Enron Mail

From:tyrell.harrison@enron.com
To:mark.whitt@enron.com
Subject:WBI Base Case and Sensitivities
Cc:tyrell.harrison@enron.com
Bcc:tyrell.harrison@enron.com
Date:Tue, 25 Sep 2001 12:36:22 -0700 (PDT)



Valuation Date: 12/31/2002
Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11
Withdrawal Capability 40% 90,000 54,000 32,400 19,440 11,664 6,998 4,199 2,519 1,512
Days 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365 365
Withdrawn MMBtu 32,850,000 19,710,000 11,826,000 7,095,600 4,257,360 2,554,416 1,532,650 919,590 254,385

Beginning MMBtu 81,000,000 48,150,000 28,440,000 16,614,000 9,518,400 5,261,040 2,706,624 1,173,974 254,385
Ending MMBtu 48,150,000 28,440,000 16,614,000 9,518,400 5,261,040 2,706,624 1,173,974 254,385 -

Price (CIG) 2.67 2.81 2.91 3.00 3.09 3.18 3.27 3.38 3.48
Revenue 87,639,694 55,363,748 34,400,849 21,273,200 13,143,535 8,116,018 5,016,490 3,111,049 884,771
Opex 15% (13,145,954) (8,304,562) (5,160,127) (3,190,980) (1,971,530) (1,217,403) (752,473) (466,657) (132,716)
74,493,740 47,059,185 29,240,721 18,082,220 11,172,004 6,898,616 4,264,016 2,644,391 752,055

Discounting 10% 0.954 0.867 0.788 0.717 0.651 0.592 0.538 0.489 0.445
$191,939,467
($28,790,920)
Value $163,148,547
Basis @ $.25/M 30,000,000
$133,148,547

less: Capex (68,000,000)
Net Value $65,148,547
Sensitivities




105,000 90,000 70,000
Year One Avg Rate $70,130,533 $65,148,547 $38,283,088


20% 30% 40%
Extraction Decline Rate $69,975,046 $68,568,401 $65,148,547


10% 20% 30%
Opex (as % of revenue) $74,745,520 $55,551,574 $36,357,627


54,400 68,000 81,600
Capex $78,748,547 $65,148,547 $51,548,547