Enron Mail

From:mark.whitt@enron.com
To:barry.tycholiz@enron.com
Subject:Aquila Risk180 program
Cc:
Bcc:
Date:Tue, 28 Aug 2001 08:22:59 -0700 (PDT)

=20
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Sent: Monday, August 27, 2001 11:16 PM
To: mwhitt@enron.com
Subject: [enerfaxdaily] New California Energy Board at Odds With FERC


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Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Tuesday, August 28, 2001 No. 813

Visit our website at: <http://www.enerfax.com/<;=20
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PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES =20
Gulf/Eastern Region =20
| Agua Dulce | 2.53 |
| ANR SE | 2.54 |
| Carthage TG | 2.56 |
| Chicago Citygate | 2.59 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 2.74 |
| Dominion South Point | 2.70 |
| Henry Hub | 2.60 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 2.64 |
| Katy Hub | 2.59 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 2.48 |
| NGPL STX | 2.53 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 2.55 |
| NNG Demarc. | 2.52 |
| Niagara | 2.73 |
| Sonat Tier 1 | 2.59 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 2.74 |
| Tetco ELa | 2.54 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.89 |
| Tetco STX | 2.50 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 2.50 |
| TGP Zone 1 | 2.53 |
| TGT Zone SL | 2.59 |
| New York Citygate | 2.90 |
| Transco Station 65 | 2.63 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.90 |
| Trunk ELa | 2.49 |
| Western Region =20
| California Border | 2.88 |
| El Paso Permian | 2.52 |
| El Paso San Juan | 2.32 |
| Waha Hub | 2.53 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region=20
| Nova/Aeco (in C$/GJ) | 3.21 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 2.72 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 2.28 |
| Wyoming Pool | 2.14 |
| Opal/Kern River | 2.15 |
| PGT-Malin | 2.57 |
| Sumas | 2.21 |
---------------------------------------------
NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub
12 Month Strip 3.0524 -0.1543 =20
18 Month Strip 3.1888 -0.1529 =20
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| SEP | 2.640 | 2.530 | 2.544 | -0.162 |
| OCT | 2.695 | 2.565 | 2.582 | -0.154 |
| NOV | 2.910 | 2.830 | 2.840 | -0.156 |
| DEC | 3.270 | 3.130 | 3.140 | -0.160 |
| JAN | 3.425 | 3.280 | 3.290 | -0.160 |
| FEB | 3.320 | 3.240 | 3.253 | -0.157 |
| MAR | 3.220 | 3.160 | 3.173 | -0.152 |
| APR | 3.080 | 3.080 | 3.090 | -0.150 |
| MAY | 3.180 | 3.110 | 3.110 | -0.150 |
| JUN | 3.220 | 3.150 | 3.154 | -0.150 |
| JUL | 3.260 | 3.210 | 3.204 | -0.150 |
| AUG | 3.300 | 3.250 | 3.249 | -0.150 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
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---------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES =20
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| SEP | 45.00 | +0.00 | 40.25 | -5.75 |
| OCT | 41.00 | +0.00 | 41.00 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 41.50 | +0.00 | 40.50 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 52.50 | +0.00 | 42.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 50.00 | +0.00 | 40.00 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 44.00 | +0.00 | 38.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 38.00 | +0.00 | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| APR | 33.50 | +0.00 | 33.75 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 33.50 | +0.00 | 35.75 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 33.50 | +0.00 | 47.75 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 57.00 | +0.00 | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 57.00 | +0.00 | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| SEP | 29.45 | -0.65 | 26.35 | -0.25 |
| OCT | 26.65 | -0.90 | 25.75 | -0.65 |
| NOV | 26.15 | -1.05 | 25.55 | -0.30 |
| DEC | 27.95 | -1.05 | 27.05 | -0.95 |
| JAN | 29.00 | -1.50 | 29.25 | -1.25 |
| FEB | 29.00 | -1.50 | 29.25 | -1.25 |
| MAR | 28.25 | -1.75 | 29.50 | +0.25 |
| APR | 28.25 | -2.25 | 29.50 | +0.25 |
| MAY | 31.50 | -1.25 | 31.25 | -0.75 |
| JUN | 41.50 | -0.75 | 41.25 | -1.25 |
| JUL | 53.75 | -1.50 | 56.25 | -1.25 |
| AUG | 53.75 | -1.50 | 56.25 | -1.25 |
-----------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES
| Month | PJM | Change |
| SEP | 30.20 | -0.55 |
| OCT | 29.20 | -0.65 |
| NOV | 29.20 | -0.65 |
| DEC | 29.20 | -0.65 |
| JAN | 33.95 | -0.90 |
| FEB | 33.95 | -0.90 |
| MAR | 32.00 | -0.10 |
| APR | 32.00 | -0.10 |
| MAY | 33.50 | -0.25 |
| JUN | 43.50 | -0.25 |
| JUL | 58.50 | -1.75 |
| AUG | 58.50 | -1.75 |
------------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Futures and Cash Tumble=20

