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[IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Tuesday, Feb 05, 2002 at 07= :07AM EST Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Feb 05, 2002 at 09:08AM EST = Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote Congratulati= ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI= LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:= AMS or Aquila New! << Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Ado= be Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of= 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Tuesday, February 5, 2002= Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR= (CTR) 33 -2 ERCOT(SP) 46 +1 FRCC(SE) 64 NC MAAC(NE) 35 -1 MAIN(CTR) 32 -3 M= APP(HP) 32 +1 NPCC(NE) 25 +1 SERC(SE) 43 NC SPP(SP) 36 NC WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WS= CC(RK) 34 NC WSCC(SW) 58 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 32 25 38 26 46 44 52 Max 34 39 30 41 34= 49 46 57 Min 25 26 20 35 17 43 41 49 Range 9 13 10 6 17 6 5 8 StD-P 2.6 3.= 1 2.5 1.9 4.8 1.7 1.1 2.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See = Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussi= on: There is still no true arctic air in the pattern, but the Southern je= t stream is active for storms and the trend is certainly colder than recent= weeks. We have seen a definitive change in the weather pattern from last= month. January on the whole featured the strong ridge and unseasonable war= mth in the Eastern U.S. while the West had a trough and occasional record b= reaking cold. If you smooth out the maps, we will see in general a reversal= over the next two weeks with a trough in the East and Ridge in the West. I= still don't see any highlight making cold with this trough, but a "cold an= d stormy" projection does not seem unreasonable for the East. We have this = morning a storm in the South that will bring snow to Oklahoma and NW Texas = today with rain farther South. It will track towards the SE U.S. coast thro= ugh Th! ursday then appears to move out to sea. The Interior SE may see som= e light to moderate snow with this, but otherwise will be a rainmaker. This= should be the most significant weather maker in the short term. The coldes= t of the air in the short term covers the Eastern U.S. right now. This shou= ld start modifying although only in a gradual sense through the rest of the= week. Tomorrow: Wednesday, February 6, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delt= a Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAG= E] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +1 ERCOT(SP) 49 -4= FRCC(SE) 72 NC MAAC(NE) 42 +1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +2 MAPP(HP) 38 +3 NPCC(NE) 31 += 3 SERC(SE) 44 NC SPP(SP) 39 -2 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 38 +1 WSCC(SW) 58 NC= Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW= Mean 34 36 28 40 32 50 45 54 Max 42 45 35 43 39 52 49 58 Min 31 29 25 36 2= 5 48 40 50 Range 11 16 10 7 14 4 9 8 StD-P 2.3 3.6 2.9 2.1 4.1 0.8 2.2 2.4 = Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Thursday, February 7, 2002 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 42 = +3 ERCOT(SP) 60 -1 FRCC(SE) 73 +3 MAAC(NE) 46 +5 MAIN(CTR) 41 +5 MAPP(HP) 3= 8 +9 NPCC(NE) 33 +4 SERC(SE) 49 -2 SPP(SP) 50 -1 WSCC(NW) 43 NC WSCC(RK) 42= +2 WSCC(SW) 60 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 37 34 39 36 51 50 55 Max 40 43 39 44 42 54 57 60= Min 30 32 31 36 29 49 45 51 Range 10 11 8 8 13 5 12 9 StD-P 2.9 3.5 1.7 2.= 9 3.8 1.2 3.8 2.4 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each Wea= ther Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Friday, February = 8, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE= ] ECAR(CTR) 44 +9 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CTR)= 42 +12 MAPP(HP) 39 +13 NPCC(NE) 35 +3 SERC(SE) 58 +2 SPP(SP) 55 +3 WSCC(NW= ) 44 NC WSCC(RK) 43 +2 WSCC(SW) 62 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] = [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 38 34 40 35 53 56 57 Max 41 4= 3 39 44 44 60 62 62 Min 31 34 28 34 29 48 51 53 Range 10 9 11 10 15 12 11 9= StD-P 2.1 3.3 2.8 2.9 4.