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-----Original Message----- From: =09"Craig Casselberry" <craigc@infohiwy.net<@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES= -+22Craig+20Casselberry+22+20+3Ccraigc+40infohiwy+2Enet+3E+40ENRON@ENRON.co= m]=20 Sent:=09Thursday, October 04, 2001 6:17 PM To:=09Top List Subject:=09Texas re-districting - Impact on control of Congress UPDATE =20 Highlights: Congressman Bentsen forcibly retired; Congressmen Frost, Sandl= in, Turner, Granger, Stenholm face challenges =20 More... (and Washington Post article "Texas Democrats Suffer Setback " att= ached below) =20 Late yesterday Austin State District Judge Paul Davis, a Democrat, release= d his ruling in the Texas congressional redistricting case. The plan he d= elivered was an apparent surprising victory for Republicans, accomplishing= most of the objectives sought through their own proposals.=20 Initial observations: =20 * One of the two new seats is in the coastal bend region between Corpus C= hristi and Houston extending north toward the Austin area. The other is a= long the border between El Paso and Laredo -- Henry Bonilla's (R-San Anton= io) district has been drawn into the Hill Country and Central Texas. Lo= ok for former Texas Secretary of State, Henry Cuellar (who just resigned t= his week) to run in that district rather than challenge Bonilla as has been= speculated.=20 * Ken Bentsen (D-Houston) was drawn into Sheila Jackson-Lee's (D-Houston)= district. That's the only pairing. =20 * Gene Green (D-Houston) was drawn out of his district -- which becomes 6= 0% Hispanic -- and into a nearly 60% Republican district. =20 * Max Sandlin (D-Marshall) gets all of Tyler and Longview (Republican vot= es), Jim Turner (D-Carthage) gets Bryan/College Station (Republican votes)= and northwest Montgomery County (Republican votes), and Charles Stenholm = (D-Abilene) grabs the northwest and southwest corners of Tarrant County, p= utting all three in BIG trouble.=20 * Martin Frost's (D-Dallas) district becomes about 8-10 points more Repub= lican, making him vulnerable.=20 * Kay Granger's (R-Fort Worth) district becomes 4-6 points more Democrati= c, making her vulnerable.=20 The preliminary read is that if this plan stands up -- and it looks pretty= solid on voting-rights grounds -- Republicans will pick up at least two s= eats, and more likely somewhere between four and six. That would mean the= Texas delegation goes from 17-13 in the Democrat's favor to 18-20 GOP sea= ts of the 32 total (with 2 added this year) and makes it more likely the G= OP retains control of Congress in 2002. =20 Craig =20 ______ =20 Craig Casselberry Quorum Direct, Inc. Political Issue Communications for Business 816 Congress Avenue, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 (512) 480-2277 (P) (512) 480-2276 (F) =20 Texas Democrats Suffer Setback By Thomas B. Edsall Washington Post Staff Writer Thursday, October 4, 2001; Page A08 A Texas state judge has ordered new con= gressional districts to be drawn that would likely end the House career of= Democrat Ken Bentsen and would threaten the reelection of at least four o= ther Democrats: Charles W. Stenholm, Jim Turner, Max Sandlin and Chet Edwa= rds.The ruling is a devastating blow to the national Democratic goal of sta= ying even with the GOP in the congressional redistricting process and winn= ing control of the House next year. Republicans contend that the judicial = plan keeps them on track to pick up as many 10 seats nationwide."What real= ly hurt us in Texas is that a Democratic judge made the ruling," said a De= mocrat involved in the process. In private, aides to Rep. Martin Frost (D-= Tex.), the principal architect of his party's redistricting strategy in Tex= as and nationally, had said that the assignment of Judge Paul Davis to the= case increased the likelihood that Democrats would get a positive decisio= n.Yesterday, Frost issued a statment claiming confidence "that the Texas d= elegation's Democratic majority would be reelected under the map," but he a= lso made clear that there would be a legal challenge. "The map adopted tod= ay would divide several Hispanic and African American communities to dilut= e their voting strength in likely violation of the Voting Rights Act. . . = . It eviscerates many existing districts where minority communities elect = the candidates they choose to represent their interests."Democrats now fac= e the more daunting task of trying to persuade an East Texas federal court= to accept more pro-Democratic lines. Republicans contended that the Davis= map, which has priority in court proceedings, would conservatively produc= e at least three new GOP seats -- including the two new seats added to the = delegation because of the state's population increase in the 2000 census.T= he current Texas delegation has 17 Democrats and 13 Republicans. With the = addition of two new seats, Republicans contended that, after 2002, they wil= l have at least an even delegation, 16-16, and perhaps as much as an 18 to= 14 advantage, depending on a number of factors, including President Bush'= s popularity in November 2002.An aide to Bentsen acknowledged that "we got= the short straw on this one." Bentsen would be forced to run against fell= ow Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee, who is black, in an overwhelmingly minorit= y district. Bentsen may now give stronger consideration to running for the= Senate seat from which Phil Gramm (R) will be retiring.Stenholm, who has = been able to win in GOP-leaning counties, said he is prepared to run and w= in whatever the district lines are.While partisans on both sides expect the= majority of states' redistricting plans to end up in court, Republicans h= ave contended that they will emerge from the process with a net gain of ei= ght to 10 seats. Democrats have contended that the process will be a wash,= with neither party coming out ahead.Just last week, Democrats won what is = likely to be their biggest victory in the process, creating seven district= s in Georgia with Democratic voting histories of at least 55 percent. If t= he Democrats win those seats, their triumph will amount to a four-seat pic= kup.In most states, the battle involves just one seat at most; and in many = cases, the two parties are agreeing to protect incumbents with no change.T= he GOP controls the process in Michigan, where the party is likely to pick = up two seats. The GOP also controls the process in Pennsylvania, Ohio and = Florida; and in each, Republicans hope to gain two or more seats. ? 2001The Washington Post Company http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2714-2001Oct3.html?referer= =3Demail =20 - icon_mail.gif=20 - icon_print.gif=20 - newspaper.gif=20 - Texas Democrats Suffer Setback (washingtonpost.com).url
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