Natural gas futures for September delivery on the NYMEX tumbled $0.162 =
to $2.544 per MMBtu yesterday, after hitting a 18-month low on weak overall=
fundamentals. The October contract dropped $0.154 to $2.582 per MMBtu. The=
September contract traded at its lowest price since February 2000 when it =
reached a low of $2.53. Bearish fundamentals are triggered by last week's r=
evised storage, mild weather and no tropical storm action on the immediate =
horizon. Last week, the AGA revised the prior week's reported data up 47 Bc=
f in addition to the higher than expect injection for the that week. The fa=
lloff is in preparation for this week's expected much higher than normal. =
Most of New England and interior New York state will experience mild weathe=
r this as will most of the Pacific coast. Temperatures will turn mild in th=
e Midwest, northern Plains and Northeast later this week, putting more pres=
sure on the market. Look for prices to open lower this morning and continue=
under pressure. September options expire today and futures tomorrow. Look =
for next support at $2.43 and then $2.39; with resistance seen at $2.83, an=
d then $2.97. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US and Canada wa=
s generally $0.15 to $0.20 lower yesterday, except out West where spot pric=
es dipped about $0.05. Natural gas for next day delivery at the Henry hub l=
ost $0.17 to $2.60 per MMBtu.=20
-----------------------------------------------------------



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---------------------------------------------------
PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 32.00 | 28.50 | 29.85 |
| ECAR | 32.15 | 28.70 | 30.40 |
| ERCOT | 36.00 | 31.00 | 32.70 |
| Entergy | 32.15 | 30.00 | 32.00 |
| TVA | 35.75 | 34.70 | 35.45 |
| ComEd | 31.00 | 29.00 | 29.85 |
| PJM West | 40.00 | 38.00 | 38.60 |
| Main | 32.00 | 29.00 | 30.70 |
| MAPP | 36.00 | 33.50 | 34.75 |
| Palo Verde | 60.00 | 49.00 | 56.25 |
| Mid C | 47.00 | 43.50 | 45.15 |
| COB | 46.50 | 45.00 | 45.65 |
| 4 Corners | 61.00 | 51.00 | 55.80 |
| Mead | 62.00 | 51.00 | 58.20 |
| NP 15 | 52.00 | 48.00 | 49.30 |
| SP 15 | 52.00 | 48.00 | 49.60 |
-----------------------------------------------
Fast. Flexible. Proven.=20

The AURORA electric market model helps you deal with the challenges and ris=
ks of today's energy marketplace.=20

Exceptionally fast and easy to learn, AURORA reflects fundamental market dr=
ivers and gives power marketers, resource developers and portfolio managers=
a better way to manage against market uncertainty and price volatility. =
=20

AURORA delivers -=20
*Price forecasts - hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly=20
*On-peak, off-peak pricing=20
*Resource valuation and net power costs=20
*Portfolio analyses=20
*Capacity expansion analyses=20
*Effects of emissions=20
*And much more . . .=20

