RE: Curve Changes

Let's go tonight. I have a staff mtg. at 4:00 pm and we can go after that.

Does this work for you?

-----Original Message-----
From: Herndon, Rogers
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 6:23 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

Tomorrow night could work - doing an analyst and associate recruiting dinner on Thurs. Let me know.

-----Original Message-----
From: Presto, Kevin M.
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 6:20 PM
To: Herndon, Rogers
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

Probably Wayne Herndon. We need to lock him down ASAP. You and I need to have a beer this week to discuss ENE in general and what you want to do next.

-----Original Message-----
From: Herndon, Rogers
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 6:16 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

Also, I am concerned that Narsimha may have someone from the outside trying to recruit him. I am pressing him on the contract and he is telling me everything's ok - lawyer reviewing, etc. I am going to give him another day or so and then just call him on it. I think there is better money out there, even in this market and do not want to lose him. Honestly, Joe, Juan and Narsimha are the only commodity guys I can count on to do what is right - amazing. You may want to ask Narsimha about the contract if you see him.

Rogers

-----Original Message-----
From: Presto, Kevin M.
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 6:05 PM
To: Herndon, Rogers
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

I agree with this approach and I'm fine with this allocation. My objective is to get everything as accurate as possible so the proper price signal is being sent to retail and wholesale origination. I caught the scalar issue when we were looking at 4 hour tolls vs. 8 hour tolls vs. 16 hour and I could tell there was a disconnect.

thanks.

-----Original Message-----
From: Herndon, Rogers
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 6:02 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

I think it is appropriate to instruct Risk to put the charges associated with the PJM scalar in the Change Deal Bucket as this was out of the Retail Commodity Group's control. I am trying to hold these guys accountable for positions, p/l and such and I think this is the only way to fairly account for results that they could affect vs. someone else's error/mismark. Let me know if you think this is appropriate.

-----Original Message-----
From: Presto, Kevin M.
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 4:51 PM
To: Herndon, Rogers
Subject: RE: Curve Changes

I have sent the message again to make curves as accurate as possible through 2015. We are doing are best. The Entergy situation was simply a back office mistake. The NY off-peak is a work in progress and will get better every day. The legs never trade, only the cals, therefore, we have to use common sense for month values.

Thanks for the info. In most cases, Narsima is exactly right.

-----Original Message-----
From: Herndon, Rogers
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 3:19 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: FW: Curve Changes

FYI.

-----Original Message-----
From: Misra, Narsimha
Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2001 3:10 PM
To: Herndon, Rogers
Subject: Curve Changes

Here are the significant (non market related) curve changes that have effected our P&L in the last week...and also a working issue related with curve management.

PJM East Hub:
Summary : Hourly Scalars for East hub were changed, resulting in a ($2.3 million) loss.
Reasons : Rob Benson had changed the West hub scalars a few months ago and those scalar changes never got transfered over to the East Hub curves. When the curve management function was moved from excel into the Enpower Curve Management system all the curves derived as a basis off West Hub curves started using the West Hub Scalars.

Entergy Back End:
Summary : Yesterday, Entergy 05 and beyond curves moved down in the range of $0.50/MWh to $1.65/MWh resulting in a loss of approximately $2.3million (held back because Mike Carson is fixing the curves today)

NY Curves:
Summary : The onpeak and offpeak curves for NY Zones A, G and J require a thorough clean up especially with regards to the issues that are stated below. The P&L is still to be determined because curves have not been changed.

On Peak
1. J-G Spread is marked over G-A Spread starting in Year 2009.
2. J-A Spread blows up year on year, starting in Year 2005.

Offpeak
1. Zone-G is marked above Zone-J half of the time; occuring mostly in Q1, Q4 and Aug.
2. Zone-A is marked above Zone-J every July in 2003-2006. With the exception of 2002, for the month of July, Zone-A is marginally marked below Zone-J.
3. Zone-A is marked above Zone-G for every July from 2003 to 2018 and Dec 2003.
4. Zone-A, for every year, MarApr is over MayJun by a significant amount.