|
|
Enron Mail |
[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Monday, Jan 28, 2002 at 07:= 44AM EST Commentary last updated: Monday, Jan 28, 2002 at 09:13AM EST M= eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulation= s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA= /AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A= MS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe= Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of '= Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Monday, January 28, 2002 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 54 -1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +1 FRCC(SE) 78 -2 MAAC(NE) 61 +1 MAIN(CTR) 44 -1 MAPP(= HP) 23 NC NPCC(NE) 52 +2 SERC(SE) 69 -1 SPP(SP) 64 -3 WSCC(NW) 33 -1 WSCC(R= K) 34 +2 WSCC(SW) 49 -1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 25 47 30 32 67 69 44 Max 46 35 56 33 41 72 = 73 51 Min 31 16 41 25 27 62 65 40 Range 15 19 15 8 14 10 8 11 StD-P 2.8 4.1= 4.3 2.4 3.9 2.9 2.4 3.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See E= ach Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussio= n: Summer-type ridge in the SE to get beaten down by approaching U.S. sto= rm. Trough to develop in the East turning the pattern to a normal to below = normal temperature regime. We are looking at a deep trough in the West an= d strong ridge in the East on this mornings weather maps. Dozens of record = highs were set this weekend from the Plains eastward while it was cold enou= gh in the NW for snow in Seattle. Things are on the move now which should e= nd the warmth for most areas by the end of the week. Relative to recent wee= ks, it certainly looks a lot colder, but when one considers the time of yea= r and steps back, well most areas just don't get that cold. This looks to m= e to be the type of situation where it will be colder in the Plains and the= n modify as it heads East. This has a similar feel to what happened in lat!= e December. At the moment, we are devoid of snow cover, so I have a diffic= ult time getting too pumped up over all of this. Speaking of snow, the West= ern U.S. system may produce some moderate snows over the far North and Lake= s as it pushes from the High Plains NE to Canada. This does not appear to b= e a situation that favors any East Coast winter storm development. Short te= rm numbers will still show warmth in the East, but that is a function of th= e next couple of days. The Western and Central U.S. temperature departures = are already below normal and that trend will shift East later this week. = Tomorrow: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Vo= latility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click o= n image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 52 +1 ERCOT(SP) 75 +2 FRCC(SE) 81= NC MAAC(NE) 59 -1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +6 MAPP(HP) 21 +4 NPCC(NE) 44 -4 SERC(SE) 7= 3 +1 SPP(SP) 61 +11 WSCC(NW) 31 -2 WSCC(RK) 24 -2 WSCC(SW) 47 -1 Range = Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 23= 48 29 23 69 69 43 Max 41 26 56 33 39 75 73 49 Min 25 16 42 23 15 65 66 38 = Range 16 10 14 10 24 10 7 11 StD-P 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 5.8 3.0 2.4 3.9 Count 14= 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within = the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Wednesday, January 30, 2002 Syncrasy's Cho= ice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +6 ERCOT= (SP) 64 +3 FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 59 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 +1 MAPP(HP) 14 -6 NP= CC(NE) 41 +8 SERC(SE) 73 +5 SPP(SP) 38 +1 WSCC(NW) 35 -2 WSCC(RK) 17 -8 WSC= C(SW) 47 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW = RK SE SP SW Mean 33 17 46 31 16 70 63 42 Max 39 25 51 35 26 75 72 47 Min 29= 12 41 27 9 65 57 37 Range 10 13 10 8 17 10 15 10 StD-P 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 4.7= 3.1 3.4 3.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Weather = Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Thursday, January 31, = 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] = ECAR(CTR) 47 +8 ERCOT(SP) 55 +5 FRCC(SE) 80 +1 MAAC(NE) 51 +5 MAIN(CTR) 28 = -2 MAPP(HP) 16 -9 NPCC(NE) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 67 +4 SPP(SP) 35 -7 WSCC(NW) 39 -= 1 WSCC(RK) 25 -6 WSCC(SW) 50 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE= ] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 18 41 34 19 69 51 44 Max 35 23 48 3= 9 25 74 60 50 Min 27 14 35 30 12 66 45 39 Range 8 9 13 9 13 8 15 11 StD-P 2= .2 2.7 4.1 1.4 3.4 2.3 4.1 3.2 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to= See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: Frid= ay, February 1, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enla= rge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 33 -1 ERCOT(SP) 53 -2 FRCC(SE) 