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Enron Mail |
Please take dave botchlett off the distribution. he is no longer with the
company. Enron North America Corp. From: Clayton Seigle 01/21/2001 08:34 PM To: Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Don Schroeder/HOU/ECT@ECT, David J Botchlett/HOU/ECT@ECT, Bill White/NA/Enron@Enron, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: Scott Tholan/Corp/Enron@Enron, Robert Johnston/HOU/ECT@ECT Subject: OPEC/Iraq Update NOTICE: CABC reports contain sensitive information and are not for general distribution The Saudi oil minister is now saying that if Iraqi export volumes do not return to normal (as assumed in the recent OPEC production cut), OPEC might actually increase output at the March meeting. This seems to reflect fresh doubts about Iraq's speedy return to the market. Despite reports that loadings are resuming at Ceyhan, our sources believe that Iraqi export volumes are likely to remain below normal levels. These sources assess that Iraq is continuing to insist on the surcharges. Some companies will steer clear of any Iraqi oil; others will try to find a way to resume exports without being accused of paying a surcharge. In any case, it will be difficult for Iraq to ramp up to 2 mb/d by Feb 1 as projected by a SOMO official at the OPEC meeting last week. Bayoil has reportedly signalled that Iraqi exports are likely to resume normal levels by the end of the month. However, sources advise that Bayoil is considered to be an unconventional player compared to the traditional major lifters of Iraqi crude, and it is an especially aggressive buyer of Iraqi oil. It may be willing to do business with Iraq sooner than the more established players. Therefore, it might be incorrect to assume that firms are ramping up Iraqi liftings across the board based solely on indications from Bayoil. Iraq averaged around 600,000 b/d in December. According to news reports, 13 mb of Basra Light and 4 mb of Kirkuk have been exported so far in January.
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