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We are in jail in off-peak as well and are trying to buy. Most regions have markets on-line through 2003 (TVA, Ent, Cinergy, Com-ed). In NY, there is zero liqidity for off-peak. PJM West has pretty decent liquidity through 03.
I hope this helps. -----Original Message----- From: Herndon, Rogers Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 8:39 AM To: Presto, Kevin M. Subject: FW: Request for Information/Status Report Kevin - If I could see some off-peak markets I would be buying. Unfortunately, I know info like this will just be used against me and the positions I am fighting. Looks like we should be on the bid for some of these coal terminals from the producers. RH -----Original Message----- From: "Allan Stewart" <astewart@pira.com<@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Allan+20Stewart+22+20+3Castewart+40pira+2Ecom+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2001 6:09 AM To: Pradhan, Salil Cc: Herndon, Rogers Subject: RE: Request for Information/Status Report I have spent more time down that black hole called coal and have gotten even more bullish than I was when we spoke last. I wanted to give you some initial reactions, and hope that you will call to discuss your reaactions to my reactions (if that make sense to you). In looking at the MSHA data under a finer and finer slice, I was somewhat surprised to see the purging of employees in NAPP and CAPP. I have also been making the rounds in the major NAPP and CAPP basins to gauge the level of new activity, but it is surprising how sluggish the rebound is and will be. One could write that off to new problems with permitting (intermittent streams has become a real problem I am told) and/or to hiring problems while fighting off the coal unions some more. The other theory is that this oligopology that has gotten its sea legs! I am leaning towards a theory that the latter will use the former for cover. Given how bad EIA is, that cover could last a while. This market is ripe for a squeezing IF gas tightens a bit and net exports is somewhat inelastic at these levels! Further, it appears clear that aside from being horrible at managing data and the needs of the public, EIA is incompetent at analysis. I do not think we built inventory during 1Q01; it was mostly stocks (producer/distributor) moving to market. I now understand why you were focusing upon my gas substitution comments. The other area of opportunity is EXIM. No doubt you have continued to see the drift in international freight and coal prices. How low can it go (EXIM) - we are in unchartered territory! I know Hill & Associates think that the US can become an importer over the longer pull. The problem is the offloading at terminals (what you load, you can't necessarily offload) and whose terminals they are. Look at the ownership of the major terminals and you find coal producers. I have told our gas guys that I am growing more confident that gas will gain ground from coal this time around for the structural reaons I gave you plus the fundamental reasons as well. If today's AGA is bullish again, this could be the makings of an interesting market op. Regards, Allan Stewart astewart@pira.com 212-686-6808 -----Original Message----- From: Pradhan, Salil [mailto:salil.pradhan@ENRON.com] Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2001 11:01 AM To: astewart@pira.com Subject: FW: Request for Information Hello Allan: Thanks for the conversation yesterday. I look forward to hearing from you, and the information you mentioned you will send my way. Thanks a lot. Cheers, Salil. < -----Original Message----- < From: Pradhan, Salil < Sent: Wednesday, August 08, 2001 1:49 PM < To: 'astewart@pira.com' < Cc: 'jsteele@pira.com'; Fraser, Jennifer < Subject: Request for Information < < Hello Allan: < < I am Salil Pradhan and am with Enron's Coal and Emissions Trading < Group. Jen Fraser suggested I get in touch with you. She mentioned < that you made a presentation at Enron on Coal in the month of May and < wanted to get information on the correlation of natural gas prices < with coal. < < You had mentioned that in the northeast, natural gas could replace 5% < of the base load from coal once coal prices had catch up with gas < prices. Can you please send me any supporting analysis and < information. Also, please let me know if you need more clarification < or have any other questions. < < Best Regards, < < Salil Pradhan. < 713-870-8217. < < ********************************************************************** This e-mail is the property of Enron Corp. and/or its relevant affiliate and may contain confidential and privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient (s). Any review, use, distribution or disclosure by others is strictly prohibited. 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