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click = Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day= 5: Saturday, February 9, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatil= ity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on ima= ge to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +8 ERCOT(SP) 65 -2 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 M= AAC(NE) 48 +9 MAIN(CTR) 38 +3 MAPP(HP) 32 NC NPCC(NE) 38 +10 SERC(SE) 60 +3= SPP(SP) 51 -4 WSCC(NW) 45 +3 WSCC(RK) 39 -2 WSCC(SW) 65 +3 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 36 37 4= 3 35 56 55 60 Max 39 42 41 47 43 62 61 64 Min 31 31 28 36 25 51 51 55 Range= 8 11 13 11 18 11 10 9 StD-P 2.8 3.0 2.3 2.1 4.7 2.9 3.9 2.0 Count 10 10 10= 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vo= latility Matrix Day 6-10 Discussion: The same threats and questions rai= sed yesterday in the 6-10 day outlook still apply today. The Canadian and E= uropean schemes still look sharper with the western ridge and eastern troug= h than their American counterpart. The correct forecast up to now most of t= he time was to go with the warmer solution. This time I am running with the= colder one. The Canadian model has been consistent with a stronger Eastern= trough since the middle of last week. It brings a moderate batch of arctic= air next week into the Eastern U.S. The potential of some sort of East coa= st storm also remains in this pattern. I am not by any means forecasting an= y brutal cold, but I am going against yesterdays NWS 6-10 and 8-4 day outlo= oks which are above normal in the Eastern U.S. I believe most of the region= will grade out slightly below normal instead while th! e West is in a mode= rating phase. Day 6: Sunday, February 10, 2002 Click Here for Syncra= sy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatilit= y Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image= to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 -2 ERCOT(SP) 64 -4 FRCC(SE) 70 -4 MAA= C(NE) 46 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 NC MAPP(HP) 33 +4 NPCC(NE) 40 +12 SERC(SE) 56 -4 S= PP(SP) 54 +1 WSCC(NW) 44 +3 WSCC(RK) 44 +6 WSCC(SW) 63 +3 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 40 38 40 = 40 53 55 60 Max 36 45 42 45 46 60 61 64 Min 28 35 33 36 32 48 48 55 Range 8= 10 9 9 14 12 13 9 StD-P 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.3 2.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat= rix Day 7: Monday, February 11, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click= on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 +1 ERCOT(SP) 66 -1 FRCC(SE) = 70 -5 MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 +5 MAPP(HP) 30 +1 NPCC(NE) 37 +3 SERC(SE)= 59 -1 SPP(SP) 55 +5 WSCC(NW) 41 -1 WSCC(RK) 38 +4 WSCC(SW) 59 +1 Range= Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 3= 7 36 37 36 53 59 56 Max 43 41 40 47 47 61 64 64 Min 32 35 28 29 31 46 53 48= Range 11 6 12 18 16 15 11 16 StD-P 3.0 1.7 2.5 5.7 4.9 3.6 2.2 4.9 Count 9= 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vol= atility Matrix Day 8: Tuesday, February 12, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: D= elta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64= +8 FRCC(SE) 65 -6 MAAC(NE) 46 -5 MAIN(CTR) 36 +10 MAPP(HP) 21 -3 NPCC(NE) = 37 -5 SERC(SE) 57 -5 SPP(SP) 47 +13 WSCC(NW) 31 -4 WSCC(RK) 16 -7 WSCC(SW) = 44 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE = SP SW Mean 34 33 37 38 29 57 59 53 Max 37 45 45 45 46 62 64 62 Min 32 24 29= 29 15 52 55 44 Range 5 21 16 16 31 10 9 18 StD-P 1.2 4.8 3.5 5.1 9.4 1.9 2= .1 6.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used = Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 Syncra= sy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 41 = +10 ERCOT(SP) 47 +1 FRCC(SE) 70 -1 MAAC(NE) 51 +12 MAIN(CTR) 23 -6 MAPP(HP)= 21 -12 NPCC(NE) 42 +12 SERC(SE) 58 +4 SPP(SP) 33 -6 WSCC(NW) 32 -5 WSCC(RK= ) 22 -6 WSCC(SW) 48 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg C= T HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 32 33 37 38 31 58 51 54 Max 40 38 45 46 40 61 6= 3 60 Min 26 25 29 32 21 53 44 48 Range 14 13 16 14 19 8 19 12 StD-P 3.4 4.8= 4.0 4.9 7.0 2.4 6.4 4.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weat= her Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Thursday, Februar= y 14, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMA= GE] ECAR(CTR) 25 -8 ERCOT(SP) 51 +1 FRCC(SE) 66 NC MAAC(NE) 48 +16 MAIN(C= TR) 27 -8 MAPP(HP) 28 -9 NPCC(NE) 43 +18 SERC(SE) 46 +1 SPP(SP) 41 -4 WSCC(= NW) 33 -4 WSCC(RK) 28 -7 WSCC(SW) 49 -5 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE= ] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 28 34 34 23 49 42 45 Max 27= 31 44 37 29 54 49 54 Min 19 22 23 31 12 42 31 38 Range 8 9 21 6 17 12 18 1= 6 StD-P 2.1 2.7 6.8 1.7 5.7 2.8 7.0 5.3 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here t= o See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Sum= mary is designed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, Rain= bowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncras= y.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09
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