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Enerfax Daily NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE Tuesday, February 5 2002 No. 927 Visit: http://www.enerfax.com to view our web version or for Oil Prices & News http://www.enerfaxgold.com PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES Gulf/Eastern Region | Agua Dulce | 2.04 | | ANR SE | 2.12 | | Carthage TG | 2.11 | | Chicago Citygate | 2.17 | | Columbia Gulf Onshore | 2.17 | | Dominion South Point | 2.37 | | Henry Hub | 2.18 | | Houston Ship Channel | 2.16 | | Katy Hub | 2.10 | | NGPL LA Pool | 2.12 | | NGPL - Midcontinent | 2.05 | | NGPL STX | 2.07 | | NGPL TX/OK | 2.09 | | NNG Demarc. | 2.12 | | Niagara | 2.41 | | Sonat Tier 1 | 2.13 | | TCO IPP Pool | 2.28 | | Tetco ELa | 2.13 | | Tetco M-3 | 2.64 | | Tetco STX | 2.07 | | TGP Zone 0 | 2.06 | | TGP Zone 1 (500 Leg) | 2.13 | | TGT Zone SL | 2.16 | | New York Citygate | 2.93 | | Transco Station 65 | 2.21 | | Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.92 | | Trunk ELa | 2.11 | | Western Region | California Border | 2.17 | | El Paso Keystone | 2.04 | | El Paso San Juan-Blanco | 2.05 | | Waha Hub | 2.06 | | Canadian/Rockies Region | Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 2.84 | | Dawn Hub/Union | 2.28 | | Northwest Stanfield | 2.00 | | Wyoming Pool | 1.90 | | Opal | 1.90 | | PGT-Malin | 2.09 | | Sumas | 1.97 | Flow Date 2/5 ------------------------------------------------------------- NATURAL GAS FUTURES Henry Hub 12 Month Strip 2.5016 -0.0140 18 Month Strip 2.6023 -0.0098 | Month | High | Low | Close | Change | | MAR | 2.150 | 2.080 | 2.117 | -0.021 | | APR | 2.215 | 2.150 | 2.184 | -0.014 | | MAY | 2.270 | 2.220 | 2.252 | -0.014 | | JUN | 2.330 | 2.296 | 2.317 | -0.014 | | JUL | 2.400 | 2.365 | 2.377 | -0.014 | | AUG | 2.450 | 2.420 | 2.432 | -0.014 | | SEP | 2.450 | 2.420 | 2.432 | -0.014 | | OCT | 2.475 | 2.440 | 2.459 | -0.011 | | NOV | 2.700 | 2.670 | 2.679 | -0.016 | | DEC | 2.900 | 2.870 | 2.879 | -0.015 | | JAN | 2.980 | 2.960 | 2.969 | -0.012 | | FEB | 2.930 | 2.910 | 2.922 | -0.009 | ------------------------------------------------------------- - RISK MANAGEMENT Across the Energy Enterprise e-Acumen, Inc., is uniquely positioned to help you manage risk and increase value. That's because our analytics, data and applications cover all strategic aspects of the energy enterprise, from short-term forecasting to comprehensive risk analysis and portfolio optimization, to asset valuation and weather risk management. Dedicated to the needs of energy and trading companies in a dynamic and competitive world, our approach combines best-in-class physical fundamentals with industry-leading statistical methodologies. e-Acumen is a venture-backed company founded in January, 1997. Since then we have listened attentively to the market and assembled a stellar cast of seasoned energy industry professionals and Silicon Valley technologists. Join us as we help the industry continue its path toward liquidity and profitable, risk-managed growth in the exciting years ahead! Click here to find out more about current special offers, or go to http://www.e-acumen.com ------------------------------------------------------------- Natural Gas Futures End Choppy Day Down Natural gas for March delivery on the NYMEX ended down $0.021 yesterday at $2.117 per MMBtu. The April contract slipped $0.014 to $2.184 per MMBtu. The market opened lower, but bounced off $2.08. However, it could not get higher than $2.15, and failed to trigger anticipated buy stops above $2.17. Every rally is hit with a wave of selling. Look for the market to open lower again this morning. The AGA reports last week's storage information tomorrow afternoon. Expect a withdrawal of about 120 Bcf - 130 Bcf. Last week, 111 Bcf was withdrawn leaving 2.294 Tcf in storage. The nation's storage facilities are still 70% full compared to 38% full a year ago. