NCAA Game

If you played this game in years before, welcome back! It's time for March
Madness! If you haven't played before, thanks for looking at this game, and
let me know if you have any questions. Some of you who haven't seen this
game before have played Steve Selbe's recent college football bowl game (as I
did); Steve plays my NCAA basketball game, and that's how I found your
addresses. Hope you're interested!

This is a private game, played among friends. Although almost all the
players win some money back, it is not guaranteed. You might lose everything
you invest, so be careful. This is for fun, not a way to get rich. I think
last year exactly half of the players made a profit, and all but one got some
money back. Please note that you can play with any amount from $1.01 to
$400. You are not disadvantaged by playing with a smaller amount (you would
just be risking less and either losing or winning proportionately less. The
odds of winning are exactly the same for all players). You are free to play
at the dollar level that is comfortable for you. Please also note that both
the Part I game and the Part II game are mandatory; you must play both.

If you want to play, please detach and print out the attached game form, then
fill it in and get it to me by the deadline. Keep a copy. Your money (and a
SASE --self-addressed, stamped envelope-- if you are not in Portland or with
EBS in Houston) must quickly follow. This is the honor system and we've
never had a problem. If you live near others who are playing, and you're not
in Portland or Enron/Houston, you can band together and send in only one
SASE, and indicate on your game form the person to whom I should send your
future winnings; I will then send your winnings to that named recipient in
his or her SASE, and that person will be responsible for forwarding your
winnings check to you.

Some minor changes for this year: You can choose either one or two teams in
the Part I game, to increase your chances of picking the winner. If you only
want to choose one Part I team, as in the past, that is fine. In the Part II
game, the costs per share for each seed have been slightly revised; they are
chosen by laying a smooth curve through the historical results for each seed,
over the past ten years. Otherwise, the game is about the same. Although it
was an attractive idea, I decided against a small pot for the Elite Eight;
there is too much additional calculation involved, and it breaks up my normal
cycle of playing two games and determining the winners at that level.

Speaking of historical results, here are some facts you might want to
consider: Last year, two 8 seeds, a 5 seed, and a 1st seed made it to the
Final Four (usually, there is more than one 1st seed that makes it, although
all four 1st seeds have never made it that far as a group). It is very
unusual for an 8 seed to knock off a 1st seed. A 16 seed has never won a
game, and, while a couple of 15 seeds have knocked off a 2 seed, I don't
think any 15 seed has won the second game and made it into the Sweet
Sixteen. 34 out of the 40 First seeds in the past ten years have made it to
the Sweet Sixteen; 18 of them made it to the Final Four, and 7 of them won
the tournament.

Good luck!

Kenton Erwin
w: 503-886-0261