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---------------------- Forwarded by Charles Yeung/HOU/ECT on 05/15/2001 09:08
AM --------------------------- "Julie Morgan" <Julie.Morgan@nerc.net< on 05/15/2001 08:13:47 AM To: "Gene Gorzelnik" <efg@nerc.com< cc: Subject: NERC Releases its 2001 Summer Reliability Assessment Ladies and Gentlemen: For Immediate Release: The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) released its 2001 Summer Assessment today. "The assessment concludes that California will experience difficulties meeting its projected electricity demand this summer," said Michehl R. Gent, NERC President and CEO, "and California electricity users will experience rotating blackouts, much more so than last summer or this winter." The report also states that extreme drought conditions throughout the Pacific Northwest will affect the available output of hydroelectric resources. "We expect that utilities in the Pacific Northwest will be able to serve all of their firm demands this summer," he added, "but they will not have electricity available to export to California and elsewhere." For your convenience, a copy of the press release announcing the 2001 Summer Assessment is shown below. In addition, this press release as well as the subject reports are available from the NERC web site www.nerc.com. If you have any questions, let me know. Sincerely, Julie Morgan ========================= Contacts: Ellen P. Vancko evancko@nerc.com or Eugene F. Gorzelnik efg@nerc.com May 15, 2001 NERC Releases its 2001 Summer Reliability Assessment The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) released its 2001 Summer Assessment today. "The assessment concludes that California will experience difficulties meeting its projected electricity demand this summer," said Michehl R. Gent, NERC President and CEO, "and California electricity users will experience rotating blackouts, much more so than last summer or this winter." The report also states that extreme drought conditions throughout the Pacific Northwest will affect the available output of hydroelectric resources. "We expect that utilities in the Pacific Northwest will be able to serve all of their firm demands this summer," he added, "but they will not have electricity available to export to California and elsewhere." In addition, the report cautions that New England, New York City, and Texas should be closely watched, despite having adequate resources to meet demand. New England and New York City are particularly sensitive to long-term heat waves and higher-than-expected generating unit forced outages. Texas will undergo a major shift in its operation in June when it opens up to full retail access and consolidates ten control area operations into one. The report concludes that generating capacity resources should be adequate to meet projected electricity demands in other areas of North America this summer. The assessment also points to concerns regarding north-to-south transmission transfer capability in the eastern portion of the United States, particularly east of the Mississippi River. The ability to transfer electricity from the north to the south in the Eastern Interconnection was severely tested last summer, spurred by cool temperatures in the north and hot temperatures in the south, as well as high fuel prices in the south. Early indications are that key transmission interfaces used to transfer electricity from north to south are already fully subscribed going into this summer, and that transmission congestion will again be prevalent in this area throughout the summer. As a supplement to its 2001 Summer Assessment report, NERC also published a 2001 Summer Special Assessment. This document is an in-depth, independent examination of the expected summer conditions in both California and the Pacific Northwest, and is based on interviews with experts from both the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP). NERC's CAISO assessment agrees with the overall conclusions of both the CAISO and the Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC) ? the CAISO will not have sufficient resources to meet expected demand this summer and involuntary curtailments of firm customer demand (rotating blackouts) are expected. NERC expects supply deficiencies to be greater than those expected by the CAISO. NERC anticipates that firm demand may be curtailed for about 260 hours over the course of this summer, with an average firm demand curtailment of about 2,150 MW. NERC expects that electric utilities in the NWPP will be able to serve all their firm electricity demands this summer. However, NWPP will not have the ability to export the amounts of electricity it traditionally has to California or elsewhere due to limited energy output from hydroelectric facilities resulting from one of the worst water years on record. The independent reports, prepared by NERC's Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, assess the projected demand and the resources available to meet that demand this summer, as well as transmission reliability issues. The reports are posted on NERC's web site at www.nerc.com. The web site also includes information on NERC and its transformation into NAERO, and the electric industry's electricity supply and delivery programs and activities. ********************* NERC is a not-for-profit company formed as a result of the Northeast blackout in 1965 to promote the reliability of the bulk electric systems that serve North America. It works with all segments of the electric industry as well as customers to "keep the lights on" by developing and encouraging compliance with rules for the reliable operation of these systems. NERC comprises ten Regional Reliability Councils that account for virtually all the electricity supplied in the United States, Canada, and a portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico.
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