RE: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved

Only if nuclear fuel storage problems persist. The nuclear fleet, if unencumbered by NRC or spent fuel storage problems, will operate at 90-95% (95% during non-refueling years and 90% during re-fueling years).

Remember re-fuelings are now on a 24 month cycle and the next big cycle is spring and fall of 2003. The 2002 re-fueling outages are actually less than normal.

-----Original Message-----
From: Arnold, John
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:32 PM
To: Presto, Kevin M.
Subject: RE: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved

do you agree with his numbers?

-----Original Message-----
From: Presto, Kevin M.
Sent: Mon 8/6/2001 6:24 PM
To: Arnold, John
Cc:
Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved

FYI.

-----Original Message-----
From: Miller, Don
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 11:03 AM
To: Presto, Kevin M.; Robinson, Mitch; Duran, W. David
Subject: FW: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved

FYI

-----Original Message-----
From: Jon Cartwright [ <mailto:JCartwright@FI.RJF.com<]
Sent: Monday, August 06, 2001 9:52 AM
To: RJF Energy-Gram (E-mail)
Subject: ENERGY: Nuclear Mystery Close To Being Solved

< <<IENER080601BSOW.PDF<<
<
< Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 08/06/01.
<
< Nuclear power production is about to reach a peak and then drop off
< dramatically through the course of 2002. Record levels of nuclear power
< production have offset the need for gas-fired electric production to the
< tune of an estimated 1.5 to 2.5 bcf/d over the past six months and should
< peak at about 3.5 bcf/d late this fall. However, nuclear power fleet
< utilization is expected to drop to under 91% heading into summer 2002,
< down from a historic high of nearly 97% this past summer. What does this
< mean to gas demand for the balance of 2002? Based on our work, we see the
< Y-O-Y return of between 1.0 to 1.5 bcf/day of natural gas demand when
< nuclear production hits the production cliff next spring. While we have
< generally been cautious short term on gas prices the past few months, we
< have begun to identify or fill in some portion of the gas demand quotient
< for next summer. Unlike this summer, next year is shaping up to be a far
< more bullish year for gas, based on the need for gas-fired electric
< production to pick up the slack.
<
<
< The attached file is in the Adobe Acrobat *.PDF format. If you do not have
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