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Enron Mail |
With Access currently trading at 3.340, here's the market structure as of July 31 which assesses the latest move up from 2.881. Please note that in my memo of Thursday, July 26, I said that if prompt closed < 3.328, Supercycle A (10.100 to 2.881) would likely be over. After further analysis, I found that the measurements I used to make this statement were not accurate. Sorry. Anyway, the latest numbers are below:
4.581 if prices close < 4.581 without first breaking below 2.881, then long term trend shifts from bottoming to up. 3.485 if prices trade < 3.485, new length will enter. 3.452 40-day moving average on continuation chart. 3.450 if prices trade < 3.450, bearish count is voided; casting serious doubt on any continuation of the downtrend, and any break from 3.450 will shift the long term trend from down to bottoming. As long as prices remain < 3.450, then this rally from 2.881 must be considered as the wave -II- up and a powerful wave -III- decline should follow. 3.366 prices traded < 3.366 on Monday, July 30th; thus, potential for new lows < 2.810 is minimized. 3.296 prompt close as of July 31. 3.145 if prices trade < 3.145, new shorts will enter. 2.983 if prices close < 2.983, then bullish scenario is greatly diminished. 2.364 .852 retracement of 1.020 to 10.100 cycle. 1.915 most bearish scenario. As per the view for the entire NG complex, I've been looking at the 12-month strip, and 3.723 seems to be a significant number. The failure of the strip to close < 3.723 keeps the door open to another new low targeting 3.073. A close < 3.723 will target a rally to 4.120 minimum with an outside shot at 4.623. Currently, the 12-month strip is trading at 3.644. On a side note, Cal 02 is trading 3.742. Call if you have any questions. LP .
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