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and Canada was generally flat to plus or minus $0.05 yesterday. Physical prices jumped higher in the Northeast. Utilities reportedly nominated base-loads for every day for February, intending to use the spot market only as weather dictates. Cash prices held as much as $0.08 - $0.09 above the NYMEX. Natural gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub ended flat at $2.18 per MMBtu. ------------------------------------------------------------- Exploit the enterprise-wide transaction management power deployed by the big names in gas. NUCLEUS Software ZAINET Gasmaster The most comprehensive, totally-integrated natural gas information system available today. Ask about out limited-time offer competitive upgrade program. CAMINUS Your Competitive Edge in Energy. Call Caminus at (212)515-3700 or visit the website at http://www.caminus.com ------------------------------------------------------------- Today's Power Bulletins * Otter Tail Says 4th Quarter Operating Income Up 21% * AEP Hires Schroder Salomon Smith Barney and ABN Amro for UK and Australia Sales * PricewaterhouseCoopers Says Enron Europe Has Billions of Dollars of Liabilities * JP Morgan Chase Advises Investors to 'Ooverweight' Calpine Bonds * AFL-CIO Asks SEC to Bar Enron Directors from Boards * Chairman of Russian Giant Unified Energy Systems Seeks Linking Grid with Europe * Sempra Energy Trading Completes Acquisition of Enron Metals Limited for $145 Million in Cash * Bush Administration Proposes 19% Increase in Spending for Salmon Recovery in the Northwest * Alliant Energy Resources Completes Exchange Offer for $300 Million of 7% Senior Notes Due 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------- DO YOU JUST SEE TREES? WE SEE A FOREST! See the forest with NewEnergy MarketPower by efficiently obtaining information for critical market-based investment decisions and mitigate your risk. Use MarketPower to determine the effects of transmission congestion, fuel costs, generator availability and load growth on market prices to better execute your company's strategic direction. Designed specifically for today's energy industry, MarketPower is accurate and easy-to-use, so you can plan for tomorrow...today! New Ideas...New Solutions...NewEnergy. For a free 30-day trial visit us at http://www.NewEnergyAssoc.com/justdownloadit or call us at 770 779 2957 for more information ------------------------------------------------------------- WSJ Says Enron Officials Knew About Chewco Partnership Top Enron executives, including Chairman Lay and former CEO Jeffrey Skilling, knew about the controversial partnerships, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing minutes from a November 5, 1997 meeting. Former CFO Andrew Fastow and several board members including external director Herbert Winokur Jr were also at the meeting that discussed Enron's partnership Chewco, named for the Star Wars character Chewbacca. Chewco, which was supposed to be completely independent, but was run and partly owned by Enron executive Michael Kopper, who also attended the meeting. Federal investigators and private litigants are trying to find out who knew what about Chewco and when. An attorney for Winokur says the executive committee was told that Chewco was a special-purpose vehicle not affiliated with the company. The board never waived the conflict-of-interest policy for Kopper nor was the board told that Kopper was involved with Chewco. ------------------------------------------------------------- FAST. FLEXIBLE. PROVEN. The AURORA(TM) electric market model helps you deal with the challenges and risks of today's energy marketplace. Exceptionally fast and easy to learn, AURORA(TM) reflects fundamental market drivers and gives power marketers, resource developers and portfolio managers a better way to manage against market uncertainty and price volatility. AURORA delivers - ? Price forecasts - hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly ? On-peak, off-peak pricing ? Resource valuation and net power costs ? Portfolio analyses ? Capacity expansion analyses ? Effects of emissions ? And much more . . . AURORA's comprehensive databases