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Enron Mail |
FYI
----- Forwarded by Aleck Dadson/TOR/ECT on 06/15/2001 03:15 PM ----- Aleck Dadson 06/15/2001 03:05 PM To: Rob Milnthorp/ENRON@enronXgate@ENRON cc: Paul Devries/TOR/ECT@ECT Subject: RE: Lay/Harris Meeting Rob, just to reiterate one point Paul and I were trying to make on our conference call - We both think it would be a mistake to delete from the discussion with Harris et al our views regarding prices and resource adequacy. The biggest political fear of the gov't going forward is that consumers will see a big jump in prices once the market opens. For instance, that fear underlies the suggestion that market opening should await the return to service of the first Pickering A unit. - the idea (right or wrong) is that Pickering will provide greater reliability and price stability. The biggest fear of the government - based on our discussions with the politicians and their advisors - is the prospect of headlines in the Toronto Star et al about high prices in the IMO markets, whether or not a rebate is ultimately payable down the road. They saw the problems that high prices posed for Klein earlier this year and are fearful of being caught in the same position. The Harris gov't is far more vulnerable than Klein ever was. We are concerned that it is not an adequate answer to the gov't's political concerns to say that high prices will simply increase the cashflow to the government's own coffers (via OPG) to be redistributed at some later date to Ontario electricity consumers. Remember that, in any event, the MPMA rebate is calculated on the basis of annual revenues and that estimates are that consumers may not see an MPMA payout until six months after the end of the year. Our own extensive analysis and our own forward curves for Ontario indicate that significant price increases (compared to the new OPG bulk power rate of $48 MWh ) are unlikely. This is a reassuring assessment and we think it is important to share that view with gov't. We can't rely entirely on the existence of the mitigants; we have to address the underlying concern about price spikes and high prices. We think we have a good story to tell in that regard. Pleased to talk about this further. Aleck Rob Milnthorp/ENRON@enronXgate 06/15/2001 10:16 AM To: Aleck Dadson/TOR/ECT@ECT cc: Paul Devries/TOR/ECT@ECT Subject: RE: Lay/Harris Meeting Aleck/Paul - the attached looks good - much tighter message. -----Original Message----- From: Dadson, Aleck Sent: Friday, June 15, 2001 7:39 AM To: Milnthorp, Rob Cc: Devries, Paul Subject: Lay/Harris Meeting Made your changes to the draft . The EOL figures had come from EOL in Houston. Will have the Texas generation additions in MWs later today. Lindsey has sent the revised speaking points and agenda to John Lavorato/Kimberley Hillis. << File: Lay-Harris Agenda.doc << << File: Outline of speaking point clean - r.doc <<
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