Evening Peak and MEETING NEXT TUESDAY at 4:30.

Group-
Brace yourselves...
Once more we are experiencing seasonal changes. The time zone change has pu=
shed the evening peak back to HE 18 through HE 19. These hours are now prem=
ium, the load curve no longer resembles a rolling hill but has an extreme m=
orning ramp and an extreme evening ramp. Both EPE and the CAISO in NP-15 wi=
ll have difficulty with this evening ramp. Do not count on the EPE load for=
ecast to accurately identify the evening ramp. We should not suck off the g=
rid. Pay the extra $3 for firm or unit contingent power in the SW. We need =
to attack the evening peak early and make sure we cover it. We should be us=
ing congestion wheels as hedges. A 200 mw import requires a 200 mw wheel go=
ing in the opposite direction at $0.10--or less--we should not do 50 mws at=
$50 as we would still have to pay $50 on the other 150 mws if we get award=
ed all 50 mws of relief. We will discuss this in our meeting next Tuesday N=
ovember 6th at 4:30. Let's be sharp and not give away hard-earned revenue o=
n congestion mis-management or poor scheduling.=20

Any questions? Comments? Ideas? Bring them to the meeting on next Tuesday.

Thanks,

Bill