cover all electricity markets throughout the U.S. and Canada. The model also handles storage, congestion pricing, and offers detailed reporting and data export capabilities. It can be used as a stand-alone tool or be integrated with your other business tools. Visit us at http://ww.epis.com or call (503) 722-2023. EPIS, Inc. Market Information Solutions for the Electric Power Marketplace ------------------------------------------------------------- Natural Gas NYMEX Volume 02MAR 28,386 02APR 6,782 02MAY 2,853 02JUN 1,156 02JLY 1,787 02AUG 1,270 02SEP 1,360 02OCT 2,160 02NOV 1,238 02DEC 1,213 03JAN 1,710 03FEB 1,558 03MAR 130 03APR 57 03MAY 36 03JUN 179 03JLY 54 03AUG 827 03SEP 203 03OCT 62 03NOV 125 03DEC 84 04JAN 19 04FEB 52 ------------------------------------------------------------- GET REAL about energy risk management with KWI In today's fast moving energy markets you need to be able to manage risk in real time. That means knowing before you hit a risk problem, not afterwards when it may be too late to prevent big losses spreading right through your enterprise. With kW3000(tm), our multi-commodity, integrated front to back office software, you can monitor your Profit At Risk(tm), counterparty risk and mark-to-market all in real time. Keep alert to risk. Do it in real time. Call KWI -Americas: +1-281-681-3301 / Europe: +44 (0) 20-7386-2700 / Asia Pacific: +61(0) 2-9976-6111 http://www.kwi.com -------------------------------------------------------------- Lay Breaks Date with Congress After Report Issued Enron attempted to systematically manipulate its financial results and deceive shareholders as top executives made personal gains of millions of dollars, according to William Powers, dean of the University of Texas Law School in testimony to be delivered before Congress yesterday. There was also failures in the performance of Enron's outside advisors. And there was a fundamental default of leadership and management, starting with former CEO Ken Lay and reaching to the board and senior managers. As Congress begins a week of hearings, the House Financial Services capital markets subcommittee also heard from SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt. Powers joined the Enron board to investigate events leading up to the company filing for bankruptcy on December 2nd. He has issued a 218-page report that found Enron fattened its profits by almost $1 billion through a web of financial partnerships used to hide losses, while top managers made millions of dollars they should never have received. He laid some of the blame for on Lay and of Jeffrey Skilling. Powers said former ex-Enron CFO Andrew Fastow made at least $30 million, while former senior executive Michael Kopper made at least $10 million through their involvement in off-the-books partnerships. Enron's board of directors failed in its duty to provide leadership and oversight and in the end, the tragedy could and should have been avoided, Powers said. After the report was released, Lay canceled plans to testify before a Senate committee and before the capital markets subcommittee. ------------------------------------------------------------- ENERGY. @ENERGY(r), FEA's Complete Suite of Energy Products, BUILT FOR THE FUTURE. *Manage all your energy risks. *Build and Price deals. *Value physical assets (generation, storage, etc.) *Report and reduce your energy risks FEA FINANCIAL ENGINEERING ASSOCIATES Inc. www.fea.com/?cId=18 Jennifer Cogley Marketing Department Financial Engineering Associates 2201 Dwight Way Berkeley, CA 94704 www.fea.com mailto:jennifer.cogley@fea.com T. +1 510-549-8702x209 F. +1 510-548-0332 ------------------------------------------------------------- PHYSICAL POWER PRICES | | High | Low | Average | | | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh | | Cinergy | 24.00 | 20.15 | 21.90 | | ECAR | 23.00 | 19.00 | 20.40 | | ERCOT | 21.00 | 18.50 | 19.10 | | Entergy | 21.05 | 20.00 | 20.50 | | TVA | 24.00 | 21.00 | 22.55 | | ComEd | 23.50 | 21.50 | 22.60 | | Nepool | 30.80 | 29.80 | 30.15 | | PJM West | 