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ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE
ATTORNEY WORK PRODUCT

Here is where our analysis stands Sunday night:

Claimants Against Enron:

EWEB $19,982,000 [Note: Only for deliveries after 6/20/01.] [12
month spot market]
California Parties 200,000 [CDWR Only][2 year refund period]
Tacoma $2,500,000 [all periods][24x24 plus index deals]
Seattle City Light 79,494,349 [all periods][18 months spot market]
[Note: Seattle City Light uses only five "fair prices" $19.86,
23.18, 27.16, 66.47, 81.62]
Modesto Irrigation District $299,615.50

Evaluating these claimants using Enron DATA and CAISO 8/9/01 heat rates:
Physical Only All [Note: this is for
12/25-6/20]
EWEB 24x24 -199,344 -575,150
24-7 day -34,946 -54,303
7-31 days $3,851,579 -1,890,748
31-366 days 679,468 679,468

Tacoma 24x24 -1,131,790 -9,189,085
24-7 days -49,096 -4,317,095
7-31 days 126,844 126,844
31-366days 3,729,662 14,715,188

Seattle 24x24 1,172,831 875,204
24- 7days 689,353 320,750
7-31 days 23,249,605 25,081,446
31-366days 961,513 1,006,280

Modesto 24x24 190,051 190,051
24-7 days - -
7-31 days -8,084,920 -8,240,938
31-366days-1,154,850 -3,029,559

Observations: 24x24 is still our best picture for just these claimants.
Netting is still critical
Excluding bookouts lowers over all netting risk (lower
sales overall)
but hurts with Tacoma numbers. (We book out a lot
of
Tacoma purchases over the California reference
price.)
We will owe Seattle more if exclude bookouts. (We book
out
more Seattle sales than purchases.)

This is still fairly rough. I would not quote or distribute these numbers.
Thanks
Gary

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