Trade idea

Thinking about bull move, the only trade I really like is being long physical
and short NYMEX. If you believe that NYMEX is doing a "buzz lightyear"
(infinity and beyond), the next question is where does that put the cash.
Back in '95, Chicago cash went to $40 and merc died out sub 5 dollars. Also,
'95 had a huge geographic basis rift, the structural shift had Z3 trading
about $1.50 over Waha. On the upside, cash will suffer constraints, causing
demand spikes. On the downside, cash shouldn't materially outpace NYMEX.

Reviewing geographic arbs and considering the east coast political
environment (high potential for congressional intervention) as well as ok-ish
storage, the East may be the best basis sell vs. a long west trade (Waha I'm
uncertain about, particularly if the cold doesn't hit Texas...Chicago might
be better given what's going on there except for the Alliance issue...Socal
appears to be the best geographic long...PGE citygate could really rock given
storage and increase supply competition given Alliance PL... The
Z6/Chicago spread is trading around $1.56 for the winter (FH) and approx. a
dime in today's intra-month. The Z6 vs. NGI-PGE/CG spread has the Jan-Mar
around .94 cents, Z6 over. Intra-month it is trading at $2.43, PGE/CG over
Z6 (I'm waiting on additional stats, but I think I like this trade...)

Additionally, playing the '95 scenario, we should be long every basis
downstream of Henry and short something else, maybe NYMEX, Waha, Katy
(notice smaller font) I'm still reviewing economic stats regarding the
drivers to these trades such as, Sable Island, LNG, Chippewa (Canadian
imports) and Chicago/California storage . As well as evaluating which
geography would be the best buy....

Preliminary trades (let me know which ones strike your interest and I'll
focus my analysis..)

Long NGI-PGE/CG, Short Z6
Long CNG North Valley, Short Z6
Long NGPL Lousiana pool, short MOPS, TETCO STX
Long CGT, short NYMEX (not very exciting, small basis)
Long Z6, short Chippewa
Long physical, short NYMEX

Still looking, still thinking, but gun-to-my-head....

Frank