FW: Energy Market Report

Energy Market Report
Wednesday, January 16, 2002

*See attached pdf file.
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Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh)
January 16, 2002 for January 17 and 18, 2002

Peak(Heavy)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 20.00 0.00 22.75 1.25
Mid-Columbia 20.00 0.00 22.75 1.25
COB 23.75 0.75 25.25 1.75
N. California 26.75 1.75 30.50 2.50
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 28.00 3.00 30.00 2.75
Mead 27.75 2.75 30.00 3.00
Palo Verde 26.00 2.05 30.50 3.00
Inland SW 26.00 2.05 30.50 2.75
4-Corners 26.00 2.00 29.00 3.00
Central Rockies 26.00 6.25 27.50 3.50
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Off-Peak(Light)
Low Change High Change
NW/N. Rockies 17.00 0.75 17.75 0.25
Mid-Columbia 17.00 0.75 17.75 0.25
COB 17.50 0.25 18.00 0.50
N. California 19.00 1.75 19.50 -0.50
Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA
S. California 18.00 1.25 19.75 0.25
Mead 18.00 0.00 19.50 0.50
Palo Verde 16.00 0.00 19.50 1.25
Inland SW 16.00 0.00 19.50 0.50
4-Corners 16.25 0.25 17.50 0.50
Central Rockies 15.75 1.25 17.50 1.50
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From ENE to ENRNQ to EBAY

Heavy load electricity prices in the Western U.S. continued their recent
rise amid ongoing below-normal temperatures and curtailed generation. Some
parties also believed that stronger spot gas prices played a role in
strengthening up the Thursday/Friday package. "The curtailment at Diablo
Canyon caused a chain reaction of higher prices around the West today. We
have below-normal temperatures everywhere, and California is having to
import lots of power from outside the state," said one marketer. In fact,
there was some talk that reserves in the Golden State could fall below
acceptable levels Wednesday evening, possibly leading to the first emergency
declaration since July 3, 2001. NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures ended higher on
Wednesday, but displayed little reaction to the late release of the AGA
weekly storage report. February gained 10.3 cents to close at 2.394$/mmBtu,
while March ended 9 cents higher at 2.363$/mmBtu. The AGA inventory report
indicated that 137 bcf were pulled out of storage last week, right in line
with most industry estimates. Total U.S. inventories stood at 2.529 tcf,
1.070 tcf, or 73 percent, above last year and 529 bcf above the five-year
average. Of the 137 bcf drawn last week, only seven were taken out of the
Western Consuming Region, but recent cold weather had many players convinced
that next week's report would show a much larger draw in the West. In other
industry gossip, David Duncan, the lead Andersen partner in charge of the
Enron audit who was fired on Tuesday, met for several hours Wednesday with
lawyers and House of Energy and Commerce Committee staff. The House Energy
committee was also looking to interview Sherron Watkins, the Enron executive
who wrote the prophetic letter last summer to Ken Lay warning him of big
troubles with the company's accounting policies. Meanwhile, Enron shares
were trading on the Pink Sheets, an over-the-counter market in which
companies do not have to report financial performance. On Wednesday, Enron
stock, which now trades under the symbol "enrnq", fell 20 cents to close at
31 cents. Meanwhile, Enron stock certificates were selling for upwards of
$100 on Ebay due to their collectable value. Quite a paradox, eh?

Heavy load energy costs in the Northwest gained 1.25$/MWh on the high end,
largely due to cold temperatures locally, and reports of increased exports
to California. Peak power at the Mid-Columbia ranged from 20 to 22.75$/MWh,
with the bulk of trades between 21.25 and 21.5$/MWh. Flow forecasts for
Chief Joseph remained strong at 100 kcfs Thursday, 95 kcfs Friday, 65 kcfs
Saturday, 55 kcfs Sunday, 100 kcfs Monday, and 95 kcfs next Tuesday and
Wednesday. In unit news, Colstrip #3 and #4 (700 MW each) remained off
line, both with a revised ETR of January 20. Wyoming-based Naughton #3 (330
MW) also had its return date backed up until January 18. Weather forecasts
were calling for below-normal temperatures to continue through the weekend,
while the latest six-to-ten from the NWS was calling for below-normal
temperatures across the entire region from January 22 through 26.

