 27.70 | +0.45 |
| JUN | 34.25 | +1.00 |
| JUL | 45.50 | +1.00 |
| AUG | 45.50 | +1.00 |
| SEP | 26.10 | +0.60 |
| OCT | 25.50 | +0.50 |
| NOV | 25.50 | +0.50 |
| DEC | 25.50 | +0.50 |
| JAN | 29.50 | +0.50 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Senate Committee Examines Enron's Impact on Energy Markets


Conventional futures exchanges like the NYMEX are entirely regulated
by the CFTC. But the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, passed
by Congress after a big lobbying effort by Enron, removed over-the-counter
and some on-line energy transactions from CFTC control. Those exempted
markets made up the bulk of Enron's trading operations. The CFTC is
working with the White House on auditing and accounting standards, and the
combination of its market supervisory functions under one agency division.
Although at least 8 other congressional probes are being conducted into
the financial and accounting facets of Enron's demise, the Senate Energy
Committee's authority is limited to the effects of Enron's meltdown on
energy markets and consumers. Legislators at the hearing saw little impact
from Enron on US energy markets. Some on the panel referred to it as
business failure, not an energy market failure. Even though the chairman
of the NYMEX has not call for any greater regulation of over-the-counter
markets, he has called on regulators to treat on-line exchanges and
traditional pit-based ones equally.
-------------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Derivatives at Root of Enron Collapse


Enron's extensive use of derivatives, not just its accounting
practices, lie at the root of its fall into bankruptcy. Enron had used
profits from its derivatives trading operation, which was little
understood by investors, to mask losses in its more visible businesses
even as some of its employees may have been fraudulently manipulating
those profits. Enron reaped huge profits from derivatives. But it lost
billions on most everything else it did, including projects in fiber-optic
bandwidth, retail natural gas and power, water systems and technology
stocks, but used its expertise in derivatives to hide these losses.
Derivatives are complex financial contracts whose values are linked to
underlying variables such as the prices of commodities, stocks or bonds.
They are used by sophisticated investors to manage risk. Enron's use of
derivatives both outside and inside the company can likely be directly
linked to its collapse. On the outside, they were used to create the
company's web of off-balance sheet deals with complex financial
partnerships known as special-purpose vehicles. After some of those deals
went sour, Enron in October took a $1 billion charge against earnings and
a $1.2 billion write-down in shareholder equity, triggering its nosedive
into bankruptcy. But Enron's derivatives problems ran far deeper than the
outside special purpose vehicles. It appears that some Enron employees
used dummy accounts and rigged valuation methodologies to create false
profit and loss entries for the derivatives Enron traded.
-------------------------------------------------------------

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-------------------------------------------------------------
Williams' Shares Plunge 22% on Telecom Debt


Shares of Williams tumbled 22% yesterday after it reported it may have
up to $2.4 billion in costs from Williams Communications which was spun
off last April. Williams may have to pay $1.4 billion in Williams
Communications debt if its credit rating falls below investment grade. It
also may owe $750 million in Williams Communications fiber optic-network
leases and $250 million in other expenses. Shares of Williams
Communications dropped 80% last year as growth evaporated with the dot.com
collapse. In the past month, Williams sold securities and cut capital
spending to strengthen its balance sheet amid increased scrutiny by
credit-rating agencies in the wake of Enron's collapse. It also plans to
sell assets to maintain the all-important investment-grade debt rating.
Because of the debt review, Williams delayed reporting 4th quarter results
that had been scheduled for release yesterday. The review will have no
direct impact on Williams Communications business, the company said in a
statement. However, the stock market is in the process of evaluating the
situation and is assuming the worst. Williams' shares fell $5.3, to $18.78
yesterday. Its 7.75% coupon maturing in 2031 fell about $42 to $921 per
$1,000 face value from $963. That pushed the yield up to 8.48% from 8.08%.
Williams's convertible preferred stock, which was sold this month at $25,
tumbled $3.93 to $21.65 per share. Enron had $724 million in losses from
telecommunications in the 3rd quarter. Global Crossing filed for
bankruptcy protection Monday after it accumulated $12 billion in debt it
was unable to repay because of falling sales. Shares Williams
Communications fell $0.29 to $1.34 yesterday.
-------------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 lost 76.59 points to 7567.14
The CRB Index fell 0.56 points to 187.31
The US Dollar decreased 0.49 points to 119.38
The Dow declined 247.51 points to 9618.24
The S&P 500 dipped 32.42 points to 1100.64
The Nasdaq was down 50.92 points to 1892.99
March NYMEX Crude Oil dropped 0.47 to 19.58
Canadian-US Exchange slid 0.0221 to 1.5904
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