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Give AURORA a test drive today. Visit us at www.epis.com or call (503) 722-=
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--------------------------------------------------------
NATURAL GAS OPTIONS
| | Closing | Days | Implied ATM |
| Month | Price | Left | Volatility |
| SEP | 2.544 | 2 | 79.75% |
| OCT | 2.582 | 30 | 71.22% |
| NOV | 2.840 | 61 | 64.13% |
| DEC | 3.140 | 93 | 57.30% |
--------------------------------------------------------
Today's Power Bulletins
* Alliant Energy Selects KWI for Enterprise-Wide Trading and Risk Managemen=
t
* Texas Independent Energy Announces 1,000 MW Odessa Natural Gas Fired Powe=
r Plant Fully Operational
* California ISO Offers Audio 'System Conditions' Line for News Media
* AES to Acquire PSEG Global's Interests in 5 Jointly Held Argentine Busine=
sses for $376 Million
* Calpine Completes Acquisition of 1,200 MW Saltend Energy Centre in Englan=
d
* Texas in Big Push to Develop More Wind Power
* eScout and UtiliCorp Unite in Partnership
* Mirant to Develop 1,200 MW Natural Gas Fired Power Plant in Gastonia, Nor=
th Carolina; Commercial Operations in Summer of 2004
* Hungry North Korean Coal Miners Strike
* Western Spot Power Prices Rise on Increased Weather Related Demand
* Unit Outage and New York City Heat Props Up New York Spot Power Prices
* Mid-Continent Peak Power Prices Slide Amid Limited Demand; Transmission L=
ine Loading Relief Measures to Increase
* Most Southeast Spot Power Prices Decline Amid Mild Weather
-------------------------------------------------------
Cypress Natural Gas, LLC
"Citygate Gas Marketing Experts" for the mid-Atlantic Region
Cypress Natural Gas, LLC specializes in the delivery to the VNG, BG&E, WGL,=
CGV, PECO, Col. of Maryland Citygates. We market citygate supply to large =
commercial and industrial accounts, as well as, wholesale marketing to mar=
keters with limited regional experience. For more information, please
call Richard W. Gechter, Jr. at (757) 496-2100
--------------------------------------------------------
Today's Gas Bulletins
* Spot Natural Gas Prices Pressured Lower by NYMEX Losses and Mild Temperat=
ures
* Compass Energy Announces 4 for 1 Stock Split
* Texaco Plans Pipeline in Colombia to Export $5 Billion of Natural Gas to =
Venezuela Over 10 Years
* Fitch Views BGE's Wholesale Contract as Supportive of Rating
* El Paso Merchant Energy Names Peter Smith to Senior Management Team
* Williams Signs $10 Million Weather and Climate Research Alliance with the=
University of Oklahoma; Largest Between Private US Corporation and Univers=
ity Meteorology Program
--------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
01SEP 22,330
01OCT 12,350
01NOV 6,328
01DEC 3,085
02JAN 2,830
02FEB 1,497=20
02MAR 1,817
02APR 1,040
02MAY 1,930
02JUN 235
02JLY 595
02AUG 1,086
02SEP 2,012
02OCT 222
02NOV 146
02DEC 214
03JAN 163
03FEB 15
03MAR 10
03APR 107=20
03MAY 112
03JUN 7
03JLY 7
03AUG 6
-------------------------------------------------------
Rig Utilization Drops

Gulf of Mexico offshore rig utilization fell 6 rigs to 74.6% last week,=
a 22-month low, according to ODS-Petrodata Group. The 159 rigs under contr=
act out of a total of 213. European offshore rig utilization was steady at =
97%, with 98 of the region's 101 rigs under contract. Worldwide offshore ri=
g utilization fell 7 rigs to 85.8%, with 560 of 653 under contract.
--------------------------------------------------------









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--------------------------------------------------------
Blast Hits Canadian Natural Gas Storage Facility

A Canadian natural gas storage facility exploded Sunday, sending a hug=
e fireball into the sky over Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The explosion hap=
pened at a BP Canada Energy pipeline processing plant when natural gas from=
a malfunctioning wellhead ignited. There were no reported injuries. The fi=
re was located in an underground storage facility and is being allowed to b=
urn itself out as it is too hot for firefighters to get close.=20
--------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
AGL Lowers Guidance for 2001

AGL Resources has revised downward its fiscal 2001 earnings guidance du=
e to overstatement of revenue and net income by SouthStar Energy Services. =
AGL says it will earn between $1.49 and $1.51 per share in fiscal 2001, bel=
ow Wall Street estimates of $1.55 per share. AGL, Dynegy and Piedmont Natur=
al Gas have interests in SouthStar. AGL claims SouthStar's management has o=
verstated net income and revenues since 1998 by about $27 million. Of which=
AGL's portion is about $14 million. Last month, AGL filed a complaint on b=
ehalf of SouthStar to have Dynegy Marketing and Trade provide a full accoun=
t of its activities as asset manager for SouthStar. AGL owns 50% of SouthSt=
ar; Piedmont, 30%; and Dynegy Marketing and Trade, 20%.
--------------------------------------------------------
PNW 2001:
Current Realities, Future Expectations
Pacific Northwest Gas Strategies Conference
October 2,2001 Portland,Oregon (at the Hilton Portland)

Hear Commissioner Wilson Condon, State of Alaska, describe how Alaska gas s=
upply will energize the Pacific Northwest supply portfolio. And let Joe Mar=
ushack, VP, ANS Gas Commercialization for Phillips Alaska, tell you about
the plans to make these supplies a reality.

