FW: CERA's Crude Oil Price Outlook

Note: Update on the oil market outlook. LB

-----Original Message-----
From: webmaster@cera.com [mailto:webmaster@cera.com]
Sent: Monday, October 15, 2001 8:34 AM
To: clients@cera.com
Subject: CERA's Crude Oil Price Outlook - CERA Decision Brief

Title: Crude Oil Price Outlook after September 11
URL(s):

http://www20.cera.com/eprofile?u=35&;m=2743;

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CERA's CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK

In this uncertain environment, CERA has made assumptions about how events will
unfold in order to form a price outlook, and then has assessed the risks.

* CERA's revised oil demand forecast is for a gain of just 0.3 million
barrels per day (mbd) in 2002. The trend during 2002 is for a sharp year-on-
year drop in demand in the first quarter of 0.7 mbd,, followed by a 1.3 mbd
increase in the fourth quarter as economic recovery sets in.

* Contrasting against this message of very weak oil demand growth is CERA's
outlook for a 1.0 mbd year-on-year gain in non-OPEC supply in 2002.

* As a result, the potential exists for a dramatic oversupply of oil next
year unless OPEC restrains its production. CERA's view is that OPEC continues
to restrain production in late 2001 and 2002 in an attempt to shore up prices.

**end**

Follow above URL for complete report (10 printed pages).

E-mail Category: Decision Brief
CERA Knowledge Area(s): Global Oil

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