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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Feb 01, 2002 at 07:= 06AM EST Commentary last updated: Friday, Feb 01, 2002 at 09:07AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulation= s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA= /AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A= MS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe= Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of '= Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Friday, February 1, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 42 +1 ERCOT(SP) 52 +1 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 64 NC MAIN(CTR) 32 +1 MAPP= (HP) 25 +1 NPCC(NE) 46 +5 SERC(SE) 63 NC SPP(SP) 43 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(= RK) 32 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 27 48 36 24 64 48 47 Max 36 36 52 40 31 68= 59 52 Min 27 23 39 33 16 61 41 43 Range 9 13 13 7 15 7 18 9 StD-P 2.2 3.7 = 2.0 2.0 4.2 2.5 4.8 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Ea= ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion= : The last of the warm air will be scoured out of the East today with ne= ar to below normal temperatures for most of the country by early next week.= A very active Southern jet stream could spin up two more significant winte= r storms through next weekend. From the looks of the models today, the pat= tern is about as active as it gets. Imagine the possibilities if only there= was more cold air in the mix. While brutal air is still not expected, the = potential for winter farther South is on the increase next week. We will se= e a temporary break from the storminess over the weekend. The current storm= now in Pennsylvania will move out to sea and drive colder air into the reg= ion. A cool and dry weekend seems to be shaping up for most areas, but a we= ak low will drop out of Canada, across the Lakes and toward New England on = Sund! ay. The current storm will probably drive out most of the available m= oisture, but some lake effect is possible so some light snow amounts should= occur. The next Pacific wave comes ashore in a fairly harmless fashion ini= tially. However, the set up looks favorable for some sort of Low pressure t= o develop in the vicinity of the Gulf coast early next week. It would head = toward the SE US and could be an interesting factor. As far as temperatures= go, the high pressure over the Western Plateau (Colorado and Utah) is keep= ing that region in a trapped cold air mass. The Plains will slowly modify f= rom the current shallow arctic air in place while the East undergoes a rath= er pronounced cooling to near if not slightly below normal levels, a far cr= y from the record highs of the past two weeks. Tomorrow: Saturday, Febru= ary 2, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I= MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 35 +1 ERCOT(SP) 54 +2 FRCC(SE) 72 -2 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(= CTR) 34 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +1 NPCC(NE) 30 +3 SERC(SE) 52 -1 SPP(SP) 45 +2 WSCC(= NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 54 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 29 38 27 54 49 50 Max 35= 40 48 42 33 68 54 54 Min 28 27 19 34 16 45 44 46 Range 7 13 29 8 17 23 10 = 8 StD-P 1.7 3.1 6.6 2.2 4.7 4.7 2.0 2.3 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click= Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day= 3: Sunday, February 3, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit= y Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image= to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 55 -3 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAA= C(NE) 41 +4 MAIN(CTR) 32 -1 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +5 SERC(SE) 51 -1 SP= P(SP) 46 -2 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 36 -1 WSCC(SW) 58 +1 Range Standard= Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 30 31 38 3= 0 53 51 52 Max 32 36 33 42 37 56 55 58 Min 24 24 27 34 22 48 47 48 Range 8 = 12 6 8 15 8 8 10 StD-P 1.8 3.5 1.6 2.6 3.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12= 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatili= ty Matrix Day 4: Monday, February 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta T= emp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 27 -6 ERCOT(SP) 53 -3 FR= CC(SE) 66 -1 MAAC(NE) 32 -7 MAIN(CTR) 28 -3 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 24 -3 S= ERC(SE) 50 -3 SPP(SP) 46 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 36 +2 WSCC(SW) 60 +2 = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me= an 25 31 29 39 28 50 50 55 Max 29 36 32 42 37 57 54 60 Min 19 28 25 35 18 4= 4 45 51 Range 10 8 7 7 19 13 9 9 StD-P 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.9 5.8 4.1 3.2 2.0 Coun= t 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wit= hin the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Tuesday, February 5, 2002 