Get additional gas supply updates from Art Eastly, President & CEO, Canadia=
n Forest Oil Ltd. (NWT) and Lanny Outlaw, President & CEO, Western Gas Reso=
urces (Rockies).

Our keynote speaker on transportation will be Michael Stewart, Executive VP=
,Westcoast Gas Pipeline. Also discussing pipeline expansions will be: Peter=
Lund, PG&E Transmission, NW; Kirk Morgan, Williams Gas Pipeline West; Dona=
ld Zinko, Colorado Interstate Gas; and Randy Jespersen, BC Gas Utility Ltd.
You'll also have an opportunity to hear the latest on Questar's new salt ca=
vern storage facility - available to the PNW - from Questar's Gary Schmitt.

Find out views on future demand growth in the PNW from keynote speaker Dick=
Reiten, Chairman & CEO, NW Natural. Hear how the Bonneville Power Administ=
ration plans to reconnect with its supply contracts from Acting Administrat=
or & CEO, Steve Wright. Also hear what Paula Pyron, Executive Director, NW =
Industrial Gas Users, has to say about her constituents' needs.

For more information please visit:
http://www.ziffenergyconferences.com
call 1-800-853-6252,
or email us at gasconference@ziffenergy.com <http://gasconference@ziffenerg=
y.com/<
----------------------------------------------------------
JP Morgan Cuts Forest and Louis Dreyfus Ratings

JP Morgan has cut its ratings on Forest Oil and Louis Dreyfus Natural =
Gas to 'market performer' from 'long-term buy', citing lower forecasts for =
natural gas prices. The downgrades came after JP Morgan revised its 3rd qua=
rter Henry Hub natural price forecast to $2.90 per MMBtu from $3.25 per MMB=
tu. It also dropped its 4th quarter forecast to $2.75 MMBtu from $3.75 per =
MMBtu. Other than lower expected natural gas prices, JP Morgan had nothing =
but good things to say about both companies, calling Louis Dreyfus as a wel=
l-run company with attractive assets, and noting that Forest offers attract=
ive exploration upside potential relative to peers and appears to be set fo=
r a strong year in terms of reserve additions after recent drilling success=
in the Cook Inlet of Alaska.
--------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
DOE Project to Help Nuclear Power Plant Construction

The DOE has unveiled a pilot project which will encourage private compani=
es to consider new nuclear power plant sites. The DOE wants private compani=
es to submit early requests to have potential sites licensed with the NRC, =
and has dedicated $700,000 to subsidize site permitting studies. The plan =
is to help break down barriers affecting future near-term deployment of new=
nuclear power plants. The DOE program will look at existing sites, green-f=
ield sites and federal sites. Applications for the program are due by Octob=
er 15th. =20
--------------------------------------------------------
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-------------------------------------------------------
Enron Wind May Be Overvalued

Enron is reportedly having problems in a effort to sell Enron Wind, wit=
h top prospective buyers saying the company is too expensive and there is n=
o need to consolidate. The world's largest supplier of wind turbines with a=
third of the global market, Danish Vestas Wind Systems, says their strateg=
y is grow on their own as the market grows, and will not even consider buyi=
ng Enron Wind. The global wind power market is predicted to increase by an =
annual average rate of 19% per year over the next ten years. Enron Wind has=
unofficially been up for sale for several years, but has not received any =
reported serious interest near the asking price. German-Danish Nordex is ac=
tively seeking potential acquisition candidates and was talking to Enron Wi=
nd, but says it is too highly valued. Last week, Enron's wind turbine unit =
was valued at $725 million. NEG Micon, with a market share more than twice =
as large as Enron Wind, is worth $860 million based its stock price.=20
-----------------------------------------------------
Enerfax Job Center & News
New Openings include:
* Pipeline Compliance Specialist
* Software Sales
* Jr/Sr Derivative/Risk Analyst