22.75 | 21.75 | 22.00 | | Main | 23.25 | 20.00 | 22.15 | | MAPP | 23.75 | 20.25 | 22.30 | | Palo Verde | 24.00 | 23.00 | 23.75 | | Mid C | 21.00 | 19.00 | 19.60 | | COB | 24.00 | 22.00 | 22.60 | | 4 Corners | 24.25 | 23.25 | 23.90 | | Mead | 25.75 | 24.00 | 24.95 | | NP 15 | 25.25 | 23.50 | 24.25 | | SP 15 | 25.25 | 23.50 | 24.45 | ------------------------------------------------------------- AEP May Sell Some Foreign Assets American Electric Power may sell Seeboard, which serves 2 million power and natural gas users in the UK, and CitiPower, an Australian retail and distribution unit, to lower debt as it switches its focus to wholesale markets and away from household power supply. Like Reliant and Mirant, AEP is selling foreign assets to protect its credit ratings. Enron's bankruptcy has caused many energy companies to slash capital spending and sell assets to lower debt. AEP has $2.6 billion in debt maturing in the next 2 years. Seeboard is valued at about $2.1 billion and CitiPower at as much as $760 million. AEP, which acquired Seeboard in a $10 billion buyout of C&SW, said will consider all potential options for Seeboard. AEP's 4th quarter earnings fell 41% due to mild weather. It is selling common stock and convertible preferred shares to raise cash and shore up its balance sheet. Last year, AEP sold Yorkshire Power in the UK and purchased 2 power stations. AEP has also been expanding its energy trading business after Enrons collapse. It bought Enron's Scandinavian businesses and hired 22 coal traders from Enron. Seeboard is likely to fetch a good price since it is the only supply business for sale in the UK. E.ON, Electricite de France and Scottish & Southern Energy have been named as likely bidders for Seeboard. CitiPowers sale will probably happen in the 3rd quarter, according to AEP. Possible buyers could be Australian Gas Light, United Energy and Origin Energy. AEP bought the retail and distribution company for $1.1 billion in 1998. ------------------------------------------------------------- OPEN SEASON SG Resources Mississippi, L.L.C., a wholly owned subsidiary of SGR Holdings, L.L.C., is conducting an open season for firm storage services at its new high-deliverability, salt cavern, natural gas storage facility, known as the Southern Pines Energy Center. The open season will begin at 9:00 a.m. CDT on February 4, 2002, and will continue until 5:00 p.m. CDT on March 4, 2002. The project is located at the border of Mississippi and Alabama with access to the major pipelines serving the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeastern United States. The facility is ideally located to serve as a transportation and storage hub for shippers on any one of nine major pipelines that will be interconnected directly or indirectly to the project. Information on the facility and the Open Season is available on our web site at http://www.sgr-holdings.com or contact us at 713-914-8188. ------------------------------------------------------------- Todays Gas Bulletins * Ken Lay Quits Enron Board as Congress Investigates * Maritimes Seeks FERC Approval of $250 Million Pipeline Expansion Into Northeast * World Natural Gas Producers Discuss Joint Ventures at Algeria Meeting * Three Hearings Scheduled for Today; One Involves Enron Board Member William Powers Who Will Testify Before House Energy and Commerce Committee's Oversight Subcommittee * Dynegy Says It Did Not Cause Enron's Bankruptcy; Says Enron Has Only Itself to Blame * Internal Enron Report Could Aid Prosecutors * Justice Department Says Enron Special Counsel Not Needed * Raymond James and Associates Boosts Natural Gas Price Estimate for 2nd Half of Year in Anticipation of Robust Demand Recovery * Enbridge Buys Texas Natural Gas Gathering and Processing Assets from Sulfur River Gathering for $178 Million * Williams Communications Posts Loss; Banks Warn of Default * Ex-Enron CEO Skilling Still Plans to Testify ------------------------------------------------------------ Ziff Energy Group presents Gas Storage 2002 Redefining the