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WELCOME - Vol. 6 No. 44
TIMELY INVESTMENT INFORMATION - Weekly Economic Update ====================================================== Welcome ! For new and old subscribers, there is an Archive Section on our website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html It lists the original copy of each of our research reports, at the time of publication. Because of the long holiday weekend, we will not publish next week. Happy Thanksgiving ! ============================================================= PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS =========================== INDIVIDUAL MANAGEMENT FOR EVERYONE ================================== For everyone who has enjoyed reading our newsletter but has not had the $200,000 required for our personal, individual, asset management services, we have an incredible announcement to make: Green Mountain Asset Management Corp. and BridgePortfolio.com of Chicago, IL have created an alliance where you can now invest in the Green Mountain Asset Growth Portfolio through BridgePortfolio with a low minimum of $10,000. Your individual account will be set up at Schwab Institutional, which gives you 24 hr. web access. Green Mountain Asset, as a sub-advisor, will instruct BridgePortfolio what to buy and sell. BridgePortfolio.com, as your investment advisor, will execute trades on your behalf only in accordance with our instructions. Simple as that! Click here for more details. http://www.bridgeportfolio.com/index.asp?RelCode=GM4005VT Or call 800-610-8882 Monday thru Friday-9:00 am-5:00 pm CST ============================================================ This is a text only copy that should be fairly well formatted for most e-mail programs. For those of you that would prefer an easier to read format, simply click on the link to our website, and if you want, print a copy. http://www.stockresearch.com/weekecon.html ============================================================ WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: November 17, 2001 Prior Week in Review: Financial Market Highlights: ============================ 11/16/01 11/09/01 %Change S&P 500 1,138.65 1,120.31 +1.64% Dow Jones 9,866.99 9,608.00 +2.70% NASD Comp 1,898.58 1,828.48 +3.83% Russell 2000 451.31 438.10 +3.02% SOX Index 529.92 506.81 +4.56% Value Line 350.48 339.37 +3.27% MS Growth 552.08 543.40 +1.60% MS Cyclical 518.64 493.85 +5.02% T - Bill 1.89% 1.80% +9 BP Long Bond 5.30% 4.88% +42 BP Gold - Oz-Near Month $274.90 $277.70 -$2.80 Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.10 $4.08 +$.02 Economic News: ============== Good Economic News Last Week - Retail Sales Strong Jobless Claims Continue To Improve - Still Some Negatives Best Bet Still For Recovery To Be Underway By Spring *Richmond FRB Shipments Index -8 in Oct from 3 in Sept. *October Retail Sales rose a record +7.1% - Led by Autos Sales up +1.0% even without autos - Strong gain *Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 444,000 - Four Week Moving Average fell -13,000 to 474,750 *Sept. Business Inventories fell -.5% - Sales fell -2.8% Inventory/Sales ratio edges up to 1.45 months from 1.42 *Philadelphia FRB Survey for October -20.2 - Up from -27.4 *Industrial Production in Oct fell -1.1% - Capacity Utilization down to 74.8% from Sept. level of 75.7% *October Consumer Prices down -.3% - Core Rate - Without Volatile Food & Energy Costs - rose +.2% - As expected Longer term readers know that we have long believed that given the wherewithal and the confidence, the American consumer will spend. Lately the confidence factor has been shaken somewhat, but now appears to be stabilizing. And even though the labor markets have weakened, income growth is still good. So, the consumer did what we hoped for, and to a lessened extent expected - they spent, big time, in October. We knew the overall retail sales number would be big, as in a prior newsletter we had pointed out the incredible annualized rate of auto sales driven by 0% financing. And, of course, auto sales are a big part of overall retail sales. What we didn't know, but were impressed by, was the solid gain in retail sales ex autos. The important point here is simply that going into the all important holiday selling season consumers were willing to spend at a pretty good clip. This has nothing to do with cheap financing, and bodes well for fourth quarter retail sales - an important driver of two thirds of economic activity. The downside to the October burst of auto sales, and the announced plans to continue cheap financing through year end, is simply that sales are being "stolen" from early next year. At some point, it would seem relatively obvious that production will have to slow, which would slow a recovery, or stretch out the time frame of a period of sub par growth. But, at the moment, our preference is for the recession not to deepen, rather than worry too much about the slope of the recovery. The jobless claims number has also continued to improve. We are not trying to make the case that unemployment won't go up, it will. But, the pace of new layoffs is at least not accelerating, and could be stabilizing. So, another bit of good news. There was also a very