Visit <http://www.enernetenergy/<; for these and more new job listings.=20
--------------------------------------------------------
Aquila Launches Energy Risk Management Service
=20
Aquila has launched Risk180, a product that offers full-service managem=
ent of commodity transactions, delivered daily, weekly or monthly via the W=
eb. Risk180 will be marketed to utilities, municipalities, energy aggregato=
rs and small energy marketers, as well as large industrials. Using a passwo=
rd-protected Web-interface, clients send Aquila their transactions or trade=
s, which are then processed through the its proprietary system. The client =
then receives daily, weekly or monthly risk analysis and deal pricing repor=
ts. Aquila's Radius Group jointly developed Risk180 with SunGard. Risk180 w=
ill initially handle only natural gas transactions. Power transaction capab=
ilities will be added in the near future. Data available to clients include=
s detailed portfolio valuation, evening over-the-counter trade previews, ma=
rk-to-market income reports, total position reports as well as forward curv=
es, deal capture and value-at-risk calculations.
--------------------------------------------------------

Progas Storage Services, Inc

Was recently organized to offer specialized natural gas storage services to=
marketers and end users servicing the upper Midwest and Northeast market r=
egions along the major transmission systems in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky,=
and Michigan. PGSMI has 10 bcf of potential working capacity which will of=
fer service along TXG, ANR, Midwestern, and is currently evaluating for pur=
chase another 21 bcf of potential working capacity which can be serviced by=
these and other systems in the region. PGSMI also explores for natural gas=
in the Gulf Coast region through a wholly owned subsidiary. Progas intends=
to go public through a route of private industry offerings, and an IPO or =
registration. For more information on services or the company mail to: gast=
orage@aol.com or for AOL mail to gastorage@aol.com <http://gastorage@aol.co=
m/<; web site currently under construction at: <http://www.progas.net/wip<;.

The company's executive and administrative office is located in Abilene, Te=
xas with storage operations in Owensboro, KY and exploration operations in =
Corpus Christi, TX.

Progas Storage Services, Inc =20
8610 S. Hwy 277
Abilene, TX 79606

Ph 915 698 3699
Fx 915 698 2859
--------------------------------------------------------
Phase II of Odessa Power Plant Begins Commercial Operations

Texas Independent Energy, a 50/50 joint venture of PSEG Global of New J=
ersey and privately held Panda Energy International of Dallas, has begun co=
mmercial operation of the 2nd 500 MW power block of the 1,000 MW power gene=
ration plant in Odessa, Texas. The 1st phase went on line last month. The=
Odessa plant is one of two 1,000 MW generation plants owned and operated b=
y TIE. The other 1,000 MW plant in Guadalupe, Texas began operations last =
January.=20
-------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------
New California Energy Board at Odds with FERC

In its first meeting, the California Consumer Power and Conservation Fi=
nancing Authority was told that plans to build additional natural gas stora=
ge fields will provide the state with insurance against sudden price hikes =
resulting from supply shortages. California's governor has given the author=
ity for up to $5 billion to build more power plants, add natural gas storag=
e, increase renewable energy, and create conservation incentives. However, =
there are concerns that the agency will dampen enthusiasm for private inves=
tment in the state's beleaguered power system. In order to control their ow=
n destiny, officials say that California needs a sufficient surplus of natu=
ral gas to ensure competition. Mirroring its accusations against power gene=
rators, California has alleged that natural gas pipeline companies created =
non-existent shortages to drive up prices. However, the mandate given to th=
e authority by the governor could put the state on a collision course with =
the FERC, which claims exclusive jurisdiction under the Federal Power Act. =
The authority will expire in 2006, unless the state legislature revives it.
-------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 gained 32.28 points to 7662.24
The CRB Index decreased 0.33 points to 199.22
The US Dollar declined 0.08 points to 113.39
The Dow dropped 40.34 points to 10382.35
The S&P 500 lost 5.72 points to 1179.21
The Nasdaq was down 4.39 points to 1912.41
September NYMEX Crude Oil fell 0.23 to 26.67
Canadian-US Exchange climbed .0012 to 1.5422
-------------------------------------------------------
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<http://www.fame-energy.com/<
<http://www.e-acumen.com/knowledge_powerview.html<
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