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----- Forwarded by Stanley K Horton/HOU/Dynegy on 01/23/02 08:46 AM ----- Alexandra Fasoli <AFASOLI@ECM.RJF. To: com< cc: Subject: Raymond James Energy Daily Update (Wednesday 01/23/02) 01/23/02 08:07 AM Wednesday 01/23/02 Raymond James Energy Daily Update FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Energy Price Summary (Close Tuesday 01/22/02): Oil (WTI) - $18.98, up $0.98 Natural Gas (HHUB) -$2.11, down $0.13 1% Residual Oil (on a Mcf basis) - $2.72, unchanged London Crude Oil - $19.04, up $0.29 (so far this morning) 1) The AGA will issue its weekly storage report at 2pm today. * We are expecting a withdrawal of 150-160 Bcf, which would show 7-8 Bcf/d less gas available for storage compared to last year. * The Street's expectations are for a 135-140 withdrawal. OILSERVICE 2) Newpark (NYSE: NR) Confirms Earnings Guidance * NR indicated that it expects to report earnings of approximately $0.05 per share for the fourth quarter when it reports its results on Feb. 26th. This pre-release is basically in-line with the consensus estimate of $0.06 per share. * NR also confirmed that it is comfortable with the consensus estimates for fiscal 2002, which are currently around $0.30 per share. * Additionally, NR announced they have received a final commitment for the renewal of their $100 million bank credit facility provided by a bank syndicate led by Bank One. The facility will be expiring in early 2005 on terms in line with the current agreement (2% over LIBOR). Borrowings under the credit facility were below $40 million at year-end compared to $83 million a year earlier. * NR will announce earnings after the close on February 26th and host a conference call at 10am (EST) on February 27th. 3) BJ Clean Up In the First Quarter * BJ Services (NYSE:BJS/$25.81/Strong Buy) reported fiscal first quarter earnings of $0.42 per share (excluding goodwill amortization), compared with $0.38 per share last year. This result was a penny above the consensus estimate and $0.03 per share above our estimate. * Revenues for the quarter came in at $510.1 million, down 17% sequentially and up 4% over the prior year. Operating margins of 20.6% were down roughly 4,500 basis points from the prior quarter and roughly flat from a year ago. * A 20% sequential decline in U.S. revenues is impressive, given the 19% decline in the U.S. rig count, combined with a 5% deterioration in pricing. Additionally, international revenues were down only 12%, no thanks to the slow start to the winter season in Canada. * Looking forward, the recent start-up of a new stimulation vessel, combined with seasonally improved Canadian activity and flat to up international activity, should help to partially offset the near-term expected weakness in the U.S. Likewise, continued growth in the coiled tubing business should drive further improvements in 2002. * Furthermore, BJ's share repurchase program continues to add accretion to our estimates. This factor, combined with the implementation of FASB 142 (no amortization of goodwill), is now included in our estimates. * Following the quarterly report, and factoring in the aforementioned issues, we are shaving a nickel off of our FY2002 estimate, which goes from $1.35 to $1.30 per share. This falls toward the low end of the company's revised guidance range of $1.25 to $1.40 per share. Additionally, we are raising our FY2003 EPS estimate from $1.95 to $2.00, mainly to reflect the lack of goodwill amortization. We are reiterating our Strong Buy rating and 12-month target price of $37.00 per share (based on a blended average of valuation techniques applied to our 2003 estimates). 4) Trico's (NASDAQ:TMAR/$5.97/Strong Buy) Business Remains "Afloat" * In-line with nearly all levels of oilfield activity, the supply boat business has clearly deteriorated from where it was just six months ago. That being said, it has not fallen apart nearly as rapidly or to the magnitude we originally thought. * Industry consolidation, better balance sheets and price rationality has buoyed supply boat dayrates in the Gulf of Mexico much better than we have ever witnessed in the past. * This, combined with what appears to be a solid North Sea market is likely to cause our earnings forecast for Trico to be overly conservative. Furthermore, at today's price, TMAR is trading for well below asset and book value. * With an improving overall outlook for oilfield service stocks on the horizon, TMAR appears to present a great opportunity for investors over the long haul. Raymond James Energy Group This was prepared for informational purposes only and intended for internal use only. Information contained in this report was received from sources believed to be reliable. Raymond James & Associates assumes no liability for inaccurate or erroneous information. Additional information can be obtained by calling the Houston Energy office at (800) 945-6275. (See attached file: C.DTF)
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