GRI and Gas Storage

---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 03/27/2000
08:48 AM ---------------------------

Robert Brooks <rebrooks@earthlink.net< on 03/22/2000 12:45:20 PM
Please respond to "rebrooks@rbac.com" <rebrooks@rbac.com<
To: "'GPCM Distribution'" <rebrooks@rbac.com<
cc: (bcc: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT)
Subject: GRI and Gas Storage

Gri Study Documents Changing Role of Natural Gas Storage
( March 21, 2000 )

(reported in http://powermarketers.com 3/22/2000)
(forwarded to you by Bob Brooks, RBA Consultants)

ARLINGTON, Va., March 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Regulatory changes coupled with
steady growth in U.S. natural gas consumption are expected to trigger a 21
percent increase in gas storage capacity over the next 15 years, according
to a new GRI study.
The study -- Natural Gas Storage Overview in a Changing Market Environment
(GRI-99/0200) -- estimates that lower 48 storage capacity for working gas
will grow from 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1998 to 4.6 Tcf in 2015.
About 75 percent of the capacity additions are expected to occur after
2005, as gas demand grows more rapidly than storage capacity requirements
during the next five years.
Part of the new capacity will provide storage operators with increased
operating flexibility and augment changing needs of the power generation
and industrial sectors. These two sectors are expected to account for
nearly 80 percent of growth in gas consumption between 1998 and 2015. (GRI
projects the nation's gas demand will increase 50 percent, from 21.3 Tcf in
1998 to 32.8 Tcf in 2015.)
The added storage capacity will require a gas industry investment of nearly
$5.0 billion (1998 dollars) between 1998 and 2015, or about $270 million
per year, the study estimates.
The study, conducted for GRI by Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc.,
Arlington, Va., identifies several trends that will drive future storage
requirements, including:
* High consumption by power generation and industrial markets dampens
seasonal volatility. Since these sectors have relatively flat
year-round load profiles, they act to compliment rather than
stimulate short term demand swings in traditional residential and
commercial applications which drive the need for increased storage
capacity to overcome seasonal differences.
* Increases in the value of market-area storage to accommodate significant
growth in gas usage for power generation are anticipated. Due to
improvements in technology, favorable economics, and low emissions,
natural gas is expected to be the preferred incremental fuel for
power generation for the foreseeable future.
* Pipeline restructuring is changing the role and value of storage. Most
notable are the development of secondary markets for storage and
pipeline capacity, growth of market hubs and gas marketers, and a shift
toward market-based rates.
* Storage services are likely to become more efficient as a result of
local distribution company restructuring. Storage operators are
expected to have a direct profit motive to maximize the value of storage
and are likely to offer new services that use existing facilities more
effectively.
"These trends are already beginning to have a major impact on gas storage
operations and will only be magnified in the future," said John Cochener,
GRI project manager and principal analyst-resource evaluation. "We are
already seeing increases in the value of well-placed storage facilities,
particularly those able to capitalize on regulatory changes that allow for
greater operating flexibility. The reduction in regulatory constraints will
allow storage market players even greater latitude in the future to
experiment with innovative competitive tools. This will result in greater
flexibility in the timely movements of gas to where it's required.
Conversely, high-cost storage operators, who fail to respond to the
changing market by offering more flexibility, may eventually find
themselves at a competitive disadvantage in the future and may see the
value of their storage asset stagnate."
The study is GRI's most comprehensive look at gas storage markets. Included
is an analysis of changes in storage capacity, services, customer usage
patterns and costs, as well as proposed storage projects. LNG and
Propane-Air are covered in addition to traditional types of storage
facilities. The study also reviews future storage requirements, costs
associated with expanding different types of storage capacity, and the
merits of different storage locations.
The study also looks at storage capacity under existing contracts. One
finding is that the average length of time until contract expiration for
firm storage contracts has declined from 6.8 years in 1996 to 6.2 years in
1999. More than half of the existing contracts in spring 1999 will expire
by 2004. By 2006, 70 percent of existing contracts will have expired.
Further, storage operators will generally be replacing storage contracts
negotiated by local distribution companies (with guaranteed rates of
return) with contracts negotiated by the growing ranks of gas marketers,
who are under competitive pressure to hold down costs.
The number of years remaining under existing storage contracts varies by
customer type, according to the study. Currently, cogenerators and
independent power producers have the longest remaining contract lengths,
followed by pipelines, gas utilities and marketers. Electric utilities and
industrial customers have the shortest average contract lengths remaining.
Listed in the study are the top 50 storage capacity holders.
Questions about the study or ordering should be addressed to Kelly Murray,
GRI Baseline Center, Arlington, Va., at 703-526-7832; by fax at
703-526-7805; or by E-mail: mailto:baseline@gri.org <<a href=< The study
(GRI-99/0200) can be ordered directly from the GRI Document Fulfillment
Center by fax at 630-406-5995. The report is $250 for GRI members and $325
for nonmembers, plus shipping and handling.