Amid predictions of cold weather on Thursday, rumors of reserves falling
below WSCC required levels, and stronger natural gas values, electricity
prices for the Thursday/Friday package strengthened on Wednesday in the
Golden State. "Prices opened strong, but slid off some later. There was
some excitement over the cold weather and stronger loads, and talk that the
CAISO safety margin might not be met across the peak tonight. It's been a
while since we've seen emergency stages and out of market buying in
California," said one interested party. Heavy load trades at SP15 were
heard from 28 to 30$/MWh, while light loads goods were being exchanged
between 18 and 19.75$/MWh, with odd-lot products heard at 17 and 20.25$/MWh.
In political news, PG&E ran a full page ad in the major California papers on
Wednesday, accusing the state of filing suit to stop the utility's
reorganization process and staunchly defending their own business practices
as "ethical and fair". In unit news, Pittsburg #7 (682 MW) was down on
Wednesday, as was El Segundo #3 (337 MW). Alamitos #4 (320 MW) returned to
the grid. Temperatures were expected to dip just below freezing in the
capital and other mid-state interior load centers on Thursday. The Bay Area
and southern regions of the state were only expecting lows in the upper-30s
to mid-40s. Little change was forecast through Sunday, and the most current
six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 22 to 26.

Below-normal temperatures and increased demand from California helped to
boost day-ahead peak power prices in the Southwest by as much as 3$/MWh on
Wednesday. "They're [California] hurting for power today, and we've even
been asked to turn on some of our gas units to help get them through the
evening peak," said one Southwest utility trader. Peak power at Palo Verde
saw action from 26 to 30.5$/MWh, with most trades heard in the 28.5 to
29$/MWh range. Prices generally started on the low end, but quickly
ratcheted up as California players came out of the woodwork looking to
gobble up surplus supplies. The latest six-to-ten from the NWS was calling
for below-normal temperatures to continue from January 22 through 26.

Patrick O'Neill and Jessie Norris
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Western Generating Unit Outages

Current Begins Ends Reason
CAISO units <250/7461 total NA NA
planned/unplanned*
Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned
Colstrip #3/700/coal 11-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 repairs*
Colstrip #4/700/coal 15-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 tube leak*
Diablo Canyon #2/1087/nuclear 15-Jan-02 20-Jan-02 @50%,
maintenance
El Segundo #3/337/gas 16-Jan-02 ? unplanned*
Encina #4/303/gas 12-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Four Corners #5 09-Jan-02 14-Mar-02 maintenance
Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs
Haynes #6/341/gas 07-Jan-02 ? planned
Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned
Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @506 MW,
unplanned
Morro Bay #3/337/gas 04-Jan-02 ? planned
Moss Landing #6/739/gas 11-Jan-02 ? unplanned
Moss Landing #7/739/gas 29-Dec-01 ? planned
Naughton #3/330/gas 13-Jan-02 18-Jan-02 tube leak*
Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned
Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW,
unplanned
Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned
Pittsburg #7/682/gas 16-Jan-02 ? unplanned*
Redondo #8/480/gas 09-Dec-01 ? planned

For unit owners refer to pdf version.
*Indicates a change from previous EMR.
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Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh)

January 16, 2002 for January 17, 2002

Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh
Low Change High Change
Into Cinergy 19.35 1.60 22.00 3.25
Western PJM 23.10 0.30 23.60 0.55
Into Entergy 19.00 0.05 22.00 -0.35
Into TVA 20.00 0.00 22.25 0.75
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As stronger natural gas prices, unit curtailments, and winter weather made
their presence felt, day-ahead electricity prices settled slightly higher
across the Eastern Interconnect on Wednesday. While temperatures remained
cool, there was little change in the weather pattern since Tuesday, which
left traders perplexed about the source of Wednesday's strength,
particularly in the Midwest. The AGA's weekly storage report listed a
withdrawal of 137 bcf, dead on with industry estimates of 135 to 140 bcf.
The AGA had little influence on late trading, and NYMEX Henry Hub gas
futures rose on Wednesday. February gained 10.3 cents to close at
2.394$/mmBtu, while March rose 9 cents to end at 2.363$/mmBtu.