Fundamentals: Is Gas Still in the Storage Game? Power Drives Storage Will the recession affect plant and storage development? Will record high volumes in storage further depress gas prices? Is it possible to mitigate storage risk while dealing with year-round price volatility? Plus Two Important Workshops Calpine Corporation Hear what the Power Generator wants from the storage industry Bruce Bernard Learn from the expert how to mitigate storage price risk in the 2002 gas marketplace February 6 & 7 Houston Four Season Hotel 1300 Lamar Street Register Today for this Important Conference Call 1-800-853-6252 Email: gasconference@ziffenergy.com Visit: http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com ------------------------------------------------------------- Williams May Sell Midwest Oil Products Pipeline Williams may sell its 8,000-mile Midwest oil products pipeline and storage depots for between $500 million and $1.5 billion, to help defray costs from possible exposure to $2.4 billion from Williams Communications. Last week, Williams postponed the release of 4th quarter results to review costs associated with Williams Communications Group, which was spun off in April. Williams said that those costs will be included in the 4th quarter earnings report. Williams Energy Partners which is 60% owned by Williams has been mentioned as a likely buyer for the pipeline. Williams has sold securities and cut capital spending to shore up its balance sheet amid heavier scrutiny by credit rating agencies following Enron's bankruptcy. Williams' 7.5% coupon bonds maturing in 2031 were down about $44 to $879 per $1,000 face value from $923 last week, with the spread above US Treasuries climbing to 330 basis points from 285. None of the rating agencies has downgraded Williams debt yet, but S&P has says it may lower Williams' ratings because of concern about the company's finances. S&P rates Williams 'BBB+', Moody's rates it 'Baa2' and Fitch rates it as 'BBB', all investment grade. Williams is aiming complete the Midwest pipeline sale by the end of the 2nd quarter. Net income for Williams Energy Partners more climbed to $21.7 million from $3 million a year ago. It also raised quarterly payment to unit holders by 12% to $0.59. The possible purchase of the Midwest pipeline could be financed through a combination of debt and equity, Williams Energy Partners said. The partnership has $140 million in private debt. Williams said its 4th quarter loss had widened and its banks have warned that the it may be in default of their credit agreements. Williams' stock dropped 13.9% yesterday, down 2.64 to 16.36. ------------------------------------------------------------- R. W. Beck is an engineering and management consulting firm serving utilities, developers, financiers and governments worldwide. Founded in 1942, we help our clients face energy market challenges by providing: Portfolio Analysis to improve diversification and risk-adjusted performance of energy assets. Risk Control to help reduce the probability of losses. Asset Valuation to understand the market value and risk characteristics of physical and financial energy assets. Training to improve your ability to identify and manage tactical and strategic risks. Please visit our web site at http://www.rwbeck.com ------------------------------------------------------------- POWER FUTURES | Month | COB | Change | PV | Change | | MAR | 19.25 | +0.00 | 21.35 | +0.10 | | APR | 19.75 | +0.00 | 22.25 | -0.25 | | MAY | 19.50 | +0.00 | 23.75 | -0.75 | | JUN | 20.00 | +0.00 | 26.75 | -0.75 | | JUL | 26.50 | +0.00 | 37.25 | -0.25 | | AUG | 38.00 | +0.00 | 42.50 | +0.00 | | SEP | 26.00 | +0.00 | 33.00 | +0.50 | | OCT | 24.00 | +0.00 | 28.00 | -1.00 | | NOV | 24.50 | +0.00 | 27.00 | -0.50 | | DEC | 26.00 | +0.00 | 27.50 | -1.00 | | JAN | 30.00 | +0.00 | 28.25 | -0.25 | | FEB | 27.50 | +0.00 | 28.00 | +0.25 | | Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change | | MAR | 19.80 | -0.20 | 20.90 | -0.40 | | APR | 19.80 | -0.20 | 21.25 | -0.25 | | MAY | 22.25 | -0.25 | 24.50 | +0.00 | | JUN | 27.10 | +0.00 | 29.75 | -0.05 | | JUL | 34.60 | -0.05 | 38.00 | -0.40 | | AUG | 35.25 | +0.60 | 38.00 | -0.40 | | SEP | 31.65 | +0.00 | 22.85 | -0.25 | | OCT | 22.00 | +0.05 | 22.90 | -0.10 | | NOV | 22.00 | +0.05 | 22.90 | -0.10 | | DEC | 22.00 | +0.05 | 22.90 | -0.10 | | JAN | 24.15 | -0.10 | 25.50 | -0.50 | | FEB | 24.15 | -0.10 | 25.50 | -0.50 | ------------------------------------------------------------- Power Futures | Month | PJM | Change | | MAR | 24.70 | -0.40 | | APR | 25.20 | +0.10 | | MAY | 28.25 | -0.30 | | JUN | 34.75 | -0.50 | | JUL | 46.10 | -0.25 | | AUG | 27.05 | +0.00 | | SEP | 27.05 | -0.05 | | OCT | 26.05 | -0.05 | | NOV | 26.05 | -0.05 | | DEC | 26.05 | -0.05 | | JAN | 30.25 | +0.00 | | FEB | 30.25 | +0.00 | ------------------------------------------------------------- Nymex Natural Gas Option Volatility Supplied by "The Daily Hedger" Futures Implied Month Settlement Days Left Volatility Mar $2.117 21 67.7% Apr $2.184 49 57.7% May $2.252 80 51.4% Jun $2.317 113 47.3% Jul $2.377 141 53.4% Aug $2.432 172 48.8% Sep $2.432 204 49.0% Oct $2.459 233 54.9% Nov $2.679 266 46.9% Dec $2.879 294 57.6% ------------------------------------------------------------- 7th Annual THE LDC FORUM * WINTER OF 2002 April 18-19, 2002 - Boston, Massachusetts SAVE $100 - ACT NOW! (offer expires 2-15-02) CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: Meet with over 500 gas buyers and sellers at the largest LDC Forum ever! Special sessions include detailed discussions on The Post-Enron Marketplace, Volatile Gas Prices, Minimizing Risk, New Projects in the Northeast, Supply Issues and more.. FOR ATTENDEES LIST, go to: http://www.interchange-energy.com/Boston/Attendees.htm FOR AGENDA, go to: http://www.interchange-energy.com/Boston/Agenda.htm TO REGISTER, go to: http://www.interchange-energy.com/Boston/Register.htm VISIT OUR WEBSITE at: http://www.interchange-energy.com THE LDC FORUM SERIES: Boston - April 18-19, 2002 http://www.interchange-energy.com/Boston/Home.htm Atlanta - June 10-12, 2002 http://www.interchange-energy.com/Atlanta/Home.htm Chicago - September 9-11, 2002 http://www.interchange-energy.com/Chicago/Home.htm OR CALL Jerry Ribnick at 763-545-1515 The LDC Forum * Winter of 2002 CORPORATE SPONSORS AEP Energy Services * Aquila * Caminus * Columbia Gas Transmission * Conoco Gas and Power * Dominion Transmission * Duke Energy * El Paso Merchant Energy * EnergyUSA-TPC Corporation * Entergy-Koch Trading, LP * Greyhawk Gas Storage Company, LLC * Iroquois Gas Transmission System LP * Lukens Energy Group * Northwinds Pipeline * PG&E National Energy Group * Reliant Energy * Shell Trading (Coral Energy) * Tennessee Gas Pipeline * TransCanada PipeLines * TXU Energy Trading * Union Gas * Williams Gas Pipeline -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lay Makes Himself Scarce A congressional committee trying to serve a subpoena on former Enron Chairman Ken Lay can not seem to locate him. His personal attorney does not know where he is and would not accept the subpoena. The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee finds the whole situation quiet puzzling. Lay's attorney says he is ill and has no idea where Lay is. Lay resigned from Enron's board yesterday as two congressional committees vowed to force him to come before them to testify or take the 5th Amendment. He had been scheduled to appear before a House Financial Services subcommittee, but backed out over the weekend. It had hoped to compel him to appear today. Lay had also been scheduled to appear before a Senate committee, but canceled that date also. ------------------------------------------------------------- Progas Storage and Services, Inc. Progas can custom build gas storage in the Upper Midwest. ? Design to your specifications ? Close to your markets ? Unregulated storage ? Lower transportation fees ? Lower storage rates Progas is now accepting proposals and orders for years 2002-2007 for approxamately 5 bcf of storage on Midwestern system serving Indiana, Illinois, and 3 bcf on Texas Gas