ERCOT load growth: Q12000 to Q12001

The actual mwh growth from Q12000 to Q1 2001 was 3.56% (59,426,845 mwh to
61,543,268 mwh). Through my calculations, which I will describe below, I
arrived at a weather-normalized growth of 4.28% (59,114,067 mwh to 61,646,157
mwh). While I would not say that load growth exactly matches my figure, I
feel confident that load growth in ERCOT was in the range of 3.5% to 4%, year
over year.

Methodology

To arrive at the 2000 typical loads, I estimated the model using two and one
half years of data (7/1/97 through 12/31/99) and inserted typical ERCOT
weather for the period of January 1 through March 31, 2000. I used the
resulting loads in my analysis for typical first quarter 2000 loads. The
amount of data I used to estimate the ERCOT model in this example is standard
for each of the load forecasting models I have developed (when that amount of
data is available).

To arrive at the 2001 typical loads, I estimated the model using two and one
half years of data (7/1/98 through 12/31/00) and inserted typical ERCOT
weather for the period of January 1 through March 31, 2001. I used the
resulting loads in my analysis for typical first quarter 2001 loads.

I then compared the results, which I have summarized above.

Let me know if you have any questions.