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---------------------- Forwarded by Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT on 08/09/2000
03:24 PM --------------------------- Nathan Mantua <mantua@atmos.washington.edu< on 08/09/2000 03:21:37 PM To: Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Subject: Re: PDO I'm not sure what to think, other than we really don't have a credible way to determine what will happen with the PDO. One factor that provides insight into the climate outlook for the next few months and next few seasons is the expected changes with ENSO (for which there is some demonstrated skill in forecasting). The latest observations show trends to near-normal ENSO conditions, with some indication that ocean temperatures will likely be a bit warmer than normal in the tropics. If this is true, I'd expect a slight bias toward El Nino-like climate over North America, which would tend to go against the continuation of cold phase PDO conditions. best wishes, Nate Mantua mrobert@ect.enron.com wrote: < Hi < < Are you thinking we are moving into a cold phase PDO now?? < < Thanks < < Mike Roberts -- ~~~~~~~~~?Nathan Mantua EMAIL: mantua@atmos.washington.edu?(206) 616-5347 FAX: (206) 616-5775??Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, JISAO?University of Washington?Box 354235?Seattle WA 98195-4235??http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua?~~~~~~~~~ - att1.htm
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