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----- Forwarded by Stanley K Horton/HOU/Dynegy on 04/29/02 04:09 PM ----- RJ EnergyGroup <RJEnergygroup@ec To: "'RJ Customer'" <rj@rjf.com< m.rjf.com< cc: Subject: U.S. Natural Gas Supply is Falling Faster Than Even We Thought 04/29/02 09:08 AM <<iEne042902b_0713.pdf<< Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 4/29/2002. Over the past six months we have been very bullish on U.S. energy stocks based upon our conviction that U.S. natural gas supply would deteriorate sharply with the reduced drilling activity. As publicly-traded U.S. E&P companies have begun to announce their first quarter production results, the supply deterioration has been shocking even to us. Specifically, with about one-third of total U.S. gas production represented, it appears that first quarter 2002 U.S. gas production is trending down about 3% sequentially and more than 6% on a year-over-year basis. As we move into the second quarter, we think we will continue to see sequential declines in U.S. gas production and a growing year-over-year gap in U.S. gas production. Since a supply problem is much harder to correct than a demand problem, it appears that our optimism on U.S. gas prices has not only been well founded, but may even prove to be too conservative. In other words, this falling U.S. natural gas supply is an extremely bullish data point for U.S. gas prices as we move into the summer and especially going into next winter. The attached file is in the Adobe Acrobat *.PDF format. If you do not have the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat Reader, you can download it free from http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html#reader. If you should experience problems with this email, please contact Datra Roter, droter@ecm.rjf.com. If you have further questions, please contact any of the following members of the Raymond James Energy Team at 800-945-6275 (Houston). Research Team Oilfield Service E&P Calgary Energy Marshall Adkins Wayne Andrews Ken Faircloth John Tasdemir Jeff Mobley Gordon Gee Jim Rollyson John Tysseland Roger Serin Matthew Burrus Jeff Stultz Andrew Bradford John Freeman James Mullins Grant Daunheimer Angela Guo Fixed Income Jon Kyle Cartwright (Florida Office) 727-573-8366 Investment Banking Team Houston Dallas Calgary Howard House Allen Lassiter Naveen Dargan Steve Grant Mark Huhndorff Ed Bereznicki Ron Montalbano Scott McNeil Jason Holtby Michael Ames Wes Martin David McGorman John Sterling Kevin Palma Igor Falaleyev Gig Hordes Caroline Troy Vikram Singh Kevin Smith Office Locations Houston Dallas 5847 San Felipe, Suite 720 2001 Ross Avenue, Suite 3500 Houston, TX 77057 Dallas, TX 75201 (800) 945-6275 FAX (713) 789-3581 (800) 393-1314 FAX (214) 720-1315 (713) 789-3551 FAX (713) 266-4117 Calgary St. Petersburg Suite 2500, 707 8(superscript: th) Ave. SW 880 Carillon Parkway, Tower III Calgary AB T2P 1H5 St. Petersburg, FL 33716 888-477-6451 High Grade Trading 800-248-8863 ext. 8336 403-509-0536 High Yield Trading 800-448-6623 Fixed Income Research (727) 573-8366 (See attached file: iEne042902b_0713.pdf)
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