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Enron Mail |
Here is a response from AGA to the Underground Storage Committee regarding the very low injection number reported two weeks ago.
I served on the AGA-USC when the report debuted and would be happy to share the USC's view should any of you be interested. -----Original Message----- From: Wilson, Garry D. Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2001 1:21 PM To: Bieniawski, Paul Subject: FW: AGA's Weekly Storage Report -- FYI -----Original Message----- From: "Denbow, Kimberly" <KDenbow@aga.org<@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-+22Denbow+2C+20Kimberly+22+20+3CKDenbow+40aga+2Eorg+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.com] Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2001 10:04 AM To: Goforth, Alex; Anton, Amanda; Theodos, Andrew F.; Stinson, Charles E.; Busch, David; Nightingale, David; Bender, Dennis J.; Matheson, Donald K.; Ostrovich, Edward; Metzger, Fred; Hill, G. Scott; Wilson, Garry D.; Keen, Gerald S.; Kelly, Glen; Royce, Gordon L.; Gettman, Greg; Welch, Greg; Theirl, Gregory; McCracken, Harold; Riley, Horace; Gatewood, Jack; Blasingame, James; Philo, James; Carlson, Jeff; Mohn, Jeryl L.; Chan, Joe; Wickens, John; Shelton, John D.; Deters, Joseph; Marusic, Joe; Benson, Karen G.; Sole, Karol A.; Keppel, Keith; Denbow, Kimberly; Lowe, Mark A.; Gredell, Mark; Fraser, Michael; Morley, Michael; Callahan, Patrick E.; Englehart, R. Alan; Harris, Ramon; Frear, Ray; Beard, Robert; Glosier, Robert A.; Nowaczewski, Stephen; Foh, Stephen; Bergin, Stephen R.; Jacobs, Stephen (Steve) R.; Kline, Steven L.; Symon, Terry; Kronas, Theodore; Puracchio, Thomas; Steinbauer, Thomas; Uding, William Cc: McGill, Chris; Traweek, Lori Subject: AGA's Weekly Storage Report -- FYI Hello, everyone! I hope that you had a fine holiday weekend! Mine was great!! Several committee members have expressed an interest in learning more about the events that lead to and resulted from the unexpected working gas storage number reported a few weeks ago in the AGA American Gas Storage Survey. At the committee's request, the following is a brief message from Chris McGill, managing director of policy analysis, regarding this activity. Please review the material below and attached. By the end of this week or early next week, I will forward to you the summary referenced in the final paragraph below for your comments and/or concerns. Thank you. Have an awesome day! -----Original Message----- From: McGill, Chris Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2001 10:23 AM To: Denbow, Kimberly Cc: Wilkinson, Paul; Shin, David; Pierson, Paul Subject: To: AGA Underground Storage Committee Members: Thank you for the opportunity to provide an update on the recent activities of AGA's American Gas Storage Survey (AGSS). Certainly, the voluntary survey and resulting estimates of working gas in storage for the nation would not be possible without your help and support. There are three issues I would like to cover in this message, including the recent revision of working gas, an issue of continuing the reporting and current procedures and methods. Regarding the recent report and subsequent revision of working gas in storage for the Consuming Region East, please know that we continue to follow our procedures for data collection, verification and distribution. Several weeks ago, we flagged several survey submittals that seemed different from traditional patterns in the eastern region for this time of year. Follow-up to the submittals was set in motion, however, were not fully resolved until days after the Wednesday posting period. It is our policy to consider eliminating certain data submittals, if questions arise about the validity of the data. In this case, inclusion of the data or elimination of the data from the computational spreadsheets did not change the fact that a very low net build would be reported for the nation. Because of that we opted to go forward with our estimates and continue to pursue our verification efforts. Simply put, we don't make up numbers for companies when we have an actual report in hand just to create a final estimate of working gas changes that fits more closely with market expectations. What turned out to be a clerical error in the data reported to us was discovered and a revised survey submitted. Our revision of the estimates of working gas in storage for the eastern region and the total US came one week later at our normal reporting period, as is our stated policy for distributing revisions to the public. The fact is that we have revised our data about 25 times in the past 7.5 years (or about 400 weekly reports). Our accuracy can be clearly documented by comparing the AGSS estimates to that of EIA. The attached slides do just that, as well as show the current level of working gas compared to the prior five-year average. What seems to have developed in the natural gas market, particularly among traders, is a lack of tolerance between what we report and what the market expects. In order to continue our reach for consistency, we are reviewing our methods and procedures to ensure that they continue to reflect the best practices of completing a report such as the weekly estimates of working gas. Our evolving methods and procedures issue brief is attached. Any comments you have on the stated procedures or regarding this memorandum, in general, can be directed to me. Finally, the issue of whether we continue to report the estimates of working gas publicly remains one to be considered by the AGA Board of Directors. Like all projects at AGA, the AGSS come under periodic scrutiny for its value to the members and to the gas market in general. However, like many real-time information sources, the sequential data set has become sensitive over time. Please be alerted to the fact that a summary is being prepared by AGA for presentation to board members on this issue. It is our intention to copy the Underground Storage Committee on the documentation that is distributed. It seems likely that if AGA discontinues the weekly reporting of working gas that some other entity (federal or otherwise) will pick it up. Again, if you have comments on this memorandum, the attachments to this memo or the AGSS summary to be presented to the AGA Board (not attached but expected to be copied to you soon) please make them to me or to the appropriate person at your company. I appreciate your attention to this matter. Your support of the American Gas Storage Survey is gratefully acknowledged. Christopher B. McGill Manager Director, Policy Analysis American Gas Association 400 N. Capitol St. NW, 4th Floor Washington DC 20001 Tel: 202-824-7132 Fax: 202-824-7087 <http://www.aga.org/<; http://www.aga.org - Current Storage.ppt - IB2001StorageProcedures.doc
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