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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:27:08 GMT
Subject:

Sees NG lows in place
Producers reacting to price mgmt
Coal swithcing to NG and power guys stimulating demand
But thinks jan feb neds to come of

Bull spead
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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:27:19 GMT
Subject:

Thinks pwr suppliers in Calif shud be worried abt getting paid the long term contracts rates
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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:22:26 GMT
Subject:

Ignore previous - forecasts:
Cinergy novdec 25.75 )al 02 30.75
Cal 03 38.51

Pjm novdec 27.31 cal 02 35.14. Cal 03 39.12

Problem with pwr overbuild of capacity - longer cycle than NG- the oversupply takes longer to fix - price will fix
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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:22:14 GMT
Subject:

By end of oct 02 if have normal winter, = 1.3 end of mar 02 + 2.5 this yrs inj rate + 0.4 with inc hydro gen = 3.8 - can't happen so needprice low - shocks to industry to stop to inc demand
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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:11:05 GMT
Subject:

Cdn alberta prod = mature GOM, need to see prod sustain - don't think happen - need LNG

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From: </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=RZIVIC<
To: Arnold, John </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=Jarnold<
Date: Thursday, October 11, 2001 3:10:56 GMT
Subject:

Supply side is the side that changed- medium term -
Expect cal 02 avg 2.45 nymex
Q1 2.20 q2 2.30 q3 2.57 q4 2.73
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