significant, at least in my opinion, bit of news that was a page one story for Investors Business Daily - to their credit. The headline was: "Greenspan Is Upbeat on Productivity, Sees Best Of Tech Boom Still Ahead". Greenspan also talked about energy, and the need for more nuclear power, but my immediate focus is the productivity issue. Again, longer term readers know that we were very pleased with recent productivity data, and thought that as a recovery unfolds, productivity growth should move up. But, Chairman Greenspan's views are what count - and for the moment it doesn't much matter whether he is right. What matters is what Chairman Greenspan believes and the policy implications. The news is good. Simply put, given his belief that productivity growth will accelerate, the FOMC will be much less likely to raise rates sharply as the recovery begins to gain strength - say the middle of next year. This is not to say they won't raise rates, but it does seem likely that they won't be aggressive to the upside as they have been to the downside. Good news for investors - at least in the intermediate term. For it to be good news longer term, Chairman Greenspan has to be right and productivity growth must accelerate to allay our concern about a potential buildup of inflationary pressures as the recovery strengthens. At the moment, we will be content with a recovery taking hold this Spring. It still seems like the best bet given the powerful monetary stimulus already in place, sharply falling energy prices (i.e. the equivalent of a modest tax cut), and fiscal stimulus. We like the odds. Stay tuned ! Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: ========================================= Monday: Housing Starts, Leading Indicators Tuesday: International Trade Wednesday: Jobless Claims, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Thursday: THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED Friday: FOMC Minutes Fresh Money Buys: ================= In response to subscriber feedback, we have established this section to highlight recommendations from our list that we believe are the most attractively priced currently. We will limit the selections to three each week, even as our list of recommendations changes. American Int'l Group (AIG) $81.12 Emerson Electric (EMR) $52.89 Fannie Mae (FNM) $81.11 Original reports from the time of recommendation, are available on our Website at: http://www.stockresearch.com/archive.html We will not track the performance of this list as we are already monitoring the original recommendations. 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Another Roger Lowenstein book about the markets - Only $21.56 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/037550317X/greenmountainass ************************************************************** SURVEY ====== It would really help us if you would take our brief survey, so that we have a better understanding of our users and so that we can sell targeted advertising, which keeps our services free to you. A benefit to you and us. So, please take just two minutes to fill out a 13 question survey. There is no information requested to identify you personally as our only interest is in the aggregate data. Thank you very much for your help ! http://38.148.250.3/cgi-win/client.exe?readers,welcome,ad1321a,2000 To return here, after you have completed the survey, File Close works better than the method suggested at the survey site. ************************************************************** As we continue to build both our Newsletter and our Website, we welcome your feedback, so please feel free to e-mail me at: mailto:bobbose@stockresearch.com To UNSUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-off@mail-list.com Be sure to use the e-mail address from which you subscribed. To SUBSCRIBE, just send an e-mail to: timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To CHANGE, put either your new or old e-mail address in the subject line and the other address in the from line and send to: timely-invest-change@mail-list.com DISCLAIMER: =========== The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in the material. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. The information is obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. We do not undertake to advise you to any changes in figures or our views. We, our employees, clients, and or officers and directors, may from time to time have a long or short position in the securities mentioned and may sell or buy such securities. -- Bob Bose Green Mtn. Asset Mgt. Corp., 139 Bank Street, Burlington, VT 05401 FREE Investment Newsletter - http://www.stockresearch.com FREE Trial Investor's Business Daily http://www.stockresearch.com/ibdform.html 800 - 385- 2673 / 802 - 658 - 7806 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To subscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-on@mail-list.com To unsubscribe, send a blank message to timely-invest-off@mail-list.com To change your email address, send a message to timely-invest-change@mail-list.com with the other address in the Subject: line This message was launched into cyberspace to alewis@enron.com
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