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Enron Mail |
Results of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll taken after the close on 02/1
Response was to this question: "At the end of next week will the S & P 500 close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?" IT BULLS: 19% IT BEARS: 71% Our `Smart Money' Poll was twice as Bullish as Bearish and Neutral. The Senticator is Neutral but almost Bearish. Last week, we said that our guess was that we would see a bit of strength to make the "Smart Money" guys feel good, but by the end of the week we'd be heading south. We also reiterated our opinion that a Top of Intermediate Proportions was in. Not bad at all, if we do say so ourselves. This week, we have to look for some lower prices, but with such a plurality of Fearless Forecaster Bears, it's quite possible that we'll get a nice reversal after a bit of weakness. The "Smart Money" appears to agree. The Senticator, however, is throwing off neutral to bearish readings. We aren't sure what to make of that. The best bet is to look for weakness early, and if not then, then later in the week. Should we have a hard decline early in the week, we would on the look-out for a sharp reversal. That is technically the odds on play when there is a large plurality (better than 70%) of Bears. Note, however, that 71% is not as large a plurality as it might be. We don't have a lot of data with readings like that, so our confidence is not as high as it would be with a reading of 85%-90% Bears. Mark Young See www.Traders-Talk.com in the Market Analysis area for a historical chart of the FF sentiment. ABOUT SENTIMENT AND ANALYSIS The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll is taken each Friday from a generally static pool of experienced technical analysts (both private and professional). The Fearless Forecaster Sentiment is not normally a good fade, though there are times when it can be. The Fearless Forecaster sentiment data is useful on the short term; the Fearless Forecasters tend to be right. Typically they are right sooner rather than later, if there's a large plurality. On the flip side of the equation, if 90% or more are Bullish or Bearish, the odds of them being right over the very short term are huge, but the odds of a major turn (in the opposite direction) soon thereafter are also quite good. We have also found that when the Fearless Forecasters are evenly split, look for a BIG move in either direction, but usually down. Over the years, we have found a number of other tools to help in evaluating the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment. We publish this in our weekly "Institutional Sentiment & Analysis" (a part of our institutional research). These additional tools are our "Smart Money" poll, and our Senticator. Both are proprietary polls run by us. We have found that the Senticator tends to be right by the end of the week (as much as 87% of the time), though it tends to be more accurate in a rising market than a falling one. The "Smart Money" pollees are very useful when there is divergent opinion. It's generally NOT a good idea to fade the "Smart Money" unless "'EVERYONE'" (all sentiment measures) is in agreement. When in doubt about the meaning of the Fearless Forecaster Sentiment Poll, defer to the "Smart Money" poll. The "Smart Money" guys are folks with whom I've worked or whom I've watched for YEARS. They all have different approaches and they're all VERY good (not infallible, just good analysts/traders). http://www.decisionpoint.com/affiliate/0ffsi.GIF
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