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Enron Mail |
Energy Market Report Friday, December 28, 2001 *See attached pdf file. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 28, 2001 for January 1, 2002 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA COB* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA N. California* 21.50 NA 25.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 20.50 NA 24.50 NA Mead* 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Palo Verde* 18.00 NA 22.00 NA Inland SW* 18.00 NA 24.25 NA 4-Corners* 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Central Rockies* 18.00 NA 23.00 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA Mid-Columbia* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA COB* 21.00 NA 24.00 NA N. California* 21.50 NA 25.00 NA Midway/Sylmar* NA NA NA NA S. California* 20.50 NA 24.50 NA Mead* 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Palo Verde* 18.00 NA 22.00 NA Inland SW* 18.00 NA 24.25 NA 4-Corners* 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Central Rockies* 18.00 NA 23.00 NA *Denotes trading of flat, 24-hour products. **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ Western Pre-Scheduled Firm Electricity Prices($/MWh) December 28, 2001 for January 2, 2002 Peak(Heavy) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 23.50 NA 27.00 NA Mid-Columbia 23.50 NA 27.00 NA COB 25.00 NA 27.50 NA N. California 26.75 NA 30.25 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 26.75 NA 30.75 NA Mead 27.00 NA 30.00 NA Palo Verde 26.00 NA 29.25 NA Inland SW 26.00 NA 30.00 NA 4-Corners 27.00 NA 28.00 NA Central Rockies 23.75 NA 24.25 NA __________________________________________________________ Off-Peak(Light) Low Change** High Change** NW/N. Rockies 21.00 NA 24.00 NA Mid-Columbia 21.00 NA 24.00 NA COB 21.00 NA 24.00 NA N. California 21.50 NA 25.00 NA Midway/Sylmar NA NA NA NA S. California 20.50 NA 24.50 NA Mead 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Palo Verde 18.00 NA 22.00 NA Inland SW 18.00 NA 24.25 NA 4-Corners 20.00 NA 24.25 NA Central Rockies 18.00 NA 23.00 NA **"NA" changes are not applicable because prices for on and off peak goods are not comparable to flat products. __________________________________________________________ Enron "Stock" (Certificates) Soars As power contracts moved into the New Year, marketers across the WSCC saw prices firm up, if only marginally. "We're still looking at some pretty mild weather forecasts, and precipitation and flows are still healthy," noted one Northwest player. Enron once again graced the wire agencies on Friday, as always garnering dubious honors. Collectors can now buy Enron stock certificates for up to $99 on eBay. That is almost $9 more than the actual stock sold for on its best day! Evidently, Enron's historic demise has placed its stock in the same Hall of Fame as stock certificates from Czarist Russia and from now-nonexistent countries, and is a sought-after commodity by collectors and enthusiasts. Meanwhile, abundant natural gas supplies have kept a lid on NYMEX Henry Hub futures prices. The February contract, trading for its first day in the front-month position, gained 15.5 cents over the day's trading, erasing half of Thursday's loss, to close at 2.774$/mmBtu. March followed hot on February's heels, rising 11.6 cents to settle at 2.746$/mmBtu. Peak power costs in the Northwest showed some strength in the new month on news of a large outage in the eastern reaches of the region, the five-day uncertainty, and forecasts for colder weather in the near future. Mid-Columbia peak goods traded from 23.5 to 27$/MWh, a gain of 3.75$/MWh on the high end and .75$/MWh on the low. Temperatures across the region ranged from firmly below freezing to the low 50s on Friday, but the five-day forecast called for colder weather on both sides of the Cascade Range through January 1. The latest six-to-ten predicted Northwest temperatures to stick just below normal from January 3 to 7. Forecasted flows at Chief Joseph remained healthy, but were revised slightly downward to 75 kcfs Saturday, 60 kcfs Sunday, 90 kcfs Monday, 55 kcfs Tuesday, 95 kcfs Wednesday and Thursday, and 90 kcfs next Friday. There was no news of unit outages in the Pacific Northwest on Friday, but East of the Rockies, in Montana, news that PPL Montana's