As imports dropped and rumors of output constraints on the PJM grid were
heard, peak power prices exhibited some tempered strength in the
Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Western PJM goods for Thursday delivery changed
hands between 23.1 and 23.6$/MWh. While sources were fairly certain that
the Salem and Keystone outages were finished, rumors circulated that a
different Pennsylvania unit was newly off-line on Wednesday, but no one was
certain exactly which one. After a promising early spike to 80 and a two
hour mid-morning plateau above 30, LMPs settled lower for the afternoon and
averaged 26.05$/MWh through 15:00 EST. High temperatures were expected in
the upper-40s on Thursday and lows were forecast in the mid-30s. Cooling of
about five degrees was expected through Sunday, and the most current
six-to-ten called for normal temperatures in the north of PJM and
above-normal temperatures in the south from January 22 to 26.

Amid official word of a big nuke off the grid and higher natural gas prices,
heavy load energy costs gained significant ground in the Midwest on
Wednesday. Into Cinergy day-ahead pieces were bought and sold from 19.35 to
22$/MWh, picking up over 3$/MWh on the high end. The February contract also
traded much higher, with deals heard between 20.9 to 21.45$/MWh, up almost a
dollar to a day ago. In unit news, Exelon confirmed the outage at their
Illinois Quad Cities #1 (821 MW) on Wednesday. The unit has been down since
January 9 for repairs to a pump in the reactor vessel. However, no ETR was
given. High temperatures were forecast to reach the mid-30s on Thursday,
with overnight lows in the mid-20s. The latest six-to-ten called for mostly
above-normal temperatures from January 22 to 26.

Peak power prices were steady to slightly higher in the Southeast on
Wednesday. Into Entergy trades were seen between 19 and 22$/MWh, slipping
towards the low end as the day progressed, while the front month contract
saw action mostly between 20.25 and 20.4$/MWh. Into TVA deals were done
between 20 and 22.25$/MWh. High temperatures were anticipated mostly in the
50s across SERC on Thursday, with little change expected through Sunday.
The most current six-to-ten called for above-normal temperatures from
January 22 to 26.
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California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh

Path Peak Off-peak
for 17-Jan-02 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00
NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00
LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00
SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00

OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh

Mid-C PV SP-15
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
BOM 19.75 20.75 25.00 26.00 25.50 26.50
February 19.50 21.00 23.50 24.50 24.75 25.75
March 17.00 18.50 23.00 24.00 24.25 25.25
April 17.50 19.00 24.00 25.00 NA NA
Q2 '02 17.50 19.00 26.00 27.00 25.75 26.75
Q3 '02 31.00 32.50 40.00 41.00 38.50 39.50
Q4 '02 NA NA 27.00 28.00 28.00 29.00
Q1 '03 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Cal '03 27.50 29.00 31.00 32.00 32.75 33.75

Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable
by the Energy Market Report.

Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh)

Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change
for 15-Jan-02 46.33 45.26 17.86 36.94 0.88

BPA's Offer for 01/19/02 and 01/20/02.

Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered
7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price*
1-6, 23-24 100MW Market Price* Market Price*

*Market price will be determined at time of request.

NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu

Close Change
Feb 2.394 0.103
Mar 2.363 0.090

Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu

Low High
Sumas 2.13 2.18
So. Cal Border 2.27 2.32
San Juan 2.15 2.20
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Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201,
Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com -
Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2002.