Syncrasy's= Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 -2 E= RCOT(SP) 60 +2 FRCC(SE) 63 -7 MAAC(NE) 31 -6 MAIN(CTR) 31 NC MAPP(HP) 32 +4= NPCC(NE) 24 -2 SERC(SE) 48 -2 SPP(SP) 48 +5 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 41 +4 = WSCC(SW) 60 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 33 24 39 32 47 50 55 Max 31 39 30 43 42 54 57 60 Min= 26 29 17 35 27 40 45 51 Range 5 10 13 8 15 14 12 9 StD-P 1.5 2.1 4.4 2.1 4= .1 3.9 3.1 2.6 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weathe= r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6= -10 day period looks colder for the nation as a whole than recent weeks. I = still dont see us bringing in any real brutal arctic air, but the SE ridge = that has been in place for much of January is no more. In all cases, the mo= dels suppress the storm track to the Southern U.S. which opens the door to = another potentially major winter storm, but quite a bit farther South than = the last one. The solutions are all over the place which one would expect t= his far out. One aspect that struck me as noteworthy was the Canadian's dep= iction of a large arctic high over the Northern U.S. It has had it for thre= e runs in a row, but given the high surface pressures does not look as cold= as I would have expected. It's just another product of a strange winter I = suspect. So, while I still am not in any kind of arctic camp on this, I do = be! lieve the areas of above normal temperatures will be very limited. I lo= ok for most areas to run near or slightly below normal. Day 6: Wednesday= , February 6, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMA= GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 38 +3 ERCOT(SP) 62 +3 FRCC(SE) 66 -3 MAAC(NE) 39 +1 MAIN(CTR) 36 +1 MAPP= (HP) 34 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 +3 SERC(SE) 52 +3 SPP(SP) 51 +3 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(= RK) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 60 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 36 27 39 34 48 52 55 Max 35 40 34 42 42 54= 59 60 Min 30 31 23 33 25 41 47 51 Range 5 9 11 9 17 13 12 9 StD-P 1.6 2.5 = 2.2 3.3 5.5 3.7 3.4 2.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weath= er Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Thursday, February = 7, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE]= ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 43 +4 MAIN(CTR) = 36 -1 MAPP(HP) 31 NC NPCC(NE) 34 +5 SERC(SE) 57 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +1 WSCC(NW) 4= 4 +1 WSCC(RK) 39 NC WSCC(SW) 60 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM= AGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 34 33 38 33 52 55 54 Max 35 41 3= 7 44 42 59 60 60 Min 32 28 28 34 23 46 51 51 Range 3 13 9 10 19 13 9 9 StD-= P 0.8 3.8 2.0 3.1 5.6 3.4 2.8 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Friday, F= ebruary 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 +2 ERCOT(SP) 61 +5 FRCC(SE) 59 +1 MAAC(NE) 38 +4 M= AIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 26 -6 NPCC(NE) 35 +9 SERC(SE) 50 +6 SPP(SP) 44 -4 W= SCC(NW) 39 +6 WSCC(RK) 29 +1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1 Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 34 35 39 33 53 57 53 Ma= x 36 38 38 44 41 59 61 60 Min 27 31 32 34 26 48 49 47 Range 9 7 6 10 15 11 = 12 13 StD-P 2.6 1.6 1.3 3.2 4.8 3.7 2.4 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Her= e to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: = Saturday, February 9, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility = Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image t= o enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 +2 ERCOT(SP) 56 -5 FRCC(SE) 63 NC MAAC(= NE) 36 +6 MAIN(CTR) 30 -7 MAPP(HP) 29 -1 NPCC(NE) 27 +3 SERC(SE) 52 +3 SPP(= SP) 45 +2 WSCC(NW) 41 +4 WSCC(RK) 30 +12 WSCC(SW) 59 +9 Range Standard = Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 34 32 39 32= 54 57 55 Max 36 39 38 45 44 60 63 61 Min 30 31 26 36 25 49 49 48 Range 6 8= 12 9 19 11 14 13 StD-P 1.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 5.2 3.1 3.8 4.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8= 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matr= ix Day 10: Sunday, February 10, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 57 +9 FRCC(SE)= 64 -5 MAAC(NE) 42 +5 MAIN(CTR) 26 -6 MAPP(HP) 16 -7 NPCC(NE) 39 +13 SERC(S= E) 48 -5 SPP(SP) 44 +5 WSCC(NW) 36 -1 WSCC(RK) 34 +5 WSCC(SW) 61 +6 Ran= ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28= 26 31 33 22 50 50 47 Max 36 31 39 36 35 51 55 61 Min 23 21 19 29 9 48 45 3= 3 Range 13 10 20 7 26 3 10 28 StD-P 3.9 3.3 5.4 3.0 11.1 1.5 3.1 12.5 Count= 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V= olatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the= [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can a= lso be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.true= quote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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