Colstrip #4 (740 MW) had tripped off line late Thursday washed over the WSCC market. Both the cause and the ETR were kept close to the chest. Despite softer gas prices on key pipelines in the West, day-ahead electricity prices strengthened in the Golden State on Friday, with the inclusion of the first working day of 2002 in the two-day package boosting load forecasts. As two unit outages affected the SP15 grid, heavy load prices climbed almost 4$/MWh, trading between 26.75 and 30.75$/MWh. Light load goods changed hands between 20.5 and 24.5$/MWh. Spot gas at the Southern California border settled 9 cents lower on Friday from 2.43 to 2.48$/mmBtu. In hydro happenings, the DWR reported that data for last week shows the California snow pack already standing at 55% of expected April 1 levels. If the current precipitation trends continue the snow pack will be at 120% of the average, a welcome sign for all those watching generation at the northern hydros. In unit news, gas-fired Ormond Beach #1 (725 MW) was off-line on Friday for planned maintenance, while Alamitos #6 (480 MW) also tripped, but for unplanned reasons. The five-day forecast continued to show little change, as temperatures were expected to remain within 5 degrees of normal through Tuesday. Los Angeles forecasts called for highs in the mid-60s Monday and Tuesday, while mid-state load centers were expected to be about 10 degrees cooler. The most current six-to-ten predicted above-normal temperatures from January 3 to 7. With cold weather firmly entrenched across the Southwest and forecasts calling for greater cooling and even snow, peak power at Palo Verde firmed up about 3.25$/MWh on the high end for the first peak day of the New Year. Peak goods traded from 26 to 29.25$/MWh on Friday, up from the 25 to 26$/MWh seen on Thursday. "Sure it's kind of cold," admitted one seller, "but unless we get some big unit outages or a gas spike, we're not going to see much strength in the market any time soon." There were no unit outages to report in the Southwest on Friday. Daytime highs in the north were on the low side of freezing and expected to stay that way into next year, while temperatures in the south ranged from the high 30s to mid-60s, and were forecast to cool off as the New Year approaches. The latest six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures to grip the region from January 3 to 7. David Ramberg and Jessie Norris _________________________________________________________ Western Generating Unit Outages Current Begins Ends Reason CAISO units <250/6495 total NA NA planned/unplanned* Alamitos #3/320/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned Alamitos #4/320/gas 23-Dec-01 ? planned Alamitos #6/480/gas 28-Dec-01 ? unplanned* Big Creek Project/1020/hydro 09-Dec-01 ? @752MW, planned Colstrip #4/740/coal 27-Dec-01 ? unplanned* El Segundo #3/337/gas 02-Oct-01 ? unplanned Etiwanda #3/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Etiwanda #4/320/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Grand Coulee #19/600/hydro 10-Dec-01 March repairs Helms PGP #2/407/hydro 01-Oct-01 ? planned Hyatt/Thermalito/933/hydro 02-Oct-01 ? @607 MW, unplanned Los Medanos/550/gas 25-Dec-01 ? @125 MW, unplanned Morro Bay #4/336/gas 22-Dec-01 ? planned Ormond Beach #1/725/gas 28-Dec-01 ? planned* Ormond Beach #2/750/gas 05-Oct-01 ? @350 MW, unplanned Pittsburg #6/317/gas 22-Nov-01 ? planned Sutter Plants/546/gas 04-Dec-01 ? planned For unit owners refer to pdf version. *Indicates a change from previous EMR. ______________________________________________________________________ Eastern Markets Pre-Scheduled Firm Power Prices ($/MWh) December 28, 2001 for January 2, 2002 Peak (Heavy) in $/MWh Low Change High Change Into Cinergy 21.75 3.75 25.00 5.25 Western PJM 24.50 0.75 27.00 3.00 Into Entergy 23.50 2.00 25.00 2.00 Into TVA 19.90 1.40 20.10 0.85 ___________________________________________________________ With light demand for New Year's Eve expected to lead into the middle of the new week and colder temperatures on the horizon, peak power for Monday delivery edged down across the Eastern Interconnect in lackluster end of the week trading. Wednesday goods gained ground as higher load forecasts pushed early prices up. "We usually do 1500 MW of PJM dailies at least, but this short week between the holidays we've been lucky