Enron Mail

From:timely-invest@mail-list.com
To:alewis@enron.com
Subject:Weekly Economic Update
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Sat, 17 Nov 2001 06:32:49 -0800 (PST)

WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 44

TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update
======================================================

Welcome !

For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section
on our website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html
It lists the original copy of each of our research reports,
at the time of publication.

Because of the long holiday weekend, we will not publish
next week. Happy Thanksgiving !

=============================================================

PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS
===========================

INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE
==================================

For everyone who has enjoyed reading our newsletter but has
not had the $200,000 required for our personal, individual,
asset management services, we have an incredible announcement
to make: Green Mountain Asset Management Corp. and
BridgePortfolio.com of Chicago, IL have created an alliance
where you can now invest in the Green Mountain Asset Growth
Portfolio through BridgePortfolio with a low minimum of
$10,000. Your individual account will be set up at Schwab
Institutional, which gives you 24 hr. web access. Green
Mountain Asset, as a sub-advisor, will instruct
BridgePortfolio what to buy and sell. BridgePortfolio.com, as
your investment advisor, will execute trades on your behalf
only in accordance with our instructions.

Simple as that! Click here for more details.

http://www.bridgeportfolio.com/index.asp?RelCode=GM4005VT

Or call 800-610-8882 Monday thru Friday-9:00 am-5:00 pm CST

============================================================

This is a text only copy that should be fairly well
formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you
that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click
on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy.

http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html

============================================================

WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: November 17, 2001

Prior Week in Review:

Financial Market Highlights:
============================

11/16/01 11/09/01 %Change

S&P 500 1,138.65 1,120.31 +1.64%
Dow Jones 9,866.99 9,608.00 +2.70%
NASD Comp 1,898.58 1,828.48 +3.83%
Russell 2000 451.31 438.10 +3.02%
SOX Index 529.92 506.81 +4.56%
Value Line 350.48 339.37 +3.27%
MS Growth 552.08 543.40 +1.60%
MS Cyclical 518.64 493.85 +5.02%
T - Bill 1.89% 1.80% +9 BP
Long Bond 5.30% 4.88% +42 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $274.90 $277.70 -$2.80
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.10 $4.08 +$.02


Economic News:
==============

Good Economic News Last Week - Retail Sales Strong
Jobless Claims Continue To Improve - Still Some Negatives
Best Bet Still For Recovery To Be Underway By Spring


*Richmond FRB Shipments Index -8 in Oct from 3 in Sept.
*October Retail Sales rose a record +7.1% - Led by Autos
Sales up +1.0% even without autos - Strong gain
*Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 444,000 - Four Week
Moving Average fell -13,000 to 474,750
*Sept. Business Inventories fell -.5% - Sales fell -2.8%
Inventory/Sales ratio edges up to 1.45 months from 1.42
*Philadelphia FRB Survey for October -20.2 - Up from -27.4
*Industrial Production in Oct fell -1.1% - Capacity
Utilization down to 74.8% from Sept. level of 75.7%
*October Consumer Prices down -.3% - Core Rate - Without
Volatile Food & Energy Costs - rose +.2% - As expected


Longer term readers know that we have long believed that
given the wherewithal and the confidence, the American
consumer will spend. Lately the confidence factor has
been shaken somewhat, but now appears to be stabilizing.
And even though the labor markets have weakened, income
growth is still good. So, the consumer did what we
hoped for, and to a lessened extent expected - they spent,
big time, in October.

We knew the overall retail sales number would be big, as
in a prior newsletter we had pointed out the incredible
annualized rate of auto sales driven by 0% financing. And,
of course, auto sales are a big part of overall retail
sales. What we didn't know, but were impressed by, was
the solid gain in retail sales ex autos.

The important point here is simply that going into the
all important holiday selling season consumers were
willing to spend at a pretty good clip. This has
nothing to do with cheap financing, and bodes well
for fourth quarter retail sales - an important driver
of two thirds of economic activity.

The downside to the October burst of auto sales, and
the announced plans to continue cheap financing through
year end, is simply that sales are being "stolen" from
early next year. At some point, it would seem relatively
obvious that production will have to slow, which would
slow a recovery, or stretch out the time frame of a
period of sub par growth. But, at the moment, our
preference is for the recession not to deepen, rather
than worry too much about the slope of the recovery.

The jobless claims number has also continued to improve.
We are not trying to make the case that unemployment
won't go up, it will. But, the pace of new layoffs is at
least not accelerating, and could be stabilizing. So,
another bit of good news.

There was also a very significant, at least in my opinion,
bit of news that was a page one story for Investors
Business Daily - to their credit. The headline was:
"Greenspan Is Upbeat on Productivity, Sees Best Of Tech
Boom Still Ahead". Greenspan also talked about energy, and
the need for more nuclear power, but my immediate focus
is the productivity issue.

