Technical Market View

Per our conversation yesterday on TW fuel sales, below are the general criteria I use in formulating my market view. Please note that these are listed in order of importance.

1. Continuation Charts:
Looks like the recent move to 2.450 completed the -B- Wave down and we are currently in the -C- wave up of this larger -A- up; -B- down; and -C- up move. Specifically, within this -C- wave up:
2.450 to 2.854 = A up of -C-
2.854 to 2.630 = B dn of -C-
2.630 to ???? = C up of -C-; where 2.880 is minimum expected upside target, 2.960 is the pivot, and 3.035 is maximum expected upside target.

2. Spot - 12 Month Strip Spread:
This study has thus far accurately called for a feeble rally this winter, with the downtrend continuing into January 2002.

3. Seasonal Price Patterns:
Calendar January is the highest probability window for the low of the year, then spot tends to rally into late October, with two minor cycles:
Summer pre-season rally: Typically bottoms in late January, and peaks from mid-April to mid-May.
Winter pre-season rally: Typically bottoms in late September, and peaks in late October to late November.

Conclusion:
Criteria #2 and #3 point to prices continuing to slide downward into the first part of 2002.
Criteria #1 infers significant resistance if prices rally into the 2.880 to 3.305 range.
Short to intermediate term trend-followers will be looking to buy strength if we get a close < 2.960.
On the downside, for each day prices don't close < 2.960, the bearish case for a continued decline to the 2.120 to 1.950 area will remain intact.
Implied volatility is 84%, which is somewhat on the higher part of the volatility scale for natural gas and infers current prices wont stay where they currently are for long.