to do 100 MW each day. There just doesn't seem to be an active market out there," commented one Mid-Atlantic trader, adding that he was heading home early, a sentiment echoed by many in the East on Friday. To the relief of many gas watchers, NYMEX Henry Hub futures rebounded somewhat on Friday. February climbed 15.5 cents to close at 2.774$/mmBtu, while March gained 11.6 cents to end at 2.746$/mmBtu. Colder weather forecasts in the new week were balanced by light load expectations ahead of the holiday, which sent heavy load electricity prices down in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. "Trading was choppy today. I'd buy a piece, and the offer would disappear before I could pick up another," commented one PJM dealer. Western PJM goods for Monday delivery changed hands between 23.75 and 24$/MWh, while early deals for Wednesday delivery were heard between 24.5 and 27$/MWh. Traders thought the market for Wednesday would probably firm up on Monday. "Balance for next week looks promising. It's all that cold weather," said one market player. The Jan/Feb contract saw action between 30.1 and 30.5$/MWh on Friday. After jumping to 33$/MWh twice in the early afternoon, LMPs averaged 19.28$/MWh through 15:00 EST. Temperatures for the early part of the new week were expected to be nice and cold, with overnight lows in the 20 to 23 degree range. The latest six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 3 to 7. Spot electricity prices traded down for another day in the Midwest on Friday, despite an anticipated drop in the mercury for the new week. Into Cinergy deals for Monday were seen between 18 and 19.75$/MWh, losing another buck off the low end and almost two off the high. The Wednesday picture looked a little better, trading between 21.75 and 25$/MWh. Strangely the winter contract also lost ground on Friday, with transactions heard as low as 24.4$/MWh. Cold weather was expected to settle over the Midwest with a vengeance, with highs for Monday and Tuesday expected in the 17 to 25 degree range and lows in the frigid single digits. The most current six-to-ten predicted below-normal temperatures from January 3 to 7. Amid very slow trading and colder temperatures expected in the new week, peak power prices were flat to lower in the Southeast on Friday. Into Entergy pieces for Monday delivery were bought and sold from 21.5 to 23$/MWh, with the bulk of deals heard around 21.5 to 22$/MWh. Wednesday deals were tentatively heard between 23.5 and 25$/MWh. Into TVA transactions for New Year's Eve went through from 18.5 to 19.25$/MWh, while Wednesday saw action slightly higher from 19.9 to 20.1$/MWh. Overnight lows were expected in the mid-20s by Monday, with highs in the low-40s. The latest six-to-ten called for below-normal temperatures from January 3 to 7. ___________________________________________________________ California ISO Congestion Index in $/MWh Path Peak Off-peak for 29-Dec-01 NW1 to NP15 0.00 0.00 NW3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 AZ3 to SP15 0.00 0.00 LC1 to SP15 0.00 0.00 SP15 to NP15 0.00 0.00 OTC Forward Peak Electricity Contracts in $/MWh Mid-C PV SP-15 Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask BOM -- -- -- -- -- -- February 22.00 23.50 26.00 27.00 27.00 28.00 March 19.00 20.50 25.50 26.50 26.50 27.50 April 17.50 19.00 24.00 25.00 25.00 26.00 Q2 '02 17.00 18.50 28.00 29.00 28.00 29.00 Q3 '02 33.50 35.50 44.00 45.00 42.50 43.50 Q4 '02 28.50 30.00 28.75 29.75 31.00 32.00 Cal '03 30.75 32.25 34.00 35.00 35.00 36.00 Represents the most recent bid/ask spread obtainable by the Energy Market Report. Alberta Power Pool Index (C$/MWh) Peak(14) Peak(16) Off-Peak Flat Change for 27-Dec-01 46.26 45.03 22.00 38.02 17.04 BPA's Offer for 1/03/02. Hours Amount NW delivered COB/NOB delivered 7-22 100MW Market Price* Market Price* *Market price will be determined at time of request. NYMEX Henry Hub Gas Futures in $/mmBtu Close Change Feb 2.774 0.155 Mar 2.746 0.116 Natural Gas Spot Prices in $/mmBtu Low High Sumas 2.32 2.37 So. Cal Border 2.43 2.48 San Juan 2.30 2.35 __________________________________________________________ Economic Insight, Inc. - 3004 SW First, Portland, Oregon 97201, Telephone (503) 222-2425, Internet e-mail emr@econ.com - Copyright, Economic Insight, Inc. 2001.
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