Again, longer term readers know that we were very pleased
with recent productivity data, and thought that as a
recovery unfolds, productivity growth should move up. But,
Chairman Greenspan's views are what count - and for the
moment it doesn't much matter whether he is right. What
matters is what Chairman Greenspan believes and the policy
implications. The news is good.

Simply put, given his belief that productivity growth will
accelerate, the FOMC will be much less likely to raise rates
sharply as the recovery begins to gain strength - say the
middle of next year. This is not to say they won't raise rates,
but it does seem likely that they won't be aggressive to the
upside as they have been to the downside. Good news for
investors - at least in the intermediate term.

For it to be good news longer term, Chairman Greenspan
has to be right and productivity growth must accelerate to
allay our concern about a potential buildup of inflationary
pressures as the recovery strengthens.

At the moment, we will be content with a recovery taking hold
this Spring. It still seems like the best bet given the
powerful monetary stimulus already in place, sharply falling
energy prices (i.e. the equivalent of a modest tax cut), and
fiscal stimulus. We like the odds. Stay tuned !



Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================


Monday: Housing Starts, Leading Indicators
Tuesday: International Trade
Wednesday: Jobless Claims, Univ. of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment
Thursday: THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED
Friday: FOMC Minutes



Fresh Money Buys:
=================

In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this
section to highlight recommendations from our list that we
believe are the most attractively priced currently. We will
limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of
recommendations changes.

American Int'l Group (AIG) $81.12
Emerson Electric (EMR) $52.89
Fannie Mae (FNM) $81.11


Original reports from the time of recommendation, are
available on our Website at:

http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html


We will not track the performance of this list as we are
already monitoring the original recommendations. Hope
this helps.

**************************************************************

INVESTOOLS
==========

Buyback Expert Earns 27.03% YTD with High-Tech Portfolio

David Fried knows a stock is cheap when the company buys
back its shares. That's how he earned 27.03% YTD in techs
while the benchmark Nasdaq fell 31.58%. 'Buy these 3 tech
buybacks today,' Fried says. Get them with a FREE trial:

http://www.investools.com/c/go/BACK/SR-backTW1


INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY - FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL OFFER
=====================================================

FREE TWO WEEK TRIAL to America's Fastest Growing Newspaper
and the FREE VIDEOTAPE "Maximizing Your Success." CLICK

http://ibd.infostreet.com/cgi-bin/freeoffer.cgi?source=ALA1GE2

NO CREDIT CARD INFORMATION REQUIRED

**************************************************************

CLASSIFIED ADS
==============

PARIS VACATION RENTALS - Apartment on Historic Ile Saint Louis
Better Plan Ahead - Only A Few Months Left For 2002
http://www.paris-vacation-rental.com

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR - By Benjamin Graham-Only $21.00-Save 40%
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060155477/greenmountainass

VALUE INVESTING: FROM GRAHAM TO BUFFETT AND BEYOND - Only $34.96
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471381985/greenmountainass

THE THEORY OF INVESTMENT VALUE - John Burr Williams - Only $29.95
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/087034126X/greenmountainass

WHEN GENIUS FAILED: THE RISE AND FALL OF LONG TERM-CAPITAL ...
Another Roger Lowenstein book about the markets - Only $21.56
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/037550317X/greenmountainass


**************************************************************

SURVEY
======

It would really help us if you would take our brief survey, so
that we have a better understanding of our users and so that
we can sell targeted advertising, which keeps our services
free to you. A benefit to you and us. So, please take just
two minutes to fill out a 13 question survey. There is no
information requested to identify you personally as our only
interest is in the aggregate data. Thank you very much for
your help !

http://38.148.250.3/cgi-win/client.exe?readers,welcome,ad1321a,2000

To return here, after you have completed the survey, File
Close works better than the method suggested at the
survey site.

**************************************************************

As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website,
we welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at:
mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com

To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to:
timely-invest-off@mail-list.com
Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed.

To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to:
timely-invest-on@mail-list.com

To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the
subject line and the other address in the from line and send to:
timely-invest-change@mail-list.com

DISCLAIMER:
===========

The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete
description of the securities, markets, or developments
referred to in the material. All expressions of opinion
are subject to change without notice. The information is
obtained from internal and external sources which we
consider reliable but we have not independently verified
such information and we do not guarantee that it is
accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you
to any changes in figures or our views. We, our employees,
clients, and or officers and directors, may from time to
time have a long or short position in the securities
mentioned and may sell or buy such securities.




--
Bob Bose
Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401
FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com
FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily
http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html
800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To subscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-on@mail-list.com
To unsubscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-off@mail-list.com
To change your email address, send a message to timely-invest-change@mail-list.com
with the other address in the Subject: line



This message was launched into cyberspace to alewis@enron.com