Re: mkt thoughs

thank you.

Jeff

Chris Mahoney
10/23/2000 11:43 AM
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Subject: mkt thoughs

we ran out of time in the meeting....my thoughts fwiw

short-term this market is going to continue to be sideways and choppy.
weather fundamentals don't exist and nothing else will be fundamentally
bullish or bearish enough to lead the market for the next several weeks.

Most people (including the majority of our shop) are getting bearish on the
back of the builds we should have based upon iea supply/demand predictions.
One concern here is that they have materialized yet over q3. If we look at
the poor reaction to bullish news last week
(api stats/unrest in the middle east) I think it is safe to say that the
sentiment in the market has turned bearish.
In general I want to go with the majority of the mkt but the rally that
resulted when the violence erupted in the middle east two weeks ago shows
the surprises will still be on the upside. the way that we gave back all
that ground reflects how little confidence there is in the mkt at the moment
that these fundamentals last too much longer. How many reports have you read
lately about borrowed heating oil demand? my back of the
evelope calculations suggest that although this is somewhat true it only true
for 150kbd in the winter vs an underlying demand of 4000kbd so
maybe not such a big disappointment to come.

we still like being bullish distillate in europe for the winter but think
that the mkt will be range bound on spreads and vs the complex until the need
for winter coats comes along.