77 -1 MAAC(NE) 49= +10 MAIN(CTR) 24 -8 MAPP(HP) 18 -12 NPCC(NE) 40 +9 SERC(SE) 56 +3 SPP(SP) = 41 -5 WSCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 32 -4 WSCC(SW) 53 -1 Range Standard Devia= tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 23 43 35 23 60 4= 5 47 Max 28 28 50 41 32 69 51 53 Min 17 18 33 31 15 55 36 42 Range 11 10 17= 10 17 14 15 11 StD-P 2.6 3.2 4.8 1.8 4.3 3.8 5.2 2.7 Count 10 10 10 10 10 = 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatilit= y Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 day period looks chilly, but har= dly cold and also may be very quiet. The SE ridge is replaced by a trough i= n the means so we should not see the recent spring regime. The trend over t= he Western part of the continent ( US and Canada) is for Pacific zonal flow= . The real bitter cold that has been in Canada the last several weeks shoul= d gradually modify. We will likely see two distinct branches in the jet str= eam, an arctic branch in the North and subtropical branch in the South. We = get our big storms and bitter cold outbreaks when they phase(come together)= . Most of the extreme forecasts you see come together when this phasing occ= urs. I can not rule it out in the future, but it looks unlikely to me for n= ow. To me, the bottom line for this period(and beyond)is for a slight cold = bias East and a close to normal look elsewhere.! Day 6: Saturday, Febr= uary 2, 2002 Click Here for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 = -6 ERCOT(SP) 53 -3 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 38 -1 MAIN(CTR) 28 -7 MAPP(HP) 2= 6 -5 NPCC(NE) 28 -1 SERC(SE) 51 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 35= -3 WSCC(SW) 55 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 24 28 27 37 26 51 47 50 Max 28 33 38 40 35 61 55 55= Min 18 25 15 32 19 42 40 46 Range 10 8 23 8 16 19 15 9 StD-P 2.6 2.0 5.2 2= .5 5.0 5.8 4.6 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Fo= recast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Sunday, February 3, 2002= Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR= (CTR) 33 -5 ERCOT(SP) 58 -2 FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 36 -5 MAIN(CTR) 31 -3 M= APP(HP) 27 -2 NPCC(NE) 26 -7 SERC(SE) 53 -2 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WS= CC(RK) 37 NC WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 31 27 37 29 51 50 51 Max 31 35 34 42 38= 56 56 56 Min 23 28 19 34 23 46 42 48 Range 8 7 15 8 15 10 14 8 StD-P 2.0 1= .7 3.6 1.9 4.5 3.2 4.3 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each We= ather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Monday, February= 4, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][= IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAG= E] ECAR(CTR) 31 -4 ERCOT(SP) 55 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -4 MAAC(NE) 31 -3 MAIN(CTR= ) 33 -3 MAPP(HP) 31 -4 NPCC(NE) 24 -6 SERC(SE) 44 -4 SPP(SP) 42 -2 WSCC(NW)= 35 -3 WSCC(RK) 24 -3 WSCC(SW) 51 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [= IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 32 29 39 30 51 54 53 Max 33 37= 34 42 40 56 58 58 Min 28 31 26 35 24 47 48 51 Range 5 6 8 7 16 9 10 7 StD-= P 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.6 4.9 3.0 2.3 2.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Tuesday, F= ebruary 5, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 -3 ERCOT(SP) 54 NC FRCC(SE) 65 -1 MAAC(NE) 40 -1 M= AIN(CTR) 28 -7 MAPP(HP) 23 -14 NPCC(NE) 33 -1 SERC(SE) 49 -1 SPP(SP) 39 -7 = WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 30 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 +1 Range Standard Deviation [= IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 32 31 39 33 53 53 54 M= ax 34 37 36 43 40 57 57 59 Min 27 30 25 36 28 49 50 52 Range 7 7 11 7 12 8 = 7 7 StD-P 1.6 2.3 3.2 2.0 3.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here = to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: = Wednesday, February 6, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility= Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image = to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 22 -18 ERCOT(SP) 55 -3 FRCC(SE) 61 -5 MAA= C(NE) 30 -7 MAIN(CTR) 18 -25 MAPP(HP) 22 -19 NPCC(NE) 34 NC SERC(SE) 42 -7 = SPP(SP) 47 -4 WSCC(NW) 38 +3 WSCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 53 +3 Range Standa= rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 26 29 32= 21 47 47 44 Max 28 35 34 38 30 49 54 53 Min 15 17 16 23 11 45 40 32 Range = 13 18 18 15 19 4 14 21 StD-P 3.5 7.4 4.5 4.8 7.9 0.9 5.7 8.6 Count 6 6 6 6 = 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility= Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]= Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be vi= ewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com= [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
|