Enron Mail |
Phil,
Yesterday we had our call to nominate the April LNG ship delivery. We decided to nominate our five day window between April 4 thru 8. PREPA is forecasting a 75% dispatch thru that period. If the dispatch is 75%, we forecast that we would be running out of LNG about on the 8th. Typically, we nominate with a few days cushion against the late delivery date. We decided not to have a few days cushion for the following reasons: 1. We avoid a cash flow shortfall of between $1-5 million (depending on the ship size) prior to April 16, 2001. 2. Inventory projections are based on 100% power plant availability. 3. Based on lastest loading schedules, Cabot is expected to respond with April4-6 delivery window. 4. There is sufficient LPG available to cover several days of LPG operation. 5. In the event that PREPA dispatches higher than 76% (and exposes themselves to SFP), volumes that we have made available to PREPA are priced at $6.75/mmBtu, which should cover our LPG costs. Additionally, the volumes made available would only allow dispatch at about 87%. We are prepared, if necessary, to significantly increase the price of any additional volumes made available to discourage dispatch above 87%. Although our nomination should take care of a cash flow shortfall in April, we will have a problem in May (prior to May 17, 2001) unless we receive insurance money. If we have a problem in May, it is not clear to me that we will be able to draw on the DSR as debt service payments are due only in March, June, September, and December. Our insurance strategy must now include getting at least a partial payment in April. Jaime please undate the cash flow (we will need this to address the Lenders recent request for an update) and advise us of our options assuming we will have a cash flow shortfall in May. Rick
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