Iraq/OPEC update 10-26-00

FYI
---------------------- Forwarded by Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT on 10/26/2000
12:29 PM ---------------------------

Enron North America Corp.

From: Clayton Seigle 10/26/2000 11:36 AM

To: John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Gary
Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, John J Lavorato/Corp/Enron@Enron
cc: Scott Tholan/Corp/Enron@Enron, Robert Johnston/HOU/ECT@ECT
Subject: Iraq/OPEC update 10-26-00

Confidential
Enron North America Competitive Analysis
& Business Controls

To: John Nowlan, Gary Hickerson, John Lavorato, Jeff Shankman
From: Robert Johnston, Clay Seigle
Date: October 26, 2000
Re: Iraq/OPEC Update

Sources assess that the US will not confront Iraq over its demand to switch
its oil transactions from dollars to euros, and therefore no major disruption
in Iraqi exports is expected on the November 1 deadline set by Iraq for the
switch. The worst-case scenario now seen is a very brief "hiccup" in exports
for a period of 1-3 days as the euro account is created and the letters of
credit are arranged for November liftings.

Sources report that Saudi Arabia has reconciled its internal differences and
now favors an OPEC production increase of 500,000 b/d according to the
"trigger mechanism." It is expected that the decision to increase output
will be announced on Friday October 27 or Monday October 30.