PROFESSOR JIM ELSNER'S VISIT: FEBRUARY 22

---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 02/22/2001
09:30 AM ---------------------------
From: Todd Kimberlain/ENRON@enronXgate on 02/21/2001 09:21 AM
To: Hunter S Shively/HOU/ECT@ECT, George Hopley/HOU/ECT@ect, Kyle
Berryman/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Bob Beyer/ENRON@enronXgate,
Reno Casimir/ENRON@enronXgate, Huy Dinh/ENRON@enronXgate, Partho
Ghosh/ENRON@enronXgate, "Gil, Eduardo"
<Eduardo.Gil@ENRON.com<@SMTP@enronXgate, D Todd Hall/ENRON@enronXgate, Joseph
Hrgovcic/ENRON@enronXgate, Michael Nguyen/ENRON@enronXgate, Timothy M
Norton/ENRON@enronXgate, Sandeep Ramachandran/ENRON@enronXgate, Claudio
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Subject: PROFESSOR JIM ELSNER'S VISIT: FEBRUARY 22

Professor Jim Elsner from the Department of Meteorology/Geography at Florida
State University will be visiting the Weather Risk Management group on
Thursday, 22 February 2001. Professor Elsner is a leading expert in
hurricane climate studies, whose current studies include variations in
tropical cyclone frequency over a variety of time scales and shifts/trends in
hurricane landfall probabilities and their relationship to climate and
climate change; he is noted for his seasonal predictions for number of
hurricanes and landfall probabilities along segments of the U.S. coastline.
Moreover, he is a leading authority in non-linear dynamics and chaos theory
and has published a number of papers on these topics.

His talk will focus on a proposed research topic, which will provide Enron
with climatological instruments for use in the insurance and long-term
derivative markets. The research involves a
Bayesian analysis of the longest available record of hurricane activity along
the U.S. coastline. His current, proposed study addresses the hurricane
threat in the United States, but the methodology can be applied elsewhere.
The techniques also can be applied to climate extremes including
precipitation and
temperature.

The talk entitled, "Predictive U.S. Hurricane Climate" is scheduled for 9
a.m. at the Hyatt -- Arboretum 5 (2nd Floor).

All are cordially invited to attend.

Best regards,
Todd Kimberlain