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Enron Mail |
Scott asked me to forward you our latest election update. We have been
writing these since late October when we predicted a 276-262 Bush win in the electoral college and even highlighted potential delays connected to the overseas military vote in Florida, but no one could have predicted this mess! Cordially, Robert Johnston Manager, Political and Sovereign Risk Enron Global Markets x39934 ---------------------- Forwarded by Robert Johnston/HOU/ECT on 11/28/2000 05:48 PM --------------------------- Robert Johnston 11/28/2000 11:20 AM To: Mike McConnell/HOU/ECT@ECT, Gary Hickerson/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeffrey A Shankman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Joe Gold/LON/ECT@ECT, Mark Schroeder/LON/ECT@ECT, Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, John L Nowlan/HOU/ECT@ECT cc: William Stuart/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeff Kinneman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Michelle D Cisneros/HOU/ECT@ECT, Pushkar Shahi/HOU/ECT@ECT, Paul Pizzolato/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Greene/LON/ECT@ECT, Ellen Su/Corp/Enron@Enron, Steve Jacobellis/NA/Enron@Enron, Eric Scott/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, Trena McFarland/NA/Enron@Enron, Scott Tholan/Corp/Enron@Enron, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, John A Cote/HOU/ECT@ECT, Cynthia Sandherr/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Chris Long/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Jeffrey Keeler/Corp/Enron@ENRON, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Shane Dallmann/LON/ECT@ECT, Aaron Armstrong/LON/ECT@ECT, Jurgen Hess/LON/ECT@ECT, Martina Angelova/LON/ECT@ECT, J Christopher Champion/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jim Roth/EU/Enron@Enron, Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron William Stuart/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jeff Kinneman/HOU/ECT@ECT, Michelle D Cisneros/HOU/ECT@ECT, Pushkar Shahi/HOU/ECT@ECT, Paul Pizzolato/HOU/ECT@ECT, John Greene/LON/ECT@ECT, Ellen Su/Corp/Enron@Enron, Steve Jacobellis/NA/Enron@Enron, Eric Scott/HOU/ECT@ECT, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, Trena McFarland/NA/Enron@Enron, Scott Tholan/Corp/Enron@Enron, Kristin Walsh/HOU/ECT@ECT, John A Cote/HOU/ECT@ECT, Cynthia Sandherr/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Chris Long/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Jeffrey Keeler/Corp/Enron@ENRON, James D Steffes/NA/Enron@Enron, Shane Dallmann/LON/ECT@ECT, Aaron Armstrong/LON/ECT@ECT, Jurgen Hess/LON/ECT@ECT, Martina Angelova/LON/ECT@ECT, J Christopher Champion/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jim Roth/EU/Enron@Enron, Richard Shapiro/NA/Enron@Enron, Clayton Seigle/HOU/ECT@ECT Subject: Election Update 11/28 Summary: Vice President Gore believes he has won the state of Florida and the election, and is determined to see through the raft of legal challenges now launched in Florida state courts. Texas Governor Bush doesn't really care what Gore thinks and is moving on several fronts (including possible early cabinet appointments) to press his increasingly obvious public opinionadvantage. 1. Gore Strategy Gore and his campaign leaders are watching the Bush strategy and refusing to accede to the carefully crafted sense of "inevitability." "This all fades in a nanosecond if we win Florida," one Gore campaign adviser told us. Gore is still hoping to prevail in one of three legal challenges that could make a difference: the "dimpled chad" recount for Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties; the "absentee ballot" fraud suit in Seminole County, and; the "butterfly ballot re-vote" scenario for Palm Beach. In order for Gore to gain the Presidency, these decisions would still have to produce enough votes for Gore to overtake the 537 vote Bush lead (unlikely in Dade, possible in Palm Beach) and then be held up by the US Supreme Court. Of course, the US Supreme Court could simply uphold the certification and render the Florida cases moot (unless Bush decides to drop the Supreme Court action- see below). The Seminole County case is regarded as overblown because first, the Voter Identification Number was not required under Florida law only by the local election board and second, the Republicans only had access to the ballots before they were mailed out. Gore well understands that pursuing these cases in Florida court is losing him steady ground in the court of public opinion. As we wrote yesterday, that opinion is steadily turning against Gore's crusade and Bush plans to do everything in his power over the next few days to accelerate that turn. Polls from last night, before Gore spoke, indicate the vice president's position is continuing to erode. The percentage of Americans who say they are willing to wait "at least a little while longer" to resolve this issue has dropped sharply from 51% last week to 37% last night, while the percentage who say Gore should concede has risen from 46% to 56% in the same series of polls. 2. Bush Strategy As early as today Bush transition officials tell us he could start naming his cabinet and make a new decision on his US Supreme Court challenge. One thing to keep firmly in mind, although the press is full of Andrew Card news today, the real power of the Bush throne will be Vice President Cheney. He is emerging as the great hope for Bush staffers who are already growing frustrated with the lack of focus and disorientation of Bush's "Texas league" inner circle. In the meantime, don't expect Bush to do anything but seek to accelerate the trend in the polls breaking against Gore. On one front, Bush is considering a proposal to drop his Supreme Court appeal before oral arguments are heard this Friday. Although he would position this decision as a "peace offering" to Gore, the real reasons are far more self-serving. In the first place, Bush no longer gets anything from the Court (unless Gore wins on one of his new lawsuits, and even then Bush could re-file with the Court for relief), but Gore could get an affirmation that recounts should be conducted; that would be a huge victory in the public opinion arena for the vice president. In the second place, Bush realizes that the looming Supreme Court battle gives Gore what little public relations "cover" he has to pursue all the other court battles in Florida -- as long as the election remains undetermined because of Bush's lawsuit, Gore can justify asking the American public to hang on a little longer. 3. Bush Cabinet Appointees Imminent? But Bush is moving on another front, and he is now expected to name at least some of his senior cabinet appointments as early as this week. The names he is considering are all people who have agreed to serve in his cabinet and whom he has long since chosen to serve. Naming some of the new Bush cabinet members in public, Bush officials believe, would increase the voters' sense that this will be a moderate administration of household names they can trust. That is why the transition team wants to announce Colin Powell as Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice as National Security Advisor and Sam Nunn as Defense Secretary as soon as possible, even though Nunn is playing hard to get. There is a complication to the strategy since Powell wants to avoid becoming a political pawn and Nunn cannot afford to be part of this strategy right now, since enraged Democrats would lynch him for "treason." What Bush wants, of course, is a pre-set senior foreign policy team made up of two African-Americans and a Democrat. Only one economic team decision has been made. Bush will name Larry Lindsey to one of the top three economic jobs in the new administration (Treasury Secretary, National Economic Council Director or head of the Council of Economic Advisers) and we expect Lindsey to run much of the new administration's economic policy from whatever slot he eventually occupies. Think of this as the Bob Rubin model. Rubin did not serve as Treasury Secretary during the first Clinton period, but ran things from within the White House.
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