Transmission system serving Tennessee, northern Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Additional potential storage filds beding acquired at this time on Midwestern, anhandle Eastern and A & R (Coastal) systems serving the Upper Midwest. Inquiries from potential partners, investment bankers, and brokers welcome. Progas Storage and Services, Inc. 8610 South Highway 277 Abilene, TX 79606 Phone: 915-698-3699 Fax: 915-698-2859 Email: gastorage@aol.com ------------------------------------------------------------- TRADERS DEBATE SHORT SIDE OF MARKET Although Monday's price action on the New York Mercantile Exchange is perhaps best described as lackadaisical, some traders see inspiration to take the short side of the market where others are focusing on a longer term trend higher. "When the March contract expired (January 29), it got as low as $1.97 and developed a modest countertrend higher. As long as the market was able to continue trading above the previous day's low, that advance worked well," noted Dean Hazelcorn, trader with Coquest, Dallas. "Today looks like a sell signal. The high of the March contract did not exceed Friday's high and today's low was lower. That sets up a trade down to $1.97. I look for a slow deteriorating front end of the board," he noted. "I'm back in a bearish mode, and I think we're headed below $2.00. I believe that there is a 99% probability the market will work lower, but it may take 3 months to do it," he cautioned. Other traders are more optimistic. "Longer term I'm bullish," says John Beaver, President Private Futures Group, Oklahoma City. "It's more difficult to be bullish on the front of the board, but looking at the charts it suggests that prices may be set to rise. There's a gap on the weekly chart between $2.17 and $2.20 on the weekly chart (week ending January 18, and January 25). and if prices could fill that gap, it would be a positive sign that prices were set to move higher," he said. A gap is a pattern on the price charts followed by market technicians. The idea is that the gap may act as a barrier to (in this case) further price advances. Once the gap is "filled", however, a potential limitation to price advances has been removed and prices would be empowered to move higher. "I don't have any interest in being short the market at the $2.00 level. I don't want to be in a trade that may only make 10 or 15 cents and have to worry about it," he said. "If you are a commercial trader are you going to get short at $1.85? What is your board of directors going to say?" More observations and market forecasts in GasTrader Newsletter. Go to Subscribe to GasTrader.net to sign up for FREE five week trial. ------------------------------------------------------------- FINANCIAL SUMMARY The TSE 300 dropped 99.44 points to 7591.07 The CRB Index dipped 0.21 points to 189.30 The US Dollar decreased 0.88 points to 118.91 The Dow declined 220.10 points to 9687.09 The S&P 500 lost 27.76 points to 1094.44 The Nasdaq was down 55.71 points to 1855.53 March NYMEX Crude Oil fell 0.31 to 20.07 Canadian-US Exchange rose 0.0008 to 1.5915 ------------------------------------------------------------- Pure Text, Lotus, AOL, Yahoo, Excite, Readers-subscribe by writing to: enerfax-subscribe@egroups.com Outlook Email Readers-subscribe to webmail by writing to: mailto:join-EnerfaxDaily@relay.netatlantic.com ------------------------------------------------------------- To view past issues of Enerfax Daily -Sign up for free at Divine's Sagewave at http://www.sagewave.com/D2/autolog/common/log.asp?KEY=enerfax ------------------------------------------------------------- Please welcome our advertisers by visiting these websites. http://www.e-acumen.com http://www.kwi.com/ http://www.fea.com/ http://www.caminus.com/ http://www.progas.net/wip http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com/ http://www.epis.com http://www.rwbeck.com http://www.NewEnergyAssoc.com enerfaxtext, forward to delete@